Ryan Schoen

Research, reports, data, visualizations and commentary:

#economy 💸 #markets 📈 #housing 🏘 #demographics 👶 #mortgages 📝

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

All 4 mortgage app. indices are posting their strongest numbers for this time of year since 2022. Purchase applications are up 10.8% annually, refinance up 25.1%, rate-and-term up 50.9%, and cash-out up 15.6%.

Fed's hawkishness pushed 10-2Y spreads down

https://t.co/ly8apkThi8

[Zach Rector @ZachRector7]

Crypto bear market wrapping up between now and mid terms.
Then we run into 2029.
Generational run if we play it right!

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

If you're wondering why the market is green today:

The ethics clause on the CLARITY Act appears to be resolved.

That single provision, the conflict-of-interest rule around government officials' crypto holdings, is what held this entire bill hostage for months. Democrats pushed hard for it while Trump kept filling his bags with one crypto scheme after another and dumping on retail.

But it now seems like real progress has finally been made, with the White House reportedly conceding to language described as "more aggressive than anything seen before."

Next up: a Senate floor vote before Congress leaves for August recess on Aug 7th.

Why this is arguably the single biggest catalyst crypto and especially alts have right now (and maybe ever had):

CLARITY ends the decade-long jurisdictional war between the SEC and CFTC and permanently codifies which assets are commodities into federal law. No future administration can undo it with a memo. It replaces a decade of "regulation by enforcement" with actual written rules.

What that unlocks:

Institutional capital that has been stuck on the sidelines. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and the largest asset managers can't hold unclassified assets for compliance reasons. Remove that barrier and they can finally allocate using the exact same frameworks they use for equities and bonds.

JPMorgan itself literally called this the trigger that opens the floodgates.

On top of that, we get real developer protection, which means more innovation from talent that finally isn't scared away anymore.

And real user protection, with rules that would have made any FTX-like collapse structurally impossible. The same kind of collapse we're still suffering from reputationally to this day.

And here's the tell: look how much the market moved on just a small procedural win like this. Now imagine what happens when the whole thing actually passes.

For reference, when the GENIUS Act was signed last July, total crypto market cap crossed $4 trillion for the first time.

CLARITY is bigger. Much bigger.

[Jason Lewris @jasonlewris]

Half of all homebuilder listings in Texas are now cutting prices to find a buyer.

[Nick | Crypto Crusader @NCashOfficial]

Clarity Act is now becoming an emergency legislation.

[Emily Wilkins @emrwilkins]

On crypto - Moreno told me this evening that "The president has agreed to the most aggressive ethics language in the history of the United States."

"It’s up to Democrats whether they want to accept yes for an answer," he added.

D's and R's plan to meet on bill tomorrow.

[BSCN @BSCNews]

Trump Clears Path For CLARITY Act Vote With Ethics Deal

US President Donald Trump has agreed to an ethics provision that could unlock passage of major crypto legislation.

An industry source told The Block the agreement came Monday evening after months of stalled talks.

The provision addresses how officials can profit from digital assets while in office. Democrats reportedly have not yet seen the finalized text. Bill language is expected within days.

The bill would give the SEC and CFTC joint oversight of digital assets.

Lawmakers have until early August to bring it to a vote. If passed, it heads back to the House before reaching Trump's desk.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

Didn’t expect this, positive development.

[Dr Martin Hiesboeck @MHiesboeck]

Prepare for the biggest bull market crypto has ever seen.

[DTCC @The_DTCC]

Today.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.

A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the campaign donations they receive, and the companies their votes directly impact.

It scored all 540 politicians currently in Congress. And the numbers are crazy:

56% of every stock purchase made by Congress in the last 16 months was on a stock directly affected by a bill the buyer later voted on. That is 6,170 out of 11,016 total purchases.

More than HALF of all congressional stock buys are on companies whose fate that same politician is about to decide.

343 of 540 Congress members actively trade stocks while holding access to nonpublic legislative information.

That is 63.8% of the entire legislature making market bets with an informational edge that would put any hedge fund manager in prison.

The AI identified 752 active "Triple Signals" in the current Congress. A Triple Signal fires when three conditions line up at once:

The politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, they traded stock in a company affected by that bill, AND they received campaign contributions from that same industry.

Bills carrying these insider indicators pass at 5.4 TIMES the normal rate.

Now look at the individual leaderboard:

- Nancy Pelosi's estimated portfolio sits at $194 million with a Greediness score of 98.1 out of 100
- Ro Khanna made 13,231 trades across 800+ different tickers
- Michael McCaul made 32,302 trades and filed 6,670 of them late
- Thomas Suozzi filed 86.4% of his trades late with an average delay of 396 days, meaning his disclosures landed over a YEAR after he made the trade

And then there is Lisa McClain, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House. She has made 1,443 trades in three years, more than 98% of all politicians tracked.

She violated the STOCK Act twice in a single year, disclosing up to $900,000 in trades months after the legal deadline. Her husband bought up to $250,000 in Elon Musk's xAI, which quietly converted into SpaceX equity before last Friday's $2 trillion IPO.

The penalty for all of this? A $200 fine.

The number of Congress members ever prosecuted under the STOCK Act since it passed in 2012? Zero.

And the cruelest part is this:

A bill to ban congressional stock trading was introduced in January 2026. It has bipartisan support. Over 80% of American voters want it passed.

But Congress is sitting on it, because the people who would have to vote yes are the same people making millions from the system staying exactly the way it is.

They write the insider trading laws, they exempt themselves from enforcement, they trade on the information those laws generate, and when they get caught, they pay a fine that is basically nothing.

The AI didn't discover anything Congress was hiding. It just organized what was already public into a pattern so obvious that nobody can pretend it isn't there anymore.

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

📈 Markets Rally as Peace Prospects Brighten

Progress toward a peace deal has sent stock prices higher, oil prices lower, and yields falling. Easing energy costs could translate into meaningful relief on inflation and mortgage rates in the months ahead.

https://t.co/bCUsyi22Af

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

The AI revolution isn’t just transforming technology it's creating powerful new housing demand. Data center construction has surpassed $50 billion annually, with a 70-85% probability of boosting or stabilizing home prices in nearby communities.

https://t.co/z4DXtBHbl0

[Senator Cynthia Lummis @SenLummis]

The Clarity Act is not just a crypto bill. It's a decision about whether America leads the next financial system or watches from the sidelines.

[Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist @vandell33]

Undervalued digital assets will mint many millionaires once the macro conditions finally shift and monetary policy pivots.

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

Temporary pandemic stimulus initially fueled record stock wealth, which ignited sticky inflation, compressed real disposable incomes, & drained consumer savings down to 2.6%. This exact sequence explains the current product market share to finance a home.

https://t.co/XwLyuSLYIi

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

Mortgage rates are in the 6.4-6.8% range, inventory is quietly climbing back up, homes are sitting on the market a little longer than they were a year ago. Translation? Buyers have more breathing room, sellers need to come in with realistic expectations.

https://t.co/twixDx1MHG

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

📈This “higher for longer” regime fits the current resilient growth + sticky inflation readings we have recently observed in all four leading inflation indicators (CPI, PCE, PPI, and ECI), meaning no rapid decline in rates should be anticipated.

https://t.co/WnaNjYx7Cu

[Patrick Witt @patrickjwitt]

It’s not limited to the UK. The entire world is waiting for the U.S. to lead the way on regulatory treatment of digital assets.

[Ryan Schoen @RyanSchoen88]

🤨The wild card for where mortgage rates go from here, by way of the foreign exchange and bond markets, could have much to do with what Japan does next and not what the Fed does next

🏡2025 HMDA Data in Review as well

https://t.co/p3aA7pA4Tg