I don't talk about this one much. On purpose.
$NBIS is almost my biggest position and easily my most loved stock, and I've mostly kept my mouth shut about it while arguing about everything else on this app.
Time to fix that. I just published my full deep dive, months of work: the ~$49B backlog against $530M of 2025 revenue, the NVIDIA relationship that runs equity-deep since December 2024, the acquisition spree almost nobody is tracking (Tavily, Clarifai, Eigen AI, three deals in five months assembling the entire inference stack layer by layer), the Meta deal structure everyone misread, and my own price target system built from backlog conversion math.
Bear ~$140.
Base ~$360.
Bull ~$470+.
From ~$194 today. The math is all shown, check my work.
The market fell 17% on a hypothetical while this company's largest customer poured $60B of concrete in two weeks and a new $1B anchor signed the day after.
Volatility is the tax. The backlog is the product.
Full article below.
HUGE $NBIS news today, showcasing why they're the premier neocloud:
-> Nebius announces a new business model that lets infrastructure partners deploy Nebius’s AI cloud platform in their own AI data centers.
This is so f*cking good.
Simply:
- Nebius will let partners (e.g. DC developers, infra funds, sovereign AI projects) build + pay for data centres.
- Then pair that partner capacity with Nebius's systems, software stackm and customer book.
- Meaning that Nebius can expand their capacity "pool" even faster.
- With no capex or financing risks like debt/dilution.
Also, for Nebius: they get a very high margin rev stream w/ minimal financing requirements.
Since the partners will fund all the expensive stuff like the actual building / power / GPUs.
And then Nebius supplies genuinely scarce stuff like systems architecture / $NVDA supply chain access / software stack. And ofc, the GTM strategy w/ access to Nebius's customers.
Meaning that Nebius would sell a partner's DC capacity via their own in-house Nebius sales org. With identical service levels to their owned sites.
Then, Nebius takes a revenue cut / licensing fees / commissions / committed capacity deals.
Unbelievable from Nebius lol.
Nebius sells out capacity every quarter and sits on ~$46B of contracted backlog (mainly $MSFT and $META).
So their main constraint is nothing to do with customers or tech.
Rather, their limiting factor has been capital + energized power where every GW costs upwards of billions of dollars.
But...this announcement removes the capital constraints to crazy high expansion.
$NBIS for those who are NOT PAYING attention. The SHORT FLOAT in .@nebiusai is now over 30% - 52 million shares are SHORT! This means there is HUNTING PARTY going against this company. Way beyond the arb trades. This is FUEL for the future FIRE. They will cover above $330 mark it down! But for now - THEY R HUNTING WEAK HANDS #tradeideas #stocks #stockmarket https://t.co/rY2rZbwfxe