sibi

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

A team of experts free from political bias needs to travel across India to understand what our poverty actually looks like on the ground.

Headline numbers must be examined carefully.

I once did this exercise for Shamika Ravi.

Last year, the Indus Valley report observed that around 80% of Indians have negligible or zero ability to spend on discretionary goods.

Rama Bijapurkar is widely regarded as one of the most reliable experts on Indian consumption.
Her consumer segmentation:

L5 (Affluent): Annual household spend of ₹11.24 lakh+, covering just 25 million people

L4 (Resilient): ₹5.4 to 7 lakh, covering 71 million people

L3 (Real Middle): ₹3.8 to 5.4 lakh, covering 200 million people

L2 (Strained Mass): ₹2.2 to 3.8 lakh, covering 432 million people

L1 (Vulnerables): ₹1.1 to 2.2 lakh, covering a massive 707 million people

These figures refer to household expenditure, not individual spending.

Taken together, L1 and L2 account for nearly 80% of India’s population. For them, everyday life is a constant struggle. They are living on the edge.

The others are not living in luxury, but the scale of vulnerability at the bottom is stark.

80% of the country is just surviving and that too with great difficulty.

Over the years I have shared extensive data on income, expenditure, wealth and poverty.

We see only what we want to see.

We simply refuse to face reality.

[Good Governance Jokes @HeyParth2]

India is an extremely stressful country to live in!
I lived for 37 years outside India in the developed world and came back 10 years ago!

If you live in India, escape it!
If you are outside India, never come back to it!

1) There is no accountability from the govt or the sarkari babu for the income taxes you pay
2) Your income taxes are being looted with the tax terror attacks
3) Your expenses are up - but the govt refuses to inflation adjust income tax slabs yearly
4) You buy a vehicle you end up paying 50% in taxes and almost 50% in fuel costs and 18% GST on service just to run it - with tolls and pothole roads, and if you’re in accident your pay for repairs apart from the road rage or traffic cop harassment looking for a bribe
5) They are taxing you like Europe but giving your sub Sahara Africa returns
6) Pay Rs 25 lakhs in cancer treatment - with 12% GST on cancer medicine/ blood transfusions and deal with ageist doctors, money grab hospitals, rude nurses and still not be sure if the medicines are fake or genuine! Things go wrong - nobody is accountable
7) Food, water, milk, fruit - can all be contaminated- analogy paneer / washing powder in milk, anyone?
8) Have court cases against builders - they used a new govt policy to cheat you!
Get a judgment after 5 years in RERA (should take 60 days) and they don’t or can’t enforce their own judgments - the district administration doesn’t enforce recovery certificates ! Over 3000 pending in Gurugram alone over Rs 700 crores
9) invest in property ? The builder is already thinking of ways to cheat you! Changes your allotment, can delay project indefinitely, can change the CD, and they charge 5-8% in registration for this! Try to reason with them - they can shout at you or even threaten you!
10) invest in India markets? Govt can change policy arbitrarily every year - currency crashes, markets crash, FII run out and you’re left holding the bag!
They even take tax on losses with STT
11) Your children are breathing toxic air because of farm fires every November/ December! So what does the govt do? Make your own life miserable by GARP odd/even so you can’t even take them to school in your car.
12) Thinking of a start-up? Get influenced by all the unicorn stories ? Do you know how many failed or are failing because of corruption, incompetence and sarkari processes ?
13) Your parents pass - didn’t update their nominee details because they were nominees for each other ? Get ready for another nightmare with banks and courts!
14) Get income tax notices for something from 5 years ago - you can’t even remember what it was or what was missed during Covid or during deaths in the family - they will keep harassing you! “Where did your earn this interest in your bank from” they ask you! Why do you have accounts in foreign countries ?
Sir, NRI for 37 years - all white income!
See how much I also invested in India and through bank transfers, and pay in tax.
You need to drop everything in your life and answer them - or else!!!
you can’t sleep at night - until the next notice arrives!
15) Eating out? Can’t be sure if you will get diarrhoea or typhoid ! Wife in hospital for Typhoid!
Come home for 1 hour to freshen up at 10 pm and they move her to ICU when you are not there.
Sir -Blood pressure dropped due to blood transfusion!
But she was fine?
16) Go to any sarkari office - get treated like dirt!
They will work at their own pace - no integrity or shame!
Why did you even bother coming?
17) lose your job working in the private sector? Is there safety net for you and your family?
18) Don’t buy gold or invest in $$! But politicians are distributing gold to their voters!

If you are a private sector individual in India - leave asap or become corrupt - that’s the lesson!

