I describe in tweet below how the fraud happens in real life. However, please keep in mind, if you think about the process as I shared it - the fraud is impossible to prove. Plausible deniability is built in. There's no way to stop it. That's why they hired Eric Holder.
After Mar-a-Lago was raided, Andrew Weissmann claimed that the raid was proof that Trump had done something wrong.
After John Bolton's house was raided, Weissmann claimed it was proof of Trump's political retribution.
Democrats have so many professional liars on call.
The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible…
I ASKED CHATGPT -
“What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.”
The Answer (Part 1) -
“Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size:
50 ballots
0.88%
100 ballots
0.028%
200 ballots
0.00004%
500 ballots
~0.00000000000018%
1,000 ballots
~0.0000000000000000000000000035%”
My follow up -
“Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.”
The Answer (Part 2) -
“If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.”
75 standard deviations is in an entirely different universe.
The probability is approximately:
~10⁻¹²²⁰
or about
1 chance in 10¹²²⁰
That’s a number with roughly 1,220 zeros after the 1.
Statistically, if the batch were truly a random sample of the same electorate, the odds are so small that statisticians would effectively treat the event as impossible. The usual conclusion would not be “wow, what a lucky fluctuation,” but rather that the batch is not representative of the earlier ballots—for example, it came from a different geographic area, voting method, demographic group, or subset of voters.
So yes: much worse than one in a billion, much worse than one in a trillion, and vastly smaller than any probability encountered in ordinary statistical analysis.”
My follow up -
“More grains of sand on earth than the likelihood of this?”
The Answer (Part 3) -
“Yes. Much, much more.
Estimated grains of sand on Earth are often put around 10¹⁸ to 10²⁰.
Your odds example was roughly:
1 in 10¹²²⁰
So this is not just “less likely than picking one grain of sand on Earth.”
It’s more like picking the right grain of sand on Earth correctly over and over again dozens of times in a row.”
Sincerely,
Jeremy Padawer
https://t.co/POrFyAfNhH
@spencerpratt@BoredElonMusk@Hotshot_Movie@415FirePhoto
#losangeles #la #fyp #mayor
Meet Kaylynn Dang, a DoorDash driver in Michigan. In a video she posted, Dang is seen laughing while announcing that the customers will not be receiving their delivery after spotting an Israeli flag in their front yard.
Don't think I've seen anyone produce this yet.
Mayoral and Gov race results, side by side, in LA Council Districts.
Interesting ones:
CD 4 went Bass /Pratt & Steyer top Gov?
CDs 3/5/12 went Pratt/Hilton
CD 7 Pratt/Becerra
CD 11 Pratt/Steyer??
CD 13 is the only Raman / Steyer
Ian Austin was arrested again last night at Delaney Detention Center.
He has now been arrested twice in the last 2 weeks.
Ian was also one of the radical activists who stormed a church service in Minnesota in January.
Why does he keep getting released? @SenMullin
🚨 HOLY SMOKES. Leftist Judge Tracy Davis just slashed a 65-year recommended prison sentence IN HALF for a r*pist — she felt bad he was a black 'victim'
This is madness.
These judges are a threat to EVERYBODY. They must be removed
So election observers are prohibited by new law (signed May 26 by Newsom as an "urgency" measure meaning it takes effect immediately - even though ballots had been out for weeks) but election workers can.
Got it.
And Newsom claims he has nothing to do with CA elections. BS
This is absolutely accurate.
Keep in mind, all of this California stuff happened after Eric Holder was hired by CA as legal counsel for the network they were creating that linked the Secretary of State office to the DMV offices [Moter Voter].
All of that was predicated on the change that allows CA to give Drivers Licenses to illegal aliens.
Ultimately, put the two issues together and that's the source of the ballots.
Here's how it works.
Illegal Alien gets Driver License. The flag that represents a checkbox on voter eligibility is nulled during transmission to the Secretary of State [Go check, and you will see]. The SoS office gets the voter data file from the DMV and generates a ballot.
Those ballots can be mailed, or isolated for alternate completion and use as needed.
That's actually how the process works. The fraud is very easy to understand. Go check the system and you will find the evidence. It's not complicated.
He paid his own way so that he could honor our war dead and teach his children the accurate lessons of history leftist filth like you would deny them in the classroom.
Just when I think the so-called profession of "journalism" could not stoop any lower, you surprise me.