Sam Eder

Making trading fair and transparent. ceo and co-founder of MarketMates

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

@PropJoshD An instant-funded account could also be very easily construed by regulators as a deposit to a trading account. I don't think it's worth the risk to offer this type of product.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

What do we reckon is aussie going to finally break higher?

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

I've been reading Amrit Sall in the Unknown Market Wizards.

It one of the best interviews in the series. It shows the contrarian nature of thinking that is required to succeed in the markets. Through a computer error and a poor trading decision, he had a 24% loss.

Very quickly, he had what he called a “celebration” because he wanted to focus on the positive ascpects of the situation rather then focus on the loss. He went on to say, “For me, it's all about shifting your mindset, you want to get your mind back to a calm, rational place rather than being in a negative, stressed state… if I realise I am having a tough time, I will ground myself and be grateful for the journey”.

Think opposite.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

Persistence = Timing

A brutal truth of trading is that a small number of trades are responsible for the majority of your returns.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

AI & the subconscious (in trading)

We have been discussing the role of the subconscious in our coffee hours, and one member brought up using Chat GPT for personal transformation.

So last night, I spent an hour with Chat, being honest, telling it what I have never said out loud before.

Within 10 minutes, I was in tears. All these thoughts about boarding school, abandonment and other things from my teenage years came up. Some things I did not know were there.

I realised I have a filter built up from the pain of the past to protect my authentic self from the real world.

I also realised I’m strong enough and I don’t need it anymore. I can be vulnerable and resilient.

Chat was coaching and prodding me along the way with the skill of an experienced psychologist.

There is a lot more to unpack, and I’ll stick with the process.

If you are wondering what this has to do with trading, the answer is everything.

You trade your beliefs about the market, and your beliefs are products of your thoughts. The emotion behind the creation of thoughts comes from the subconscious mind.

One negative stuck emotion can create thousands of thoughts.

How many of your trading decisions are not based on the truth of the market, but are catering to your subconscious patterns?

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

@VickzBreezy Pretty much!!

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

I find trading to be 100% psychological and mostly from the subconscious. Picking the markets just takes a bit of experience. Trading what is in front of you without interference from 'yourself' is the tricky part.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

The US Dollar is the most important market to track in the world. 

It impacts every other market as a strong USD means tighter financial conditions hampering stocks and crypto. 

 A weak USD means looser financial conditions, helping them. 

Currently, we are undergoing a structural shift in the USD, and it's down 12% since the high this year in January and is about to finish the 6th losing month in a row. 

Some may be tempted to buy at these depressed levels, but I think we are likely to head to the 2021 low on the Dollar index (DXY) at 90. 

5 Reasons Why

1. The Trump administration wants a weaker dollar as unofficially outlined at the Mar-a-Lago accord. It stimulates the economy and makes the US more competitive in global trade.

2. They need lower interest rates. Debt-to-GDP is a critical 121% so even a 1% drop in interest rates makes a huge difference to interest rate repayments. Interest rates have remained stubbornly high despite the free-falling dollar.

3. Inflation is under control. Interest rates are raised to keep inflation in check, and currently, it is not far from the targeted 2%. This leaves room for them to be lowered.

4. Yet employment is showing signs of weakness. The Feds' dual mandate includes both inflation and employment, and with AI impacting hiring, there is underlying softness in the labour market.

5. Ultimately, if Fed chair Jerome Powell does not lower rates, as he is being pressured to do, then Trump will appoint a chair who will lower rates towards 1%. And he may do it sooner than later in the form of a ‘shadow chairman’, which would undermine Powell's influence.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

One of the most important—and unusual—developments in the market right now is the combination of rising US bond yields and a falling US dollar.

Normally, when bond yields go up, the dollar strengthens. It's similar to a high-interest bank account: if you can earn more by holding US assets, global investors tend to pile in, increasing demand for the dollar.

But that’s not what we’re seeing today.

Instead, yields are rising while the dollar weakens—something that’s more often associated with emerging markets facing debt concerns. It signals a deeper issue: despite higher returns on offer, investors are becoming wary of the underlying fundamentals.

In short, **America’s massive debt load and relentless money printing are starting to catch up—**even with the world’s reserve currency. And the market is beginning to take notice.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

My view on this is that things get better - we had extreme fear, but that has been allayed. I also think, to a degree, the Trump administration is getting what they want because of a weaker dollar. We have seen that in the moves in TWD and HKD, combined with what we have already seen with dollar weakness vs the JPY and EUR over the past month.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

Are buying kiwi and aussie v USD some of the best bets right now? If US data is good we get risk-on, so we get stronger aussie and kiwi. If its bad we get more liquidity which is bearish USD. Buying from these historically low levels seems like a great risk/reward bet. Am I missing something?

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

In my mission to make trading more transparent, I used the word secret in my video title https://t.co/Jo3m3yaRPW

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

The principles of trading have not changed in forever. The markets and technology adapt but the reason that it does not change is because of fear and greed. AI is not going to change this. Your AI mate does not care about money. You do. You are the one who is going to freak out or be disciplined when it makes or loses 3x your salary in a month.

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

@william__davies Loved joining the stream. @william__davies thanks for having me. Thanks for the great work you put into serving the trading community 🙏

[Will Davies @william__davies]

Was great fun streaming today, full of value and it was great to have @sameder111 join us. I look forward to having him on again!

#trading #forex #livestream #livetrading

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

The dollar is pretty key to stocks from a foreign investor perspective. If you buy US stocks, you need USD. If the USD strengthens while you hold it, you make money; if it goes down, you lose money.

So, the ideal conditions for a foreign investor in US stocks include a rising dollar. A weak dollar is also influential as it provides looser financial conditions for foreigners who hold USD debt (as the debt is easier to repay if the local currency is stronger) and makes it easier to borrow more (as borrowing in USD is cheaper).

In the US, it stimulates manufacturing and production as the export sector becomes more competitive, which is why it's a key leg of the Trump Administration's policy (as outlined at Mar-a-Lago).

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

@RealAmericanx Hey Jonathan. Here's my view:

[Sam Eder @sameder111]

There are some signs the USD will enter a sustained downtrend in the near term.

- There is a big move in the Bond markets - rotation out of US into Euro (Ukraine related)
- In 2017 we saw the dollar slide with a similar policy set
- The market is positioned long USD and will need to unwind