Why is the stock market getting NUKED right now?
Google -12.6%, Amazon -7%, Intel -25%, Nasdaq futures down 2%+... and it's happening after these companies posted some of the best cloud growth we've EVER seen
Here's what you need to know as an investor:
1. Google missed on revenue and EPS, search growth slowed to 12%, and free cash flow came in at NEGATIVE $9.07B after $51.4B of capex in a single quarter. The stock had its worst day in 20+ years and lost about $500B in value
2. Amazon piled on last night. AWS grew 39% (fastest in nearly 5 years) and Amazon posted its highest operating margin ever... but trailing 12-month free cash flow went to NEGATIVE $42.4B, from +$14.8B a year ago. And it signaled capex goes UP again next year
3. Intel finished the job. Weak Q4 guide, a PC slump, and a warning that it'll burn cash this year. Stock -25% premarket, dragging every chip name down with it.
One thing to note from all of this:
Nobody is worried about AI DEMAND. Demand is the one thing every company confirmed. Google Cloud more than doubled, Azure grew 48%, AWS is accelerating and still can't build capacity fast enough
So to be clear, demand is NOT the issue. Any bear who's focused on demand should be muted, they are out to lunch
The fear right now is the BILL
The 4 big hyperscalers free cash flow was -$26B combined. 3 of the 4 are now spending more than their businesses bring in
So they're borrowing more and more to fill that gap. Amazon's long-term debt went from $66B to $173B in just 9 months
These companies used to be the biggest cash machines on earth, buying back their own stock. Now they're issuing bonds to keep building. THAT'S the shift the market is repricing and struggling to wrap their head around... even though FCF is expected to go positive by the end of next year, and significantly higher into 2028
But here's the ironic part. Every dollar of that capex is REVENUE for somebody else: the chip, memory and power companies building this stuff out. Yet $MU is still down ~5% this morning. The market is selling the spenders AND the companies getting paid... it makes no sense!
I'm seeing people on X call this the AI bubble popping. Once again, I don't see it. Bubbles pop when demand dries up. Here demand is accelerating and these companies are spending MORE because they can't build fast enough. What's being repriced is how long investors are willing to wait for the cash
I continue to believe these dips are for buying and we go much higher as the market realizes that this negative fcf is only short-term and the revenue is showing up in many different places from AI
This is not a bubble, this is one of the greatest investing opportunities of our lifetime and the market continues to give us gifts at these prices. Take a look at what dips I'm buying and what my real-time portfolio looks like here: https://t.co/NyRpAKYOwu
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
The stocks that made you rich last decade won't do it again.
Here are the 5 themes and 15 stocks I'm watching for the next 10 years:
Defense: $LMT $KTOS $AVAV
Quantum: $IONQ $QBTS $RGTI
Autonomy: $TSLA $GOOGL $UBER
Healthcare AI: $LLY $NVO $TEM
Fintech: $HOOD $SOFI $COIN
Which one are you most bullish on?
Elon Musk says memory shortage will get worse in 2027 before China potentially ramps LPDDR production in 2028 but HBM remains “a tougher hill to climb.”
$MU and $SKHY could see pricing power last much longer than market expects with HBM projected to consume ~30% of DRAM wafer capacity next year.
UPDATED FORWARD P/E MULTIPLES FOR 15 POPULAR GROWTH STOCKS!
Based on estimated CY2027 EPS:
$MU —~5.0×
$APP—~13.0x
$ORCL—~13.5x
$WDC — ~14.1��
$NVDA— ~14.4×
$PENG — ~14.8×
$AVGO— ~16.5×
$SOFI— ~17.4x
$AAOI — ~19.2×
$FPS— ~19.7×
$CRDO—~21.3x
$COHR— ~22.7×
$VRT — ~24.5×
$MRVL—~35.9x
$BE— ~50.0x
Source: Stock Analysis. Calendar Year 2027 adjusted EPS approximated from fiscal-year forecasts, using reference share prices.
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