Saeed Afridi

International Relations, Security & Energy-Security Scholar with a focus on Central Asia. Interests: History, Travel, Reading & Writing Stories

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

@fawadchaudhry @nadeemhaque Caution/aversion advocated by @fawadchaudhry would at best deliver akin to Uzbek/Turkmen, Ethiopia,Panama etc

Decentralised bureaucratic reform advocated by @nadeemhaque results in a path similar to China, Vietnam,Poland

In terms of evidence.. its not even a close contest

5/5

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

@fawadchaudhry @nadeemhaque After some inertia, they experienced exponential results.
Average growth experienced, after inertia, over two decades post decentralisation & localisation of bureaucracy;

China (post Four Modernisations); 10+%
Vietnam (post Doi Moi); 7+%
Poland (post Balcerowicz Plan); 5+%

4/n

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

@MultaniSaint Perhaps that can be argued…

however, then it should naturally lead you to inquire…

why do those placing this as a condition believe there will be no resumption of conflict in which UAE’s facilities would be targeted

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

UAE (finally) quits OPEC

Timing infers Abu Dhabi believes (most likely, has been led to believe) there will NOT be any immediate resumption of conflict in which UAE’s facilities (production, storage or ports) will be targeted

Now.. which side could lead them to believe so

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

It took almost a decade and a half since the discussion
…
but the Persianate Sphere (Turko-Persian Region as you preferred) seems to be re-emerging in a rendition of its relatively unstable pre-1750s form.

@peterfrankopan
Kudos for calling it out back then :)

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

If PakArmy aimed to dispel the widely accepted fear that Pakistan is the most dangerous &/or its military the most ill-disciplined of the nuclear club..this latest stunt is a resounding failure

Pakistan will be a more dangerous state after the proposed amendment is passed

10/10

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

“Pakistan is the most dangerous country among the nuclear powers”
…
“Pakistan’s military is the most ill-disciplined of the nuclear club”

The above statements are oft repeated behind closed doors… & also the most misunderstood inside Pakistan (esp by its military)

1/n

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

Resulting decision making bottleneck invested in a single person provides a terrifying prospect for Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine & escalation ladder in any future conflict
…
something Pak Military, & its civilian validators, seem to have ignored when proposing the amendment

9/n

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

Unstable nuclear power.. Pakistan’s politicians..from the left, right & religious parties..along with key judiciary, media, business/industrial elite.. & military itself…are supporting constitutional amendments akin to the 1933 Enabling Act

What could possibly go wrong ?

:)

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

@MrPamplemousse_ The nature &/or identity of the regime is now immaterial to this inevitability

[Saeed Afridi @safridis]

Peripeteia

Awful haste on part of Israel, accompanied by some terribly hamartian decision making in Washington have now left the world with the INEVITABLE prospect of not just a nuclear armed Iran … but a nuclear armed entire Northern Tier

the question now is simply … when?