Congratulations,@udaykotak … on the Padma Bhushan
Some recognitions may make headlines (as they should)…like this one that I repeat… ‘Congratulations, @udaykotak … on the Padma Bhushan’. And yet, this one to me, also feels like a quiet correction… like the country finally saying… yes, this was due. About time…About time. I spent many years at @KotakBankLtd And to be honest… I didn’t just learn banking there. I learned how institutions are built… how trust is protected… how character shows up in decisions that no one claps for.
Mr. Kotak’s influence on people like me was never about speeches. It was in his insistence on fundamentals, and the way he made it into the SOPs and rules we followed in every action we took at the bank. It was, for me, like going to India’s top-notchUniversity for learning the right kind of Banking. Think of Mr. Kotak as the Vice-Chancellor of that University.
Balance sheet thinking… before P&L excitement. Governance… before growth. Compliance… not as a burden, but as self-respect. Ownership… not as a slogan, but as a daily constant. If it’s yours… you don’t delegate responsibility… you carry it. And I have said this before and am proud to say again… without realising it… we went from boys to men. Businessmen.
What I admired most was his calm. The ability to play long-term… without losing the present. To scale… without cutting corners. To win… without needing noise. Which is why this Padma Bhushan is not just for one individual… it’s for a way of building institutions. Disciplined. Ethical. Patient. Congratulations, Sir… and thank you.
For the standards you set… and the people you shaped… we owe you more than we can say. Let’s say this again, and out loud- Congratulations, @udaykotak… on the Padma Bhushan.
Monetary policy: Focus on Financial Stability. Rate pause without change in stance. Global banking fragility on every Central Bank’s mind in this viral digital world. While Indian financial system is in good shape, let’s “be not slack and be diligent”!
Credit Suisse sold to UBS for 3 bn $. 60%discount to stock value at Friday closing. ~600 bn $ balance sheet sold for 3 bn $ equity value. 17 bn $ of AT1 bonds written off. A signal for all bankers and stakeholders, when risk return matrix is overtaken by obsession with size.
Buffet nuggets:
1.Think of equity investing as buying businesses in their entirety, not as buying stocks.
2.Look to invest in businesses which invest their capital conservatively and which seek to exist forever.
3.Avoid impatient people and impatient companies.
Inflation facts: Eurozone CPI
8.6% overnight rate(MLR)
3.25%, US CPI 6.40% Fed Funds rate 4.75, India CPI
6.50%Repo rate 6.50%.
Shows India well ahead of the curve on inflation fight vs.others. But the world needs to move to interest rates ahead of inflation, real interest rates!
Overnight developments in US banking: markets, analysts, investors underestimate the importance of financial stability for the balance sheet of a bank. When interest rates move up 500 bps from zero in a year, an accident was waiting to happen somewhere.
Even as the global turmoil continues in financial markets, the macro factors are turning better for India. Current account deficit looks below 2.5% Fy 23, and going below 2% in Fy 24. Lower oil helps. If we walk our talk and navigate well, India can stand out in this turbulence.
Global central bank balance sheets take huge losses as they bought long term bonds and de facto printed money. Who pays? Sovereign.Signs of sticky inflation in US. More interest rate hikes likely. And higher for longer. Remember airplane turbulence? Fasten seat belts worldwide!
As we welcome 2023 with some trepidation of global uncertainty, are we in Cinderella times? Or Goldilocks? Geopolitics, good policy, balanced regulation, surgical execution, can make Cinderella into Goldilocks.India’s opportunity to walk the talk. Look forward to budget 2023.
Budget with vision, structure,discipline. Immediate benefits to all individual earners. Continues measured path of fiscal consolidation. Sets foundation to increase every Indian’s per capita income exponentially from 1.97 