Manish Bhandari

Investment Manager | Falafal Lover | Novice Pianist | Failed Photographer | Thought provoking views on Investing Landscape

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Sometime in 2001–02, as a 24-year-old research analyst, I took one of the most daunting plunges of my early career.

I walked into Ramon House to present a stock idea to the legendary Sanjoy Bhattacharyya, then CIO of HDFC Mutual Fund.

The stock was a recently listed media company — a market darling of that era. I carried the confidence, perhaps overconfidence, of youth. A close friend had warned me not to attempt the pitch. But I was excited to have earned the opportunity to present before one of India’s finest investment minds.

Sanjoy listened patiently for nearly 20–25 minutes. Then, in less than 25 seconds, he dismantled my entire thesis. It was blunt. It was unfiltered. And it was unforgettable. There are moments in life that do not merely teach you; they take your breath away. For many of us who lived through the first decade of the 2000s as sell-side analysts, such encounters were our real classrooms. That meeting was not just a lesson in stock picking. It was a trial by fire. It permanently raised my standard for research, sharpened my respect for intellectual honesty, and shaped the very DNA of my journey as an investor. As my career progressed, our interactions became limited. But the impact of that one meeting stayed with me for 25 years.

Recently, in Kolkata, I had the profound honour of reuniting with him — this time to moderate the CFA Society India session, Winning Investment Habits | 5th Masters At Work.
In this conversation, we moved away from the noise of markets and the false comfort of 60-page Excel models. We discussed the timeless principles of investing in an age of disruption: the role of luck, the importance of temperament, the limits of technique, and why parts of the AI investment frenzy may eventually meet their nemesis.

Three ideas from the discussion stayed with me deeply:

1. Risk is ignorance: True risk is not merely volatility. It is not understanding what you own. You do not need to be an expert in every sector. But the businesses you choose to own, you must understand exceptionally well.

2. Know thyself: Too many investors try to become the next Warren Buffett. The more important challenge is to understand who you are — your temperament, your biases, your time horizon — and then build an investment framework that is honest to your own nature.

3. The ultimate scorecard: Investing driven purely by greed rarely ends well. Money is only a way of keeping score. The deeper joy of investing lies in continuous learning, intellectual humility, and becoming a better version of oneself.

I invite you to watch the full conversation here:

Instagram link: https://t.co/U3Sf1nqkhm

Youtube link: https://t.co/8c3C1rv7tD

I hope it adds as much value to your investment journey as Sanjoy has added to mine.

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

" There are decades when nothing happens ; There are weeks when decade happens" Silver plunge is unparallel. My team was getting uncomfortable a week back.

[Vallum Capital Advisors @ConnectVallum]

Silver's Golden Run: Is the Ceiling Finally in Sight?

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

In the high-stakes theatre of international diplomacy, silence is rarely just silence. When U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced this January that a landmark trade deal with India had stalled because Prime Minister Narendra Modi "did not call" President Trump to finalize the terms, the explanation was as convenient as it was implausible.

To the casual observer, it painted a picture of bureaucratic hesitation. But to those watching the flow of global capital, the silence on the phone line masked a thunderous shift in the global economic order. While Washington focused on tariffs and trade deficits, New Delhi quietly engineered a financial mechanism that the United States has historically treated as a red line: the ability to buy oil without the dollar.

A rigorous analysis of regulatory filings, central bank data, and geopolitical signalling reveals that the trade impasse of early 2026 is not about almonds or steel. It is the first major casualty of the "Petro-Rupee," a strategy that has placed the world’s oldest democracy and its largest democracy on a collision course over the future of financial sovereignty.

The "Red Line" and the Greenback

To understand the gravity of the rift, one must look past the current headlines to the foundation of American power. Since 1974, when the Nixon administration struck a pact with Saudi Arabia, the global oil trade has been denominated effectively exclusively in U.S. dollars. This "Petrodollar" system forces nations to hold vast dollar reserves, which are recycled back into U.S. Treasury bonds, financing American deficits and cementing the dollar's global supremacy.   History has been unkind to those who challenge this arrangement. When Saddam Hussein switched Iraqi oil sales to the Euro in 2000, or when Muammar Gaddafi proposed a gold-backed African currency in 2011, the geopolitical consequences were severe. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan candidly noted in his memoirs, the Iraq war was "largely about oil"—a resource inseparable from the currency used to buy it.  So is the case with Venenzula and Iran today, which are pricing their oil outside the US dollar system.

