Sam

Macro, FX & Commodities Observer

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

SoyOil FOB turns firmer as buyers grow convinced of an upward move. Buyers are raising bids closer to sellers’ offers, signalling stronger physical demand and narrowing bid-offer spreads; a bullish sign for FOB basis/premiums.
#FOBBasis #Premiums

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

Soya CNF Ex Kandla

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

FOMC modestly leans hawkish. The Fed acknowledges geopolitical uncertainty but continues to emphasize resilient domestic fundamentals and persistent inflation. The focus now shifts to the SEP/dot plot and Chair Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the policy path ahead.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

CBOT Jul’26 SBO remains in a bullish regime, supported by +ve trend structure and constructive options positioning. Strong support is clustered at 76–77.5, while the massive 80 call OI concentration continues to act as a gamma-driven upside magnet. Bias remains higher toward 80.

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@vinodsrinivasan Great explantn Sir, but just to kindly add one thing - Rbi has banned Indian banks particptn from NDF, it neither hasn’t nor it can control offshore foreign entities to do it. The con of it is - rbi has lost the transparency and the role of it as bridge btwn ndf & deliverable

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

Brent is currently supported artificially by geopol risk premium while physical fundamentals remain weak due to Atlantic Basin overspply, rising US inventories + CPC flows. Smart money is selling rallies and postng for medm-term dwnside unless a major geop disruptn removes supply

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

US-Iran escalation doesn’t need to shut the Strait of Hormuz to rattle mrkts
Even a short-lived #oil risk premium:spikes FX volatility & pressures yen carry trades.Yen carry = short-vol bet →can unwind FAST.Japan’s giant overseas assets:shocks tighten global liquidity #USDJPY

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@Sputnik_India De-dollarisation isn’t that easy as depicted by headlines. Until and unless global debt market isn’t swayed away from greenback notionals - just a convincing and happy headline to read and chuckle!!

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@Mayhem4Markets @TraderadeTweets Isn't this a consequence of the deficit being financed by negative net exports and due to the Yuan - Ruble trade or their prior balance set off, Russia being the exception?

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@Goodvib75002247 Yeah right!
Even FCPO depicted upward trajectory due to surge in exports in the first half of August aligned by weaker ringgit.

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@vsvaibhav09 @vivbajaj @Monkwhotrades1 JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

Why would it influence others to go against it? Just a rumour it is.

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@CarlBMenger @jpmorgan JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

Stop spreading rumours, why would it influence others to go against it?

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@nitinbhatia121 JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

Read this and stop spreading rumours. Why would it give public call to go against it?

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@FinanceLancelot JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@CarlBMenger @jpmorgan JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@WinfieldSmart JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@vivbajaj JPMorgan Sees Investors Moving to Gold, Tech Amid Recession Risk https://t.co/KrA8y9JKqX

[Sam @Samarmehra_]

@zerohedge Is it true that JP Morgan's Gold short positions notional value exceeds its total assets? If so why is it giving contradictory buy call?

[Bloomberg Opinion @opinion]

Exactly a year into its rate-raising campaign, the Fed is likely to pay a price for its late start, and SVB could be just the beginning, @JonathanJLevin says https://t.co/rAKSX490Ds

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell states interest rates are likely to be higher than expected ahead of congressional testimony. @Jenniferisms reports: