I've been thinking about this more frequently lately. In the early 2000s the rise of computers in work environments promised us less working hours for more output. We have surpassed the projected output by an exponential amount. And yet humans are asked to work more than ever.
Progress achieved in 1 day in May 2026 is equal to:
> 19 days in 2000
> 1.6 years in 1900
Derived from a geometric mean across 8 metrics: compute per dollar, DNA sequencing throughput per dollar, frontier AI training scale, papers published per day, patents filed per day, internet-connected humans, global GDP, drugs in clinical pipeline.
The number is domain dependent. If in AI or biology it's closer to 3,000x and 3x in courts and real estate.
I'm not saying the above numbers and formulation are correct. In fact, there are a bunch of things wrong with it. For example, GDP and DNA sequencing are not the same kind of thing. Patent counts in 2026 are inflated by defensive filing and AI generated applications. Research output per researcher is declining 5% per year in many fields. Drug pipelines have long timelines that compute can't all together eliminate. A large percent of current compute and papers is spent maintaining existing complexity, not creating new capability.
I'm more just curious. Has anyone built a formal model for progress density as a function of time that helps build intuitions?
Here's how I'd break this down:
Every major shift in content creation has had doomsayers predicting the death of human creators:
- Photography would kill painting (it didn't)
- Video would kill radio (it didn't)
- Digital music would kill musicians (it didn't)
- Social media would kill traditional media (it adapted)
What actually happens: The tools get democratized, the bar raises, and the winners are those who understand this truth...
People don't follow content. They follow PEOPLE.
AI can generate a perfect video. But it can't generate:
- Your unique perspective
- Your lived experience
- Your personality
- Your community connection
- Trust built over time
The real question isn't "Will AI replace creators?"
It's "Which creators will use AI to 10x their output while maintaining their authentic voice?"
The creators who'll struggle are the ones making generic, templated content that's already soulless. AI will just expose that they were never adding real value.
The creators who'll thrive are the ones who:
1. Use AI as a production assistant - Let it handle editing, thumbnails, scripts drafts
2. Double down on authenticity - Their stories, their takes, their community
3. Focus on connection over perfection - People want real, not polished
4. Leverage AI to test and iterate faster - More experiments = more winners
Bottom line: AI doesn't kill creators. It kills lazy content. And that's a good thing for everyone building real businesses.
The opportunity isn't scary. It's massive.
A woman goes into the woods. She encounters a man and a bear. The man is actually cake. The bear has two wolves inside it. The wolves want to know if you would love them if they were a worm