Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern:
2011: -93%
2015: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures.
Following this trend, the 2026 bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K.
Good luck buying your bottom at $69K, $60K and $50K. I’ll see you at $38K.
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IT TOOK ME 5 YEARS TO LEARN& RELEARN :
PRO TRADERS MARKET ANALYSIS
FOCUS AREA | TIME | STRATEGY
DIRECTION | 4H
• Determine overall market trend
• Bullish or Bearish
KEY LEVELS | 4H
• Mark strong support and resistance zones
• Can be used for reversals
TREND | 4H
• Observe market structure
• HH/HL or LH/LL
• Understand the trend within the 4H timeframe
FVG & ORDER BLOCK | 1H
• Look for price imbalance that may get filled
• Identify areas of institutional interest
LIQUIDITY | 1H
• Identify liquidity pools such as:
– Equal highs / Equal lows
– Session high / Session low
– PDH and PDL
CONFIRMATION | 5M
• Wait for a reversal pattern from a key zone
• CISD or MSS
Market 90% psychology
10% Indicators
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@CommitToShip $ship is trending at #37 based on Whale Buys over the last 24 hours amongst Small Cap Tokens on MobyScreener V2 🐳
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wen mobyscreener banner update + boost!? 👑
Cut all losses at 7–8% – Never hold and hope. Protect capital first.
Take profits at 20–25% – When you’re right, lock in gains before they evaporate.
Sell if the stock breaks key support – Don’t fight the chart; the market always wins.
Avoid averaging down – Adding to losers magnifies mistakes.
Raise stops as stocks advance – Protect profits by trailing your position.
Arrangements from Highest to Lowest Success Rate
(Only when traded correctly)
1.Head & Shoulders — 84.1%
2.Exhaustion Gap — 82.9%
3.Hammer Candlestick — 81.3%
4.Bullish / Bearish Flags — 74.2%
5.Engulfing Candlestick — 72.0%
6.Trend Lines — 67.5%
7.Morning / Evening Star — 65.9%
8.Double Top / Bottom — 63.8%
9.Ascending / Descending Triangles — 59.1%
10.Ascending / Descending Wedges — 58.6%
✅ This Is How You Choose Them Correctly
•Trade with the trend, not against it
•Wait for confirmation, never anticipate
•Use higher timeframes for direction
•Enter near structure, not in the middle
•Manage risk first, profits come second
•Combine patterns with volume & context
•One clean setup beats ten random trades
Patterns don’t fail.
Traders fail by using them incorrectly.
🚨 I TOLD YOU YESTERDAY. THERE'S NO ROTATION FROM METALS TO CRYPTO.
After BTC's surge, everyone started talking about a rotation from precious metals to crypto. I warned you that it made no sense for everyone to massively seek refuge in metals all last week and then expect the liquidity problem to be resolved over the weekend, resulting in a normal rotation cycle from metals to crypto.
Gold has continued to fall, down 4.27%, and silver even more, down 14%. So, if they've continued to fall, why, according to this theory, hasn't the rotation continued and BTC, instead of rising further, has plummeted again?
Because you don't understand liquidity flows. You only interact with posts from $ASTER, but not with those that talk about the real problem in crypto: Liquidity isn't arriving.
This is what's happening:
• Silver and gold have risen sharply, and now investors are taking profits.
• These sales are triggering margin calls for long leveraged positions.
• To avoid these margin calls and liquidation, investors need to obtain liquidity from other assets to increase their margin and prevent liquidation.
• This liquidity is coming from riskier assets, like crypto, which is why BTC and altcoins are falling.
What people don't understand is that the rise in metal prices has been caused by serious liquidity problems in the repo market. The price increases have been driven by hedging in safer assets (metals) against these problems.
- When does rotation from metals to crypto occur?
When metals rise, under healthy liquidity conditions, to hedge against rising inflation, which we don't currently have, or against fiat currency depreciation, which is also not the case.
Since liquidity isn't flowing properly right now, and this is the real reason why metals have risen, there won't be a normal rotation of liquidity into crypto. It wouldn't make sense to seek refuge in gold or silver for this reason and then, two days later, put the profits into risky assets.
That doesn't mean we can't see a rise in crypto in the coming days. Metals have risen so much that if they continue to correct further, they will generate significant profits that could reignite the appetite for crypto risk.
But these will be small increases. We won't see all-time highs or an altseason. Not all the flow from metals will go into crypto because the repo problem persists.
In fact, the Fed reactivated the flow of liquidity today with a value of $26 billion, which indicates that dealers continue to have significant liquidity problems on their balance sheets, so the Federal Reserve has to act.
I know this post isn't shared or commented on as much as the Aster posts, because this post talks about something scary, something nobody wants to hear about, something difficult to understand, and something nobody wants to study to understand, but it's the reality.
Today I've already received comments saying that Aster is garbage because it's crashed again. These people don't understand everything I just explained. And even after explaining it, they won't bother to read it as many times as necessary to learn it and understand that neither Aster, Hype, nor any other project has tokenomics problems or that their teams make bad decisions.
The problem is much deeper and affects the entire crypto ecosystem. So get your head out of your ass and study and learn to understand what's happening around you before spreading FUD about projects you yourself have invested in.
#cryptomarket #cryptocurrencies #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #trading #FED #FederalReserve #GOLD $GOLD #altcoins
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