Salsolmon

AI's effect

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Everyone says #AI, #remotework killed #commercialrealestate. But American Express just committed to 2 #WorldTradeCenter with planned 2031 occupancy.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Everyone says #AI, #remotework killed #commercialrealestate. But American Express just committed to 2 #WorldTradeCenter with planned 2031 occupancy.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

The market is pricing this as temporary credit normalization. The banks are positioning like it's permanent. Who's reading this wrong - the market or the lenders with skin in the game? Disagree? Tell me why regional banks are overreacting.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

No more credit for small businesses!

Everyone thinks small business lending is just a normal credit cycle downturn.

The data tells a different story.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Yes, small businesses always show stress first in cycles. But this concentration of losses while other segments stay clean? That suggests the small business economy is structurally weaker than headline numbers indicate.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Regional banks are reading the room. First Bank shifted 62% of new originations to C&I and owner-occupied real estate. They're not just managing risk - they're abandoning an entire customer segment.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Small businesses are getting squeezed by something bigger than interest rates. They lack the balance sheet cushions and protections that larger borrowers have. When uncertainty hits, they're the first to crack.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

First Bank's small business charge-offs hit their entire loss profile in 2025 - "almost exclusively" according to their Chief Credit Officer. Meanwhile, C&I (Commercial and induscrial) and commercial real estate? Performing fine. This isn't broad credit stress. It's structural.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

EU healthcare REITs sit on 5-6% cap rate assets in Germany and the Netherlands, it seems US REITs just secured properties at 9-10% yields,150-250 basis points higher. They're doing it through 1031 tax-deferred exchanges that EU REITs can't replicate due to their tax structures.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

It does look like resistance for #BTC

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

When your AI is synthesising market signals, supplier risk, and cashflow patterns in real time, and your competitor's CFO is still reading dashboards. you don't just move faster. You see around corners they don't know exist. That's the moat. Not the automation. The intelligence

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Everyone says AI in finance = cost cuts and headcount reduction.

The actual CFO playbook: increase AI spend, cut everything else, and use it to spot market shifts before competitors do.

The finance function isn't shrinking, it's becoming the competitive intelligence hub.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

What this actually means: Every CFO will eventually automate reconciliation and reporting. That part is commoditised, it's just catching up. The real edge is what you do with the freed-up attention.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

When your AI is synthesising market signals, supplier risk, and cashflow patterns in real time, and your competitor's CFO is still reading dashboards. you don't just move faster. You see around corners they don't know exist.

That's the moat. Not the automation. The intelligence

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Everyone says AI in finance = cost cuts and headcount reduction.

The actual CFO playbook: increase AI spend, cut everything else, and use it to spot market shifts before competitors do.

The finance function isn't shrinking, it's becoming the competitive intelligence hub.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

What this actually means:

Every CFO will eventually automate reconciliation and reporting. That part is commoditised, it's just catching up.

The real edge is what you do with the freed-up attention.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Cut rates → risk re-igniting inflation ↳ Hike rates → risk crashing already-softening labor markets
The trap has a name.
Stagflation.
Central banks didn't blink this week.
But the margin for error just got a lot thinner.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Four major central banks. 48 hours. One answer: hold rates.
These are hawkish holds: refusing to cut despite softening growth.
Frankfurt. London. Stockholm. Washington.
Same oil shock. Same sticky wages. Same geopolitical fog. Identical decisions.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Are we closing in on the limits of the playbook?
The soft landing narrative is getting harder to sell when you can't move in either direction without breaking something.

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

The bubble framing asks: when does this pop?

The better question:

What happens to the countries and companies that didn't buy in?

[Salsolmon @salsolmon]

Everyone says #AI is in a #bubble. Some compare it to 1999.

They're not entirely wrong.

But they're missing the most important part. #AIBubble