Sam Olsen

Author at States of Play Substack: understanding the changing world of geopolitics/tech/defence/culture

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

In 2025, I published Polycrisis 2027, warning that multiple geopolitical/economic/tech shocks could overwhelm govts & businesses.

With the Iran war, we’ve updated the report. Our conclusion: the polycrisis has begun. Read more in my new States of Play:

https://t.co/EIjozamNlX

[Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn]

The General and The Journalist this week: has the Iran war flipped the balance of power between Trump and Xi?

As they meet in Beijing, chatter is mounting that a grand bargain is coming that will be awful for Taiwan. With @samolsenx

🎧Listen here:
https://t.co/abae7KeoFW

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

The Changing World in Figures No. 1 - 74%

74% of UN member states now say that Taiwan is part of China.

As Trump and Xi meet this week, this reveals how much of the world is moving closer to China than the US, & not just on Taiwan.

#statesofplay

https://t.co/0VXbkXxL9C

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

3️⃣
My latest essay in the Polycrisis series explores how this convergence could shatter Western deterrence — and why the next world crisis may begin not with tanks, but with chips, data, and supply chains.

📖 Read it here → https://t.co/kkfDvj1FKy
#AI #Strategy #Security

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

1️⃣
China isn’t just a competitor — it’s the organising force behind the next global crisis.
By 2027, its grip on supply chains, rare earths, and AI could give Beijing power to choke the West’s economy — even before the first shot is fired.

#Polycrisis #China

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

2️⃣
That same year, Russia may have rebuilt enough strength to test NATO’s resolve.
Two timelines — China’s move on Taiwan and Russia’s return to confrontation — converge like storm fronts.
It’s what our report calls a “moment of maximal danger.”

#Russia #Geopolitics

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

7/
My new States of Play essay walks through the key findings from our Sibylline report, and why the West must start planning for convergence, not sequence.

Read it here 👇
🔗 https://t.co/ufMnWQrhfy

#Polycrisis2027 #Geopolitics #AI #China #Strategy #Leadership #StatesOfPlay

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

1/
🚨 The Polycrisis is coming — and the West isn’t ready.

My latest States of Play essay breaks down Polycrisis 2027, a new report I’ve co-authored at Sibylline.
It warns that by 2027, multiple global shocks could align into a single systemic crisis. 🧵

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

6/
The danger isn’t collapse — it’s overload.
A world stretched too thin to respond when everything happens at once.
That’s the essence of the polycrisis: simultaneity as a strategic weapon.

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

This is Part 1 of my new essay series.

Next week: why this fracture at home threatens the Western-led world order abroad.

👉 Read Part 1 here: https://t.co/m2AhuLy65Q

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

Left vs right no longer explains Western politics.

The real divide today is sovereigntists vs globalists — and it’s reshaping democracies from Washington to Berlin.

🧵👇

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

What began as cultural unease over immigration & identity has hardened into a constitutional struggle.

The question is no longer left vs right — but who decides?

➡️ Nation-states?
➡️ Or supranational institutions?

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

Modern war = factories + minerals, not just tanks + troops.

Britain can’t rearm without US tech.
The US can’t rearm without Chinese supply chains.

If Beijing shuts the tap on cobalt, copper or gallium, even the Pentagon’s arsenal stalls.

Full essay 👉 https://t.co/F4rFaqFnNo

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

👉 The message is clear: this isn’t a distant puzzle — it’s a looming economic shock.

Firms that diversify supply chains, build buffers, and embed geopolitical foresight will endure. Those that don’t risk being blindsided. 📖 Read Part 2 here: https://t.co/BNQeCKFBJs

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

The biggest risk to the global economy right now is 100 miles wide: the Taiwan Strait. 🌏

This is a 🧵 on my new Taiwan report.

Last week I published Part 1 — why the island matters for Xi, + Taiwan’s 90% share of advanced semiconductors. https://t.co/Bly9Qms2QK

[Sam Olsen @samolsenx]

Part 2 also looks at the “anaconda strategy” already unfolding:
🔌 Cable sabotage
✈️ Daily PLA air incursions
💻 Cyber attacks
⚖️ Legal manoeuvres

Pressure without war — but with real business risks, today.