@narendramodi @PMOIndia
@FinMinIndia @nsitharaman @indSupremeCourt @MLJ_GoI
@MoHUA_India @IncomeTaxIndia @IncomeTaxPayers @MoHFW_INDIA @NRIPulse #NRI #AbolishIncomeTax @RBI @DrSJaishankar @MEAIndia @CivicOp_india @cmohry #Gurugram #Haryana #India

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

I honestly don’t know if the government will undertake any tax reforms for the capital markets.

If they do so at all, the changes should benefit local investors as well, not only foreign investors.

We are not lesser mortals.

Indian retail investors take risks even with small amounts of capital.

In a capital starved nation, risk capital should be rewarded regardless of whether it comes from foreign or local sources.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Akash Prakash is a neutral commentator.

When he explains why FIIs have lost interest in India, it is worth listening.

FIIs are now much less convinced about India’s growth story.

Unless the Finance Ministry makes substantial structural changes in capital markets, including taxation, there is no clear trigger right now to attract foreign capital.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Food inflation is rising fast.

People like us on Twitter know it is due to El Nino, a steep increase in the price of imported fertilisers and farm inputs, huge supply chain disruption, high shipping costs, an increase in the price of energy and power, and so on.

A common man would only blame the government for food inflation.

Food and related items already accounts for close to 50% of the monthly expenses of average Indian households.

Add to that rent, electricity, transport, education, healthcare and other expenses, and day to day living is becoming more and more difficult.

In good times, people credit the government, and in bad times they blame it. This is how it has always been.

I don’t know how many of you remember.

The increase in onion prices became such a challenge for former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government.

I don’t know whether it is instigated or organic.

A lot of protests across Europe cite increasing prices and the unaffordability of even basics as the reason for unrest.

80% of our population has no money. The government needs to plan and be ready not only to procure sufficient supply but also to hugely subsidise the following:

LPG
Electricity
Petrol
Diesel
Rice
Wheat
Dal
Milk
Onions
Tomatoes
Potatoes

And any other essentials for day to day living that got missed out above.

This would not only ensure the basic survival of all but also prevent any kind of unrest, whether instigated or organic.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Layoffs are becoming common.

The least the government can do is not tax severance pay, benefits, and full and final settlement.

Individual taxpayers contribute more than corporates in the country.

This is all the more significant given that only about 2% of the population pays income tax.

Taxpayers don’t get proportional benefits from the government.

Not taxing severance pay would put more money in the hands of affected employees.

This is the least the government can do for taxpayers.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

‘I told you so’ is not something to mention cheerfully, especially when what was said is negative.

From the time long term capital gains tax was brought back, I have been tirelessly pointing out how unfair it is to have both STT and long term capital gains tax.

Even when I was a BJP supporter, I criticised how disastrous the 2019 budget was. From that time, I have been consistent in saying that Nirmala Sitharaman is unfit to be a finance minister.

She reduced corporate tax but kept the individual tax rate as it is. In fact, the individual tax rate went as high as 42 percent and is now around 39 percent.

Income tax is paid by a tiny fraction of the population. Still, the amount they pay is more than what all corporates in India put together pay.

Individuals paying cumulatively more than corporates started only during the period of the current Finance Minister. This is a travesty of justice.

This government has no clue about capital markets or risk capital. Prime Minister’s most trusted officer Hasmukh Adhia said making profits from markets requires no effort. Then why do very few create wealth and most get wiped out from capital markets?

Neither Hasmukh Adhia nor Nirmala Sitharaman would have ever invested even a single rupee in capital markets.

All asset classes are not equal because the nature of risk is different. In a capital starved country, risk capital needs to be incentivised.

For those who say it is only the secondary market, without ease of entry and exit in secondary markets, the primary market would cease to exist. And without that, there would be zero risk capital.

The odds of success in trading are already very low. The government has kept increasing STT, making trading unviable.

The government simply does not understand that trading provides two important things for markets: liquidity and price discovery. Without liquidity and price discovery, secondary markets would become practically useless.

Even in 2024, after NDA won the elections, I tagged the Prime Minister multiple times stating that anyone other than Nirmala Sitharaman should be considered for Finance Minister because she would prove to be economically disastrous for the country. And unfortunately, I am proven right.

The Finance Ministry is only good at setting narratives like poverty has been rooted out in India, we would become a developed superpower by 2047, and the latest narrative of how economically powerful we are becoming on a PPP basis.

I have repeatedly shown with data and facts how every single narrative is false and disconnected from reality. The Finance Ministry lives in a completely different reality.

Even developed nations understand how important foreign capital is. But our finance minister said in Parliament it is ok if foreign capital goes away because we have domestic retail investors. Certain statements are coming back to haunt us.

