Eventually the market tells you what you should have known: the stock doesn't love you back.
Or as @CalmInvestor quotes George Goodman: The stock doesn't know you own it.
https://t.co/FSQP5na62D
Pulak Prasad, one of the leading public market investors, and known for his lazy investing style (buy great businesses and hold forever) on 'not' using AI thus far.
If you narrow your top of funnel through well-thought through signals / proxies such as ROCE (his key filter), and then invest after a lot of primary research (talking to customers / suppliers, management), then AI may not add a lot of value here.
[screenshot from a PDF that is floating around featuring listener's notes + Q&A + transcript from a Pulak Prasad talk]
If you’ve been a stock picker for more than five years, you’ve likely had a Ray Dalio moment. You found an investment opportunity. You built extreme conviction. You told the world about it and maybe got family and friends to buy in. Then you were dead wrong.
We often have such extreme conviction in the beginning of every investment when our expectations are at their peak. We haven’t given the management team, business, external forces enough time to disappoint us.
The more reps we accumulate the more we know this and yet we defend our stock positions and convictions like they are our children. We defend them like our conviction will never waiver, even though it almost always does.
When I was getting started and building my reputation I felt like a street fighter. I was defending my ideas on all fronts. From longs, from shorts, from even myself. It was a full-time job to try to prove how smart I thought I was.
As you mature as a stock picker and accumulate more reps, you start to understand your own base rates (hit rate, payoff ratio, etc). You begin to respect how quickly conviction changes, especially in microcap. You start to understand that businesses don’t operate in a vacuum. Businesses are dynamic and conviction must also be dynamic.
https://t.co/PoFEYFTj4h
@myntra so again i hav jump all the hoops , raise complaint & delivery guy comes pick it up & gives replacement that is 39inch vs original 46inch. now u have made me go through soo much, i have just decided to give up on return/replacement. putting here, bcoz i cant DM you.2/end
@myntra how u manage to create such a beautiful mess. i ordered a gift (46inch full sleeves shirt) & you sent wrong product (46, half sleeves), now while returning delivery guy is not ready to pick up bcoz he is asked to pick up full sleeves 1/n