Sam Macdonald

Director, Foster Capital NZ Ltd; Manager, Colt Emerging Companies Fund

[⚗️ NdPr DyTb | Rare Earths ⛏️⚗️🔥🔬🧲 Analyst ⭐ @roblun1]

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just signed an executive order that could reshape which companies actually get to build America's weapons. 🇺🇸⚔️

On July 20, 2026, Trump signed "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials", and it's a direct hit on the practice of defense contractors quietly sourcing critical minerals from China. 🧲
👇
https://t.co/J7tCqn2ubW

What changes:

🔒 Waivers get MUCH harder to get.

Starting Jan 1, 2027, the Pentagon can no longer freely grant waivers letting contractors buy critical materials from "covered nations" (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) just because they're the cheapest option. Contractors now have to prove they searched for alternatives and show a real exit plan.

🗺️ Full supply chain mapping.

No more hiding tier-3 suppliers, Contractors must map every material, from raw input to finished weapon system, including lower-tier suppliers normally invisible to the prime contractor. As Peter Navarro put it: "This is not paperwork. It is battlefield preparation." ⚔️📋

🕵️ Supplier vetting with real teeth.

Contractors have to assess suppliers for foreign ownership/control, financial vulnerability, and risk, and replace anyone deemed unreliable. Non-compliant or fraudulent contractors risk losing contracts entirely, or referral to the Attorney General.

The industry is split:

📈 Domestic critical minerals players are already waving this as validation, companies like Focus Graphite are publicly highlighting "strategic alignment" with the order.

⚠️ But the Aerospace Industries Association pushed back hard, warning that for SEVERAL of the targeted minerals, domestic capacity, scale, or purity simply doesn't exist yet, meaning the order could "impede reaching these goals" rather than accelerate them.

Why this matters for rare earths specifically:

🇺🇸This is the legal backbone behind the entire US reshoring, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Lynas's US contracts, and magnet recyclers are all positioned to benefit as DoD's tolerance for China-sourced magnets shrinks to near zero. 🧲

It also lands alongside a proposed DFARS rule that could extend this vetting to ALL unclassified DoD contracts above $5M, meaning the compliance wave is about to get much bigger than just rare earths.

🎯 The takeaway: Washington just moved from "please diversify" to "prove it or lose the contract." That's a fundamentally different level of pressure on the entire defense-critical minerals supply chain.

#RareEarths #CriticalMinerals #DefenseSupplyChain #ExecutiveOrder #Trump #NationalSecurity #Reshoring #MadeInUSA #NdFeB #MPMaterials #USARareEarth #Lynas #Pentagon #SupplyChainSecurity #ChinaDecoupling #DefenseIndustrial #Magnets

[Charted Daily @Charteddaily]

The New Zealand government's 2035 target of NZ$3B of mineral exports could potentially be hit this year.
Gold exports alone in the year to April were worth over NZ$2.3B, more than double the previous year.

[MAZE @mazemoore]

2016. Guy McPherson (a climate change expert, scientist, and professor from the University of Arizona) says that there will not be any humans on the planet by 2026 due to the effects of climate change.

Trust the scientists. 😜🤣

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[Matt Fernley @matt_fernley]

More thoughts on the USA RE/Serra Verde deal. USA Rare Earths is using its massively overvalued paper to buy Brazil's only operating REE mine which should supply 50% of the HREE produced outside China by 2027.

But this also puts a valuation on other Brazilian REE projects. And it's probably significantly higher than the valuations currently being attributed by the stock market. Watch this space.
https://t.co/zNFQARtGY6

[WOLF Trading @WOLF_TradingX]

The stock market so far in 2026 explained

[Gary Savage @garysavage1]

How many times have a I said this: At tops I can't get anyone to sell, and at bottoms I can't get anyone to buy.

There is always a narrative at these turning points and the vast majority of people buy into the narrative.

Go back to late January and see how many people were telling me the fundamentals had changed for silver. Shortages, asians buying, critical mineral, yada yada yada.

I tried to explain that corrections have nothing to do with fundamentals. They are driven by sentiment. They are profit taking events. These will occur no matter how strong the fundamentals are.

Now we are at a bottom and the narrative has completely changed. The same people that were telling me metals could never go down are now assuring me they can never go back up. But the fundamentals haven't changed. So the same thing that drove the previous rally... and the one before that, and the one before that, etc. are still in play. So at some point the selling pressure is exhausted and smart money starts buying again. Then the next leg up in the bull market begins.

Maybe the most dependable tool for spotting a major bottom is the bullish percent chart. Contrary to the name this isn't a sentiment indicator. It is an overbought/oversold oscillator.

You can see from past history when this gets down close to 0 the metals sector is completely washed out and setup for the next leg in the bull market to begin.

2-3 months from now sentiment will have completely reversed and a new narrative will appear for why this time it really is different and metals really won't ever go back down. And then the whole crazy game will repeat again.

So if you have any capacity at all to ignore the narrative and do the opposite of the crowd, now is the time to be buying the dip.
https://t.co/rXY3BYNxOV

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

Few understand that #Silver is the new oil. A tsunami of #silver demand is coming from countries that need a backup plan for their energy needs.

Trump just made this a new reality.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Silver has shown exceptional relative strength during the recent broad market sell-off.

When equities made a major swing low on Monday, silver, along with most commodities, held above the previous week’s low. In a liquidation-driven environment, assets that refuse to make new lows often signal quiet accumulation.