As I have said in the past, it is not that this government did not do anything positive. But given the huge mandate, the last twelve years are wasted opportunities on an overall basis. And the contribution of the Finance Ministry to these wasted opportunities is significant.

For many years, I have been trolled, criticised, and abused for questioning the finance minister and the government’s economic policies.

Now every well meaning individual realises how disastrous the Finance Minister has been for both the economy and capital markets.

My views stand vindicated now. Still, you do not feel happy when your negative views come true.

[Investing @ Prakash @Prakashplutus]

The entire capital markets ecosystem — listed companies, AMCs, exchanges, depositories, brokers, investment bankers, prop traders, HNIs, retail investors & RTAs — creates massive high-paying jobs.

A slowdown here doesn’t just hit markets.
It hits consumption. It hits the Indian economy.

Better we take the action now.

[Abhijeet Dipke @abhijeet_dipke]

For opposition:

Yes, elections are being rigged. But when you continue to participate in rigged elections, you legitimise these elections and help maintain the illusion that they are free and fair.

Maybe you keep contesting because you fear that if you don’t, you will stop existing. But what kind of existence are you trying to protect when votes are being stolen, your MLAs and MPs are being poached, and your parties are being split?

This is not political survival. You are simply trying to stay alive in a system that can weaken you, split your party or take away your elected representatives whenever it wants. How long can you survive like this?

And you cannot talk about election rigging only when it happens in states that matter to you and remain silent when it happens elsewhere. If elections are being rigged, it should matter regardless of the state or which party is affected.

You cannot keep saying the game is rigged while continuing to play it. Your participation is the only thing that gives these rigged elections legitimacy.

Think about the nation and its democracy before thinking about your own political survival. Take a stand and stop participating in rigged elections.

[Abhijeet Dipke @abhijeet_dipke]

Gyanesh Kumar must go!

Demand 1: Initiation of criminal proceedings against Gyanesh immediately, and an answer to the question: Who gave him the orders?

Demand 2: Put all upcoming elections on hold. Freeze the SIR and restore the January 2025 voter list. Set up an independent inquiry into the entire SIR decision-making process. We also demand that the Supreme Court immediately take custody of all SIR-related files to ensure no records are destroyed, altered or go missing.

Demand 3: Repeal the 2023 law on the appointment of the Election Commissioners of India and enact a new law that inspires public confidence, with the active participation of members of civil society.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

There is nothing unusual about prolonged bear markets.

But the government has made this worse by refusing to address the concerns of FIIs and our own retail investors, and by saying in Parliament that we are not dependent on FII money and that FIIs have no option but to invest in India.

Hubris often leads to a downfall.

[Abid Hassan 🇮🇳 @abidsensibull]

3 years back a colleague of mine was getting married somewhere in Bihar/MP/UP belt. And he invited the whole team for wedding. The wedding destination was 300 kilometres from the nearest airport and passed through non urban centres. One member of our team vehemently opposed this and said, “You have to be crazy to attend that wedding and take our women team mates along. If something happens or the car breaks down who is going to e responsible for their safety. I won’t let our girl team mates go there”

We eventually did not go. Last week in Bihar is a grim reminder why he was more right than paranoid

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

NSA Ajit Doval has said that India’s GDP would become $38 trillion in the next 20 years, a horizon he linked to 2047.

That implies the economy would grow nearly ten times in two decades.

Over the last twelve years of the current government, our GDP has only doubled.

On what basis would it grow another ten times in the next 20 years?

Why every goal is set for 2047?

Why not set measurable goals every five years?

If the government does not have clarity as to what is possible and what must be done to reach there, long range targets can create a sense of a great future that may not be achieved.

[Investing @ Prakash @Prakashplutus]

Important Warning ⚠️

Pump & dump is running full swing again in low-float Microcaps / SME stocks.

Same playbook as last cycle: operators accumulate cheap, flood Telegram/WhatsApp with “pakka multibagger” tips, retail FOMO buys the top — then they dump.

Tiny float makes it easy to pump 2-3X and crash 70-90%.

Don’t become their exit. Ignore unverified tips. Check float, volumes & fundamentals.

Stay careful.

[Piyush Chaudhry @piyushchaudhry]

Sometimes I wonder: if it's all a Grand Design?
Government deliberately puts us in such situations. Think about it like this. Traders were fine with the regime. Then came more and more restrictions. Starting with Less weekly expiries. ELM. STT hikes. Yet, Traders were trying to navigate. They adapted. They found new ways to survive.
So, kill it all -- CAS.

Now, the point here is this: people will always keep the stress of making Money as the Top priority.
Because when income gets in trouble, one doesn't focus on anything else. Survival comes first.
And this is where the larger picture begins to emerge.

