Time to get Nate Silver a lesson in statistics. If x is random (representing fraction of votes for Biden) and selection bias u < 0 is known. Then P(x+u> .5) != 1. In fact. P(x+u> .5) < P(x> .5)
There's this dumb argument circulating that if you'd known in advance what would happen—i.e. Trump beating his polls—you shouldn't have Biden e.g. a 90% chance of winning. Actually, if you'd known in advance what would happen, you should have given Biden a 100% chance of winning!
There's this dumb argument circulating that if you'd known in advance what would happen—i.e. Trump beating his polls—you shouldn't have Biden e.g. a 90% chance of winning. Actually, if you'd known in advance what would happen, you should have given Biden a 100% chance of winning!
To be clear:
In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump will be ahead by 10-15% UNTIL all those early (Dem-leaning) absentee ballots are counted. Then he'll lose.
Trump will say bc he's ahead, this means he won. A phalanx of talking heads will say so too. It will be a LIE.
Now that Florida seems to have gone to Trump, let's pause to note that @NateSilver538 had it going to Biden by 2.5% and @gelliottmorris gave Biden an 80% of carrying the state.
@predictit (while crippled at the moment) has consistently favored Trump to win the state.
Jussayin.
Mandalorian Season 2 Ep 1 Recap: A lone traveler helps a desert village exterminate an indigenous species that closely resembles the fauna in Frank Herbert's Dune.
#Mandalorian#Dune#dunemovie