Saturnalia

Navigating the trenches of crypto | Trying to learn and document | Nothing is financial advise but a documentary of my thoughts / $SOL $HYPE

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

$HYPE holding to the moon
Give me every dip you can

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

https://t.co/Uswz931h3h

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@WhiteWhaleLabs eager to know your thoughts (:

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

It is important to understand where the liquidity shift is actually happening right now and how it affects our crypto bags.

The Fed has held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% for three meetings in a row, and in their April statement they were actually signaling that cuts were coming. What changed this week is different, and arguably more important.

Two things happened.

CPI came in at its highest in nearly 3 years and PPI was even hotter. On the same day, Kevin Warsh got confirmed as the new Fed chair replacing Powell. In 48 hours, markets repriced everything — rate cuts got priced out of 2026 entirely, and a non-zero probability of a hike got priced in.

This is why bond yields shot up. The 10-year Treasury is now at 4.60%, highest in a year. The 30-year is at 5.12%. These are not safe-haven flows — these are markets repricing what they think the Fed will actually do over the next 6-12 months.

What this means for our bags: when real yields move up like this, capital rotates. But here is the part most people get wrong - it does not rotate into Treasuries. Treasuries are getting sold off too, which is why yields are rising in the first place. The actual rotation is into assets with durable cash flows.

This is why we are seeing one of the strangest divergences in years.

S&P at 7,423 ATH, but 7 of 11 sectors were RED on May 13. The index was green only because Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft were green.

The top 10 stocks now make up 36.5% of the S&P, and Goldman estimates that AI capex alone is driving 40% of S&P EPS growth this year. Megacap tech is absorbing every dollar that exits risk assets. Not bonds. Tech.

Crypto is unfortunately on the wrong side of this rotation. Bitcoin's only real bid mechanism is liquidity. When liquidity tightens, BTC has nothing else to defend itself with - no earnings, no buybacks, no forward guidance. The data shows this clearly: BTC ETF flows reversed from $629M of inflows on May 1 to $233M of outflows by May 12. Funding rates have been negative for 74 consecutive days. BTC is at $79K, still 38% below the October ATH.

In my understanding, this is the actual cause of the recent dump, even though there are obviously other factors at play. The macro regime has changed and crypto has not yet finished pricing in what that means.

On the flip side, this is an excellent opportunity to DCA into quality projects if you missed them on the way up (read HYPE, SOL, BTC under $80K etc.).

Every cycle, the cleanest entries on quality crypto have come when macro looked exactly like this - negative funding for months, ETF outflows, equity rotation
away from the asset class, alt sentiment on the floor.

The two things to watch are real yields (10Y TIPS) and the June 11 CPI print. If real yields crack back below 2.2%, or CPI comes in cool, this regime flips fast and risk assets get a bid. If not, we get more chop and downside through the summer.

Position accordingly. Not financial advice, just my read on where the puck is going.

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

$HYPE doesn't stop, we keep cooking even on spot

1 trade and then enjoy the summer >>>> trench for 16 hours

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

$PUMP and https://t.co/CCyiLAZz2O has been going on a downward spiral since some time and $HANTA has been the latest casualty

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

https://t.co/LfUcj94Wky

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

https://t.co/LfUcj94Wky

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@_gas404 Check dms (:

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

https://t.co/d8bpp7AvgH

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

$ZEC

3 months and we are up 2x

Not the sexiest meme coin kinda trade but good enough for a sized 6 fig trade

Sometimes you make more by trading less

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

Loaded up on $ZCASH because privacy meta will run hard af again 2026

> Its down like 20-30% just because of change in ownership fud

> Doesn't change the coin in anyway, infact it does the opposite where the team has more freedom to ship faster

> @mert and other big bois are supporting it

I think the news is bullish instead of bearish and yet somehow market thinks otherwise

Information asymmetry and we swap it

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@ChrisKogias dryer than a Sahara dessert, best to touch grass

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

Atleast something is cooking

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

Thank you Mr alon and Pump fun

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

New age tech https://t.co/1r0GCJnxXm

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

Interesting way the algorithm is being pushed by X to increase the revenue

Borderline genius if you want to call it

Basically X’s algorithm states for you to grow you should

- Write articles
- My entire feed is just articles
- You cannot just write articles, you need Pro subscription for that
- So basically in the bid to increase the following, you need to buy Pro version to post articles
- $$$ for X which means more money for @elonmusk and more bonus for @nikitabier
- Not necessarily a bad thing but an ingenious way to solve spam + improve business operations

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

shoutout to @frankdegods and @fomomofosol for their content on using claude, its time to vibe code a lot of apps that can solve problems of crypto

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

I just create a professional studio quality video in 10 minutes using Claude Code

No After Effects.

No Premiere Pro.

No design skills.

Just me and Claude

The future of content creation is here.

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@LeeLeepenkman @TheAhmadOsman we made you a coin just like ralph

claim this for all the hard work (:

HAK9cX1jfYmcNpr6keTkLvxehGPWKELXSu7GH2ofBAGS

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@ChrisKogias gm gm

[Saturnalia @saturnaliasol]

@Reethmos brrrr