For decades, this was a line no ally would cross. But in the shifting landscape of 2026, India has done just that.

The Smoking Gun: August 2025

Picture tells thousand words. The deterioration of economic relations can be traced precisely to mid-2025. While public attention was fixed on diplomatic pleasantries, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was dismantling the "Rupee Trap" that had hindered its trade with Russia in Rupee.

For months, Moscow had been accumulating billions in Indian Rupees from oil sales that it couldn't spend. Then, on August 12, 2025, the RBI issued a quiet but revolutionary circular. It authorized foreign holders of "Special Rupee Vostro Accounts" (SRVAs) to invest their surplus balances into Indian Government Securities and Treasury Bills.   In a move that alarmed U.S. strategists even more, India and the UAE—two key American partners—began operationalizing a Local Currency Settlement system. The Indian Oil Corporation paid for a million barrels of Abu Dhabi crude in rupees, proving the concept worked. By 2025, this corridor had deepened, with the UAE pumping $22.84 billion in foreign direct investment into India to balance the currency flows, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority setting up shop in Gujarat's GIFT City.

This was the smoking gun. By allowing Russia to recycle its oil revenue directly into Indian sovereign debt, New Delhi created a closed-loop financial system. Russian oil profits were no longer chasing U.S. Treasuries; they were funding Indian infrastructure. The reaction from Washington was swift. Within weeks, the U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on select Indian goods—a punitive strike that signal the partnership was in jeopardy.

By late 2025, this alternative financial architecture had expanded far beyond a wartime necessity for Russian oil. The RBI had permitted 123 correspondent banks from 30 countries—including the United Kingdom, Germany, Israel, and Singapore—to open 156 Special Rupee accounts.

The Last Straw: India Takes the Wheel at BRICS

While the "Petro-Rupee" laid the kindling, the spark that finally burned the bridge was India’s bold assumption of leadership within the BRICS currency project. As the host of the 2026 BRICS Summit, New Delhi has moved beyond passive participation to active architecture. The Reserve Bank of India has formally proposed linking the Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) of member nations—a project dubbed the "BRICS Bridge."

Building on the 2025 Rio de Janeiro declaration, India is pushing for a proprietary, interoperable payment rail that would allow Russia, China, India, other BRICS members to settle trade instantly in digital local currencies, completely bypassing the U.S. banking system. This is not merely a theoretical exercise; with the RBI actively pilot-testing the e-Rupee’s cross-border capabilities, India is effectively building a "digital SWIFT" immune to Western sanctions. For the Trump administration, this was the final provocation. It wasn't just evasion; it was replacement.

Conclusion: A Monetary Mutiny

This aggressive push for a parallel financial system became the veritable last straw on the camel's back for the stalled trade deal. In December 2024, President-elect Trump issued a blunt ultimatum: any move by BRICS nations to create a new currency or back an alternative to the dollar would be met with 100 percent tariffs.

Washington views India’s 2026 agenda not as economic modernization, but as a "monetary mutiny." The sages who studied the rise and fall of kingdoms would chuckle today, for the lesson is ancient: money is the hard-earned fruit of labor, while currency is merely the paper promise that it still tastes good. Money—like gold and silver—is the crystallized effort of real work. Currency, however, is its excitable younger cousin: useful for trade, but spoiled the moment rulers discover the printing press.

India has chosen to bear the cost of tariffs rather than surrender the sovereignty of its "crystallized effort." The trade deal may be officially "stalled" due to a missed phone call, but in reality, it lies buried under the foundation of the new BRICS financial architecture—a foundation India is now actively pouring concrete for better future.

Manish Bhandari, CIIA, founder of Vallum Capital Advisors, a Portfolio Management firm managing equity investments Based in Mumbai.

Full Article & Research Document Available Below

https://t.co/OsPJLHJ1Db

#Geopolitics #Macroeconomics #USIndiaTrade #BRICS2026 #GlobalEconomy #ForeignPolicy #TradeWar #DeDollarization #InternationalRelations

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The Global Sectoral Rotation from AI to Biotech has begun https://t.co/56M44433uK

#nvdia #nasdaq_mynz #TechStocks #Biotech #USStocks #Investing #biotechnologyassets #Stocks #elonmusk2025

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Check out my latest article: The Sacred Trust: Forty Years of Institutional Longevity, A Lesson in Trusteeship and Patient Capital.