The Government has been taking:
Taxes on Transactions (STT)
Taxes on Income, which you make after paying the Taxes at the first place
Tax on Expenses (GST)
various other forms of taxes, cess and surcharges
This is a never ending list.

All of it keeps reducing the final income in hand -- The Net Disposable Income.
So what happens when disposable income keeps getting squeezed?
People look for ways to make more. Traders resort to higher leverage to Trade. Others turn to Personal Loans. Credit Card Debt. And once you're in, you never get out.
You keep earning to service the debt created to maintain the lifestyle that your shrinking disposable income can no longer support.

And there is another layer to this -- Compliance.
Less for Traders, perhaps, but monumental for any Business.
Any Entrepreneur in India spends more time complying, filing, documenting, reporting and paying, while the cost of running the business keeps rising.

Yet, in the midst of all this, something rather important gets lost. You forget to ask: Where are my Taxes going? What about the quality of Life the Government is supposed to offer?

Because asking that question requires something that becomes increasingly scarce when people are financially stressed: when a person's primary concern is paying the next EMI, recovering the Trading loss, clearing the credit card bill, keeping the business alive or simply maintaining the house, the larger questions begin to disappear from the Mind.

Politics becomes secondary. Governance becomes secondary. Accountability becomes secondary.
Survival becomes the primary focus.

And this is "The Grand Design".

You don't necessarily have to silence people by force.
It can be done in a more subtle way.
You can simply keep them sufficiently occupied with their own financial survival. A financially stressed population spends its energy fighting its own circumstances. It has less energy left to question the circumstances created around it. And perhaps this is where the entire cycle closes.

And somewhere in the chaos, the most fundamental questions get drowned out.

[Piyush Chaudhry @piyushchaudhry]

To @SEBI_updates @FinMinIndia @PMOIndia

Closing Auction Session (CAS) is a violation on the following major counts. These are as per SEBI Act, 1992 and Supreme Court rulings involving SEBI.

1. SEBI v. Kanaiyalal Baldevbhai Patel, (2017) 15 SCC 1

Supreme Court while observing under SEBI (Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices relating to Securities Market) Regulations, 2003:
“Market manipulation is normally regarded as an ‘unwarranted’ interference in the operation of ordinary market forces of supply and demand and thus undermines the ‘integrity’ and efficiency of the market.”

With thin liquidity under CAS, the ordinary forces of supply and demand are not functioning, thereby undermining Market's integrity and efficiency.

2. In a SEBI order in Riddhi Siddhi Gluco Biols Limited, SEBI expressly stated:

“By executing a fraudulent scheme, as has been executed by the Noticees in the instant matter, the price discovery system itself is affected. It also has an adverse impact on the fairness, integrity and transparency of the stock market.”

The fraudulent scheme part can be ignored, what remains is the price discovery system.

3. Under the SEBI Securities Contracts (Regulation) (Stock Exchanges and Clearing Corporations) Regulations, 2018:

Regulation 7(3)(a)
“the necessary infrastructure for the orderly execution of trades”

Regulation 7(3)(c)
“an online surveillance capability which monitors positions, prices and volumes in real time so as to ensure market integrity”

With prices moving 2-3% on thin liquidity, both the sections are compromised.

4. SEBI Circular No. HO/47/11/11(3)2025-MRD-POD2/I/2765/2026, dated 16 January 2026

Title:
“Introduction of Closing Auction Session (CAS) in the Equity Cash Segment and certain modifications in the Pre-Open Auction Session”

Paragraph 2.1
“CAS aggregates market interest into a single pool of liquidity, thereby providing a fair and transparent closing price and improving the efficiency of execution for large orders.”

Paragraph 2.2
“The significance of a fair and transparent closing price, especially since it is used as the reference for settlement in derivatives, index computation, mutual fund net asset value (NAV) determination, etc.”

Paragraph 2.3
“Provides equal and transparent access to all categories of investors, ensuring that the discovered closing price reflects the collective market consensus at the close of trading hours.”

The question is on fair closing price and market consensus.

[Ashish Gupta @AshishGupta325]

Government launched SGB without the backing of the gold. Gold went 3X in 6 years and government is taking brutal loss in the scheme.

Now it launches leveraged FCNR that yields 16% pa on USD. Again, this is without the backing of USD.

What happens if INR weakens in 5 years?

[sibi @SASShahSAS]

@saketh1998 So many questions, Anti - National !

[⭐JC 🏹 @niftywizard]

Retweet if you agree Indian market is dead after this CAS implementation without plan!

[Abid Hassan 🇮🇳 @abidsensibull]

Please keep your elderly parents safe. Don't let a bank Relationship Manager call them on phone

Please retweet for wide reach. Issued in public interest