Yes, rising yields could keep precious metals range-bound for a few weeks, but this relative strength matters.

When the pressure from yields eases, silver is likely to approach new highs with momentum, not hesitation.

Markets reveal leadership during stress.
Right now, commodities, especially silver, are quietly showing it.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

And just like that, despite the recent volatility, gold just posted the highest weekly close on record.

Silver’s corrections are resetting positioning and moving the market from weak hands to more patient capital.

Some near-term digestion would be perfectly healthy, but the broader trend remains firmly intact.

More importantly:

At these metal prices, many mining companies are generating substantial cash flow.

The setup continues to look very constructive.

Game on.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Trump Launches $12 Billion Strategic Mineral Stockpile To Counter China; Rare Earth Stocks Jump https://t.co/iGZdy4KSEI

[Sam Macdonald @SamMac77]

@Ruycorto @Christophe_Qld Prepare for takeoff
Thanks

[Mark @Mark4XX]

🚀 ERIC SPROTT: INSIGHTS FROM A LEGEND 🚀

“When gold broke through $2000 in 2024, they lost control of the #gold market. The same thing has now happened in #silver.”
❌ The banks that were perpetually short can no longer hold back the physical demand.

THE ALLOCATION SHIFT IS COMING.
➡️ Imagine if major institutions adopted the new model portfolio: 60/20/20, with 20% in precious metals.
✅ “We wouldn't even recognize the price… It could be like $1,000 for silver.” The re-rating would be historic.

THE HIDDEN GEMS: SILVER JUNIORS
➡️ “I own every silver junior there is. They are all overlooked.”
⚠️ Most investors are still valuing these companies as if silver is $25-$30. It's double that.
✅ The leverage is incredible: “At $150 silver, these stocks go up by 10 times.”
📈 A 30-million-ounce silver deposit at $200/oz is worth $6 BILLION. Many such companies trade for a tiny fraction of that today.

The Bottom Line: The paper market facade is crumbling. The physical shortage is real and accelerating. While silver itself is set to soar, the greatest leverage lies in the overlooked junior miners. We are in the early stages of a historic move.

HT: @TFMetals @SprottMoney
#Silver #Gold #PreciousMetals #SilverStocks #JuniorMiners #BullMarket #Investing #Commodities #Sprott #Finance

[🅿🅴🆃🅴 @Pete__Panda]

Just an accident waiting to happen now. Touch and cool? Let's see.

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

I guess we are at the exciting part of the movie now…😂🤭🙈

#Gold #Silver

[Rui @Ruycorto]

$RCM

[Sean Zubick @SeanZubick]

You are not bullish enough on US Critical Minerals as White House mineral and supply chain czar @DavidCopley shares the US government's ambitions in the mining sector at the Future Minerals Forum in KSA @FutureMineral

[David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe @ASX__Trader]

Silver exploded another 7% higher last night to over $85USD and what’s wild is that this move is still only just beginning on the primary trend.

You’re seeing people call major tops in silver who have no understanding of how charts or commodity cycles work. They missed the move. They’re frustrated. It came out of nowhere for them, and they’re not positioned.

If you understand how mining cycles work, the sequence is clear:

The asset itself runs first (silver)

Producers outperform next (leverage to the price)

Junior miners explode last — the true speculative phase

That final phase is where the biggest gains are made.

I’ve attached two charts.

First: SIL vs Silver (Miners vs the Metal)
SIL is as undervalued relative to silver as it was at:

The 2015 commodities bottom

The 2020 COVID bottom

The March 2024 silver breakout

And now

Markets do not top when the underlying asset is still outperforming its leverage plays. That would make no logical sense. Producers are leveraged to the asset to outperform silver in a mature move and they haven’t even started yet.

Second: SILJ vs Silver (Junior Miners vs the Metal)
Same story. Junior miners remain historically undervalued.

Silver is trading at roughly double its 2010 price, yet the silver miners ETF is sitting around 2011 levels. The metal has doubled yet the miners haven’t. They are supposed to massively outperform. That’s a textbook setup, not a topping pattern.

Anyone calling a major top here has 0 understanding of market dynamics.

This is classic noise designed to scare people out of winning positions usually by those who missed it, or by those who simply aren’t good enough to identify major turns. And if they can’t see the move, they certainly can’t see the top.

You’ve seen my track record. I’ve called more major tops in this space than most.

There is no major top coming here.

This is textbook early-stage bull-market psychology.

When a move has just begun, the dominant narrative is always the same:
“Bubble.”
“Blow-off.”
“Top is in.”

That reaction does not happen at real tops. It happens at the start of major trends.

Early in a bull run:

Price moves violently off a long base

Most participants are unpositioned

Skeptics dominate the commentary

Every pullback is called “the end”

Every breakout is called “unsustainable”

That is exactly what you’re seeing now.

Real major tops look nothing like this. They are characterised by:

Universal belief in higher prices

Heavy participation in leverage plays

Media celebration, not fear

Late-stage speculation and euphoria

Nobody calling it a bubble anymore because everyone agrees

We are nowhere near that psychological state.

This phase is disbelief.
Disbelief is how major bull markets begin.

Calling bubbles at the start of a move is how people guarantee they miss generational trends.

This is not excess.
This is recognition just starting to form.

Textbook.

Do not fumble the ball!

[Longarmlopez @longarmlopez]

$FXG nice looking daily chart - a big run, a retrace and now set for next leg imo and also 3x volume today - weekly chart looks like a Bull flag