Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa

Geopolitics strategist |
EU-Asia Consultant
@HKUniversity (European Programe)

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

Across my conversations in Taiwan, one conviction surfaced with striking consistency:

“our mission is to make China believe that an attack would be catastrophic”.

For @ChinaUSFocus, I claim that Trump reduced the island to a geography problem:

https://t.co/ijmwoqNQHh

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

Trump’s visit to Xi carries unusual weight.

Liberation Day was aimed at China from the start, even though its shockwaves hit the entire global economy.

In my article for @ChinaUSFocus I analyze wider implications

#geopolitics

Credits @GettyImages

https://t.co/sdWEDEWgK5

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

Most of the articles on the Iran war are written for the news cycle. This one was written for the geopolitical consequences.

That is why is aging well.

Selected as Quote of the Week by the publisher, @ChinaUSFocus.

https://t.co/xdcXyW04eP

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

The most consequential threat to Europe has not arrived from Moscow, Beijing, or Washington. It has been manufactured, word by word, policy reversal by policy reversal, by von der Leyen

Becoming the EU’s most reliable liability

For @asiatimesonline

https://t.co/9gIdKPuaBl

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

Two pieces in SCMP's opinion pages showing divisions over Spain's China policy

1. Why Spain’s ‘fruit bowl’ diplomacy with China comes up rather empty
2. Why Spain’s outreach to China offers a viable model for Europe

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

1. By @s_contin: After 4 visits and zero concessions from Beijing, Sanchez boasts Spain enjoys the highest-level political dialogue with China in 53 years. The contrast between what he declares and secures is neat: historic interlocution, offal; strategic dialogue, pistachios.

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

For @SCMP_Opinion: “Why Spain’s ‘fruit bowl’ diplomacy with China comes up rather empty”

https://t.co/NBfzxyA1yM

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

What’s your way for separating a leader’s morals from their actual working record?

There is 1 politician in 2026 who has induced a great portion of the international community to evaluate him exclusively on what he wishes, rather than what he does.

He is the Premier of Spain

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

1. Spain does not / will not, shape EU’s China policy

2. A special bilateral China-Spain is a myth; Madrid faces same market barriers as the rest

3. After 4 visits - 0 concessions, deals are reduced to a grocery basket: almonds/persimmons/pork/cherries/pistachios/poultry/figs

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

One year on, “Liberation Day” reads less as a show of strength than a case study in misreading power. The tariffs dominated headlines, but the geopolitical consequences have unfolded elsewhere.

The real legacy is the gap between intention and outcome.

https://t.co/sdWEDEWgK5

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

Visit of Taiwan’s KMT leader to Xi Jinping begins in Beijing. It invites sharply different readings at the extremes; significance will emerge with the evolution of cross-Strait relations

I coud assess a preview for @elconfidencial Thanks to @marscascado!

https://t.co/ZsQqiPwXgW

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

The Iran war is moving fast, yet a recent piece in the @SCMPNews looks past the headlines to a harder question: how much influence do Europe’s most powerful states still have in the region?

I make the case that...

“Germany and France have neither the...

https://t.co/MaSpGT1hOL

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

NEW: In 2021, VDL on Global Gateway: “It doesn't make sense for Europe to build a road between Chinese-owned copper mine & Chinese-owned harbour”

With over €2bn pumped into a flagship project in Africa, is the EU replicating elements of that scenario?

https://t.co/pcTwxnPRF3

[Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa @s_contin]

Iran reveals that Taiwan is the war Europe would never fight. The war answers a question Western governments had long avoided:
After years of pushing NATO towards confrontation with China, would they fight a war it had not chosen together? The answer is no
https://t.co/sXFk70dstM