Valentin Dr. Sás

[Daniel Roberts @danroberts0101]

A few people asked over the weekend what the calls to slow the pace of frontier AI mean for the buildout. Some thoughts:

Even if models never improved from here, just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years. The debate about how fast AI should be allowed to improve is a fair one to have. It's about future generations of models.

Existing demand is the part I think people are misreading. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in May they'd planned for 10x growth and were running at an 80x pace in the first quarter, and that's why they've had trouble supplying compute. OpenAI president Greg Brockman said in July they'll be in a compute shortage no matter what, and are choosing which products to scale. Google says it's processing 7x the tokens it did a year ago. Hundreds of millions of people use these models today, and most of them use a small part of what the models can already do. And every time more compute comes online, usage steps up again: limits come off for people already using it, customers who were turned away get on, and new use cases show up that weren't in anyone's plan.

Now supply. The constraint is HBM, the memory that sits inside every major AI chip. Three companies make it and all three are sold out this year. A new memory plant takes years to build. TrendForce has HBM shipments growing 50-60% next year. NVIDIA, the biggest buyer of it, expects its revenue to grow about 70% next year and calls that outlook 'supply-constrained', noting its customers' forecasts point closer to 100%. On our own bottom-up work, the memory constraint lands in about the same place as NVIDIA's growth number.

Then the chips need a building with power connected, which takes longer again. Goldmans reckons only about half the US capacity scheduled over the next two years will actually be built on time.

The risk to demand continues to seem heavily weighted to the upside. The risk to supply continues to seem weighted toward less capacity getting built, not more.

[Daniel Roberts @danroberts0101]

Goldman's CommTech conference, San Francisco. 48 hours of @IREN_Ltd investor meetings, and the mood has shifted meaningfully.

Key takeaways:

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@jiahanjimliu @marksotoges Jim are we talking about gross or IT MW when you calculated the revenue/MW?

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@jiahanjimliu BTC rev, not Ai cloud! :)
As for PG according to the RSU-s it’ll be between 70-90

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

$IREN
FYQ2 (apr-jun) $BTC revenue
66,76 m $ (vs FYQ1: 111,2) -40%

mined $BTC: 921.64 (vs FYQ1: 1449.78) -36%

average $BTC price: 72,436$ (prev: 76,711$)

average EH/s: 21,75 (vs FYQ1: 36,05) -39%

Transition to AI Cloud business is in progress...

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

$IREN
Estimated FYQ2 (apr-jun) AI Cloud Revenue, according to Q1 12month RPOs: 70m$
Plus intraQ2 RPO (according to balance sheet Note 9: GPU asset and ROU asset: approx. 90-100m$)

Total rev.Q2:
161,8m$ (cons: 197,3)

AI Cloud 95m$ (cons: 113)
BTC 66,8m$ (cons: 90,3)

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

$IREN
FYQ2 (apr-jun) Bitcoin revenue, according to Arkham:

66,76 m $ (vs FYQ1: 111,2) -40%

$BTC mined: 921.64 (vs FYQ1: 1449.78) -36%
average BTC price: 72,436$ (prev: 76,711$)
average EH/s: 21,75 (vs FYQ1: 36,05) -39%

Transition to AI Cloud business is in progress...

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@_Sgr_A_Star @jiahanjimliu @BTCvitamins @shaunmmaguire @bitcoinbutcher1 With the remaining approx. 12mm mining rev. for june, it’d be 70mm all together for bitcoin in this quarter, and 163 as total revenue, which is again, a huge miss :/ digestion od this will depend on the communication of the board.

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@_Sgr_A_Star @jiahanjimliu @BTCvitamins @shaunmmaguire @bitcoinbutcher1 So according to this, what do you think what is correct estimation for the next earning's AI cloud revenue:
According to 1y RPOs, its 77mm, or according to the GPUs deliveres, is it approx. between 100-125mm?

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@_Sgr_A_Star @jiahanjimliu @BTCvitamins @shaunmmaguire @bitcoinbutcher1 How do you know, whether a GPU tranch is received or not? Also where does the company mentioned that how much is the high single digit interest?
Thanks a lot!

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

@_Sgr_A_Star Sorry for the late reply, I just finished Agrippa’s long new article. Quite long article. :) I’ve been digging into the numbers too, trying to estimate next quarter’s BTC revenue. Is your CA/US wallet data public? Thanks so much for your help! :)

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

on https://t.co/AymkzdbkLl https://t.co/RZ89vjyBF1 #flightradar24

[Valentin Dr. Sás @sas_valentin]

on https://t.co/AymkzdbkLl https://t.co/pY8PVrukVh #flightradar24

[Magyar Péter (Ne féljetek) @magyarpeterMP]

Történelmet írtunk! Isten áldja Magyarországot és minden magyar embert!❤️🤍💚