sapiensq

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

sapiensq don’t just predict decisions. we model why people make them.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

https://t.co/YkAVhqoFyB

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@Halia0__ 81

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

https://t.co/qQt3GKVhwm

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@Gosleepriya 976

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

Former Governor of the Bank of England, now Prime Minister of Canada.

A fascinating NYT interview with Mark Carney — a rare perspective from someone who has moved from central banking to political leadership.

https://t.co/OrbGoOTeAz

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

https://t.co/M8btUH0UKK

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

Carlos Garriga (St. Louis Fed research director) on why the FOMC feels like it's rushing and dragging at once: deduction is slow, induction is fast, abduction is flexible but hard to verify.

The rate is a negotiated equilibrium, not a solved equation.

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

St Louis Fed research Director Carlos Garriga has a very insightful piece on 3 types of reasoning that happens in the FOMC:

Induction, deduction, abduction.

We would be fortunate if currently there is more than one type.

https://t.co/E9qSMsHtz9

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

It’s interesting; speeches by Fed officials influence to the long-term bond rate…

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

This paper finds that 90% of the observed rise in the 10-year US Treasury since August 2020 has occurred in the three-day window around US payroll reports or speeches by top Fed officials (the chair, vice chair, or Waller), which accounts for just 24% of trading days

The paper finds those days are responsible for 81% of the rise in markets' expected average short-term rate over the next 10 years, which means this isn't about investors getting nervous about holding long-term debt and is instead about markets revising their view of short-term rates.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

https://t.co/933UVSXXAp

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

We simulated the September 16 FOMC 40 times, on identical public inputs, frozen at the September 3 cutoff.

39 runs held. One hiked.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@LongSteadyNslow Interesting!!

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Kevin Warsh has been critical of how the Fed publishes forecasts and feels pressure to defend them.

As a Fed governor from 2007-11, he submitted one every quarter. They came out on the Fed's usual delay, after he left the Fed, and they haven't gotten much attention since.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@biancoresearch Quantifiable, and it backs you exactly: we ran tomorrow 19x modeling the 12 as independent voters —Warsh hikes in all 19, room holds 2/3. He gets outvoted. The 35–40% sits in 5 swing members, median run = 3 dissents. This Fed needs 12 reaction functions, not one.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@Claudia_Sahm That gap — hawkish Chair, compromising committee — is precisely why the 2:00 statement carries the information, not the 2:30 presser. Curious whether your redline keeps June's deleted easing-bias line out, or walks it back toward it.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@Claudia_Sahm This is exactly right — and it's measurable. We model the members individually and ran tomorrow 19x:
the Chair votes to raise in all 19, and the room still lands on hold in two-thirds of them. The median run produces 3 dissents.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@LarkDavis https://t.co/kaunJbPt35

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@LarkDavis The tail is real and rising — our sim pegs it at 32%. Still a tail, though: 68% hold. And for markets the bigger tell isn't hike-vs-hold, it's the dot plot and whether the hold is unanimous. Our median run throws 3 dissents — a hawkish hold can move markets as hard as a hike.

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@DeFiTracer https://t.co/kaunJbPt35

[sapiensq @sapiensq_com]

@DeFiTracer The tail is real and rising — our sim pegs it at 32%. Still a tail, though: 68% hold. And for markets the bigger tell isn't hike-vs-hold, it's the dot plot and whether the hold is unanimous. Our median run throws 3 dissents — a hawkish hold can move markets as hard as a hike.