Sal G.

Present: Management

[Sal G. @salsfriends]

@deedydas I’m curious if AI will be replacing CEO’s of major public companies anytime soon.
Top down approach.

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 HOLY CRAP! HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars in Medicare fraud was just uncovered by Fox in California

76,000 CLAIMS worth $600 MILLION was billed to taxpayers under ONE 87-year-old doctor's name

SEVERAL hospice centers are listed under the one doctor's name in the Los Angeles area, but the doctor doesn't even LIVE IN THE STATE.

He lives in LAS VEGAS.

The amount of fraud is absolutely MINDBLOWING, and the politicians who enable it need to start being CHARGED.

Gavin Newsom is a FAILURE.

[Anticommie @QueenAnticommie]

They make money in every direction! This is sickening!

[Josh Hawley @HawleyMO]

Verizon had no issue billing me for my phone while they were secretly handing my phone data over to Biden’s DOJ

They saw no issue with the illegal subpoena. Felt no need to notify me

And if they’ll do it to a U.S Senator, they’ll do it to working Americans

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

That is the key question. Epstein and Maxwell were sent to prison for running an underage child sex ring.

Prosecute their clients!!! Until we see at least one client arrest, this partial release of Epstein files means nothing.

[healthbot @thehealthb0t]

An American doctor says the SAME scan that costs $2,000 through insurance often costs $200–$300 in cash — same room, same machine, same images.

“It’s like the price only explodes once insurance gets involved.”

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 BREAKING: Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick just DROPPED THE MIC on every "Expert" and Democrat in the USA

"Just THINK, the United Kingdom grew 0.1%, the European Union grew 0.4%, and Japan fell 0.6%. Donald Trump's economy grew 4.3%!"

"What that means is that Americans, overall, all of us, are going to earn 4.3% percent more money. We're making a raise. It's a simple way to do it."

"We've got more jobs, lower energy costs, and lower interest rates coming."

"This is the golden age coming. 4.3% this quarter means Americans, on average, are making more money, more money in their pocketbooks. That makes for a great Christmas!" 🇺🇸

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Yes

[John Kennedy @SenJohnKennedy]

Air traffic controllers aren’t getting paid.

Federal employees aren’t getting paid.

Practically the only people in our government who ARE getting paid are members of Congress.

That's why I brought two bills to the Senate floor to stop paying Congress during shutdowns.

[Byron Donalds @ByronDonalds]

Erika and I offer our sincere condolences to the family and friends of Deputy Devin Jaramillo of the @MiamiDade_SO.

It is a tragedy when an officer is killed in the line of duty. May he rest in peace.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

This past wk did not go as I expected.

A gap lower on Tuesday and 1.2% decline for the day for no apparent reason (this always concerns me when valuations are this high) was followed by more selling for the rest of the wk driven by: 1) OpenAI talking about a government “backstop” calling into question the nearly $1.5 trillion of infrastructure commitments they have made which drove down my AI index 5.9% for the wk, the Mag7 by 3.2% and the S&P by 1.6%, 2) stagflation concerns with the most Challenger job cuts in October since 2003 with the highest ISM services prices paid number in three years, 3) more signs of a K-shaped economy from retail company reports including $MCD, $CAVA and a negative $KMX pre-announcement, 4) some more hawkish Fed statements, and 5) a sharp sell-off in crypto with concerns that some whales were selling (Bitcoin and Ethereum down 5-10% last wk) exacerbating the reduction in risk appetite.

So what am I thinking now? First, I do wonder if the generally poor earnings results by the retailers which drove the $XRT retail ETF down by 9.7% from its highs in mid-September is confirmation of my fears of a demand pull forward hurting future demand during the normally bullish period from Thanksgiving through year-end. Second, I also worry that maybe investors are becoming less “irrationally exuberant” and realizing that not all AI companies can fund their ambitions and not all of them will win.

As for the AI theme more broadly, from a demand perspective, the data indicates that token production driven recently by new video & image generation apps is growing rapidly.

As to the question of who will pay for it, OpenAI stated that they will exit this year at a $20B annualized revenue run rate, could reach $100 billion as early as 2027 and potentially hundreds of billions by 2030.

I am skeptical given 5B consumers have been trained over decades that they can get results from Google search for free. And second, corporations are having trouble generating ROI as seen by the performance of a majority of software stocks outside of AI darling $PLTR (+135% YTD) and AI hyperscalers $MSFT (+18% YTD) and $ORCL (+44% YTD). The $IGV software ETF is up just 9% this year but the above three names are 24% of the index and masking the carnage underneath for many names. The question of whether “AI will eat software” through more productivity and less employees was unfortunately brought to the forefront late last week following $HUBS results (-43% YTD).

But despite the questions raised this past week, on the margin I believe: 1) investors still want to believe in the AI spending cycle in aggregate though they are becoming more discerning around the companies that can fund this organically versus through raising debt, 2) the government shutdown is likely to end this next week as no politician wants to blamed for ruining Thanksgiving air travel plans for their voters, 3) the Fed will still cut rates in December once they have air cover from government produced data after the end of the shutdown, 4) potential for government deals & stakes for AI companies is likely at some point as seen with $INTC and rare earth companies already, and 5) a new extremely dovish Fed chair is coming in May keeping the rate cutting party going till near year-end.

So in summary, I am still a believer that the market will be higher by year-end than today driven primarily by the hopes of easy money but also a more discerning AI investor. I believe being diversified is still the best positioning.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The level of fraud is staggering

[Sami Nathaniel @NathanielSami]

OMG good job Speaker of the house.!!!

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

After years of decline, businesses are a far cry from the glory days of being ‘Furniture Capital of the World’ amid price hikes and supply chain snafus.

https://t.co/nRz4i0dBpS

[Christian Collins @CollinsforTX]

A former hostage revealed Hamas was "scared of Trump" and "wanted Kamala to be elected."

Today's release happened because the terrorists knew what was coming.

God bless President Trump, and pray for lasting peace!

[Vince Langman @LangmanVince]

Here's the video of that scumbag Bad Bunny sitting during a singing of God Bless America at the Yankees game this week.

You pick a real winner Roger Goodell

[Johnny Midnight ⚡️ @its_The_Dr]

Paid protesters are bussed in from San Francisco to Bakersfield California for a protest

This is a 280 mile, 4 1/2 hour bus ride for all these busses to be paid protesters for Democrats
Someone is paying for this!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Same

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

For Charlie