$NBIS has a really interesting setup into Wednesday because the demand is already there with $MSFT and $META contracts, Reflection AI’s $1B deal and GPU demand running several times above available capacity so the real question is how quickly Nebius can turn power and data centers into revenue.
That’s also why I’m getting more comfortable with the execution risk as Nebius targets 4GW+ of contracted power, proves it can raise non-dilutive capital with $775M of secured financing and introduces an asset-light model that lets partners fund infrastructure while Nebius keeps the architecture, software and customer economics.
So heading into earnings, I care much more about whether the Microsoft ramp stays on track, whether the second-half capacity bridge still looks believable and whether Nebius can keep repeating that financing model than I do about a small Q2 beat or miss.