Michael

[Michael @sakib3583]

@arcsoulNFT @opensea @akadotfun @ArclingsNFT 0xf1F228eB5bcB90329C8737c010dB8E2A4d4fF920

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[CapyOnChain @capy_onchain]

The perp market is waking up again, so here’s where I’d actually put fresh capital right now - and where I wouldn’t start from zero.

A few days ago I posted the short version in my tier list. Here’s the full breakdown going into Q4 2026.

@TxFlow_L1
Still the best risk/reward on the market for me. Since I first started talking about TxFlow, its metrics have grown more than 3x and they’re still moving up. The public points program still hasn’t launched, which means you can still build volume now and position for a retroactive allocation later.

The important part is timing. The team has already said the points program is being prepared, and once it goes live, competition will obviously get much harder. If you want to be early here, I wouldn’t wait too long.

Invite code: TXCAPY

@variational_io
Probably the clearest math among all major tokenless perps. You can still farm points at roughly $5 cost per point, while OTC deals have been around $22-25 per point from what I’ve seen. The only real question is scale. Farming cheap points is still possible, but getting a meaningful allocation now requires serious volume. That’s why I still like it. Variational has already proven it belongs at the top of the perp market, the product has real usage, and the token is still ahead.

The setup reminds me a bit of Lighter - early farmers got the best entry, but even people who came in relatively late still managed to make decent multiples. If you don’t want to overthink it, neutral farming Variational + TxFlow is still one of the cleanest setups for me.

Invite code: OMNICAPY

@risextrade
Solid project. I don’t have much to add here - if the math works for you, it’s worth farming. The main negative is the pivot from the previous project and the change in direction, but maybe reacting to the market early was actually the right move.

Invite codes: X1IMLHVE, XQSVPUW1, 1RQ655K1, 4MLT7Y0D, K4QP2QSY, KWAMZ0YF, S44T50J0, TZJMFYVT, V7MBRDJK, V8RJORA4, W1U2NVLB, W6GNQZDG, WN5F22XM, WP61RI02, 809OBVZH, A32HBVED, AUXKXACU, CNNXV6ZC, DE7E2J5Q, FROVOS46

@bulktrade
Probably the perp with the best chance to become a major player on Solana. The pre-deposit campaign is getting close to the end, so this is basically the last clean window to deposit and farm AURA before the perp fully launches. The team is expected to roll out the product properly within the next few weeks, so I wouldn’t ignore this one.

Invite code: capy

@hibachi_xyz
This one is very split. Some farmers think the math is terrible, others think it still works perfectly fine. Personally, I wouldn’t start from zero now. If you already farmed a decent amount of points, I’d probably just wait for TGE and see how it plays out. They also completely redesigned the product recently, which at least shows they’re still actively building.

Invite code: capy

@get_truenorth
Good perp overall, but for some reason I’m still not fully convinced. The AI trading layer is interesting and there are plenty of unique features, but I personally don’t see the same upside here as in the projects above. A lot of people are farming it and maybe they’ll prove me wrong, but I’d still allocate capital elsewhere first.

Invite code: CAPY

@QFEX
One of the quieter surprises in the perp market. Volume has grown a lot without much attention, and QFEX is now consistently sitting around the top of DeFiLlama perp rankings. The points program still isn’t live either. It looks farmable, but I still haven’t started myself. The only thing that gives me pause is the TradeXYZ vibe - good product, deep liquidity, strong usage, but not much urgency around launching points or attracting airdrop farmers.

Watchlist:

@popdex_, @papertrade_xyz, @entropyIO, @blinktrade, @Rocky_exchange, @slx_fi.
All interesting enough to watch, but either not fully live yet or I simply haven’t started farming them. For now, they stay on the watchlist.

Too late to start from zero:

Pacifica, Reya, Extended.
All three have already been farmed heavily for a long time. If you were early, fine. If you’re starting from zero now, I don’t really see the asymmetry anymore. I’m not expecting life-changing drops here. Best case, probably a few x if execution is good.

Skip:

N1Chain, Bullpen, Meridian, Propr, Carbon, Hotstuff, StandX, Nado, Phoenix, Ostium, Arcus, Bullet, Decibel, Perpl.
Most of these are either close to dead, constantly delaying TGE, pivoting again and again, or simply don’t offer a good enough setup anymore. Could some of them still launch? Sure.
Do I want to spend fresh capital farming them today? No.

If I had to concentrate everything into just two farms right now, it would still be TxFlow + Variational.
The biggest mistake in this market is thinking every tokenless perp still deserves your volume just because there’s no token yet.

Which project here am I underestimating the most?

[CapyOnChain @capy_onchain]

How much upside can @variational_io points really have?

I compared Variational with some of the most popular perp DEXs that already have tokens and modeled what point prices could look like if Variational launched at similar valuations.

Of course, this is only scenario math, not a prediction. But the numbers are interesting.

1. @Lighter_xyz / @edgeX_exchange pattern - base case

FDV: ~$1.3B

If Variational launches around this valuation and allocates 25-30% to the airdrop, 1 point could be worth roughly $35-45.

This is probably the most realistic scenario if the market stays decent and Variational keeps growing.

2. @Aster_DEX pattern - bullish case

FDV: ~$5.6B

With the same 25-30% airdrop allocation, 1 point could be worth roughly $150-180.

This is where the market starts pricing Variational not just as another perp DEX, but as one of the strongest tokenless perp plays with real OI, 0 fees and TradFi/RWA expansion.

3. @HyperliquidX pattern - fantasy case

FDV: ~$66.8B

With the same math, 1 point could be worth roughly $1,800-2,150.

Obviously, this is not my base case. But it shows how asymmetric points can become if a perp DEX actually wins.

My current view:

• $35-45 per point - realistic/base case
• $150-180 per point - bullish case
• $1,800+ per point - fantasy case

This is why I still think Variational is one of the most interesting perp farms on the market right now. FDV, airdrop allocation, total point supply and market conditions can all change, but the upside is very clear.

Which scenario do you think is more realistic for Variational: Lighter/EdgeX, Aster or something bigger?

[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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[Michael @sakib3583]

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