@udaykotak @KotakBankLtd @jaykotak

https://t.co/4AROTu6g65 via @LinkedIn

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

I’m excited to share the edition of Vallum’s Weekly Insights. Do take a look and tell us which theme resonated most with you.

Follow @VallumCapital for future editions.

#WhatVallumRead #VallumCapital #WeekendReading

[Vallum Capital Advisors @ConnectVallum]

📚 Weekly Insights from Vallum Capital:
OpenAI’s consulting playbook, AI ethics & synthetic content, global sanitation, the psychology of time, and gold’s quiet resilience. Five eclectic reads on tech, responsibility & markets.
https://t.co/3OOfHrlhPm #WhatVallumRead #Gold

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Engaged meeting with the regulator on challenges and opportunities in the PMS industry. Appreciated the constructive dialogue and forward-looking outlook.

[SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia @SEBI_updates]

Chairman, SEBI addressed APMI Board Members in Mumbai and discussed issues related to PMS Industry

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

यदा यदा हि धर्मस्य ग्लानिर्भवति भारत।
अभ्युत्थानमधर्मस्य तदात्मानं सृजाम्यहम्॥ Chapter 4 verse 7

Has IEX stock this week finally decoupled from Market coupling? |

We said this - https://t.co/OGkdqpiGpj

Finally, the order is out - https://t.co/P4JbWXFMq6

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Donald J. Trump, President of the US, has questioned the need for quarterly reporting.

While the EU, UK, Japan & Singapore have already moved away, India still clings to this short-term ritual — at the cost of innovation & R&D.

Full analysis: https://t.co/zrwQRiOfwf

#QuarterlyEarnings #IndiaEconomy #Innovation

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

@TataPower @sinha_praveer We’ve been facing a complete internet outage at Kanakia Wall Street again. This is the 2nd time in 10 days and this is severely impacting our operations. We were promised 24/7 reliable internet — this is far from it. Immediate action needed

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Weekly insights from Vallum Capital Advisors : This week’s edition explores storytelling in cinema, real-time trust in business, and reflections on cosmic meaning—three standout reads (and one pizza tracker) that blend emotion, transparency, and scale. – September 06, 2025
From lead character deaths to galaxies beyond sight, these pieces remind us how narrative shapes experience—across screens, brands, and the universe itself.
🔗 https://t.co/znCZPRyE6A
#WhatVallumRead #Storytelling #Transparency #CustomerExperience #CosmicPerspective #Cinema #Dominos #BigThink #VallumCapital #WeekendReading #StrategicThinking

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

@TataPower @sinha_praveer We have been facing a complete internet outage at Kanakia Wallstreet - Andheri, Mumbai for the past 5 hours, and no technician has shown up to resolve it. This is severely impacting our operations. We were promised 24*7 reliable internet - this is far from it.

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

Weekly insights from Vallum Capital Advisors : This week’s reading list navigates platform monopolies, ancient Indian ethics, compounding edge, industrial consolidation, and the power of detachment—five reflections that cut across time, markets, and mindset. – August 16, 2025

From Chanakya to Charlie Munger, this curation maps enduring truths in a rapidly shifting world.

🔗 https://t.co/9tQBnPM3v0

#WhatVallumRead #PlatformPower #IndianPhilosophy #Compounding #Consolidation #MentalModels #ChanakyaNeeti #CharlieMunger #VallumCapital #LongTermThinking #StrategicInsight

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmnVy

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3kA11

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmnVy

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3kA11

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmVL6

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3l7Qz

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmVL6

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3l7Qz

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmVL6

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3l7Qz

[Manish Bhandari @TweetManishbh]

The world is watching a new growth axis take shape: India’s digital strength, China’s manufacturing scale, and Russia’s energy resources are aligning into what could be a $54 trillion economic force. This isn’t abstract — it’s a convergence of tech + production + energy that directly challenges today’s supply chain order and dollar dominance.

India is playing a pivotal role: building global digital infrastructure, deepening trade with China, and securing energy partnerships with Russia. Together, this trio isn’t just complementing each other — they’re rewriting the rules of global growth.

For a detailed breakdown backed with data, here’s the full article: https://t.co/QO1LLOmVL6

Or

https://t.co/hh1JE3l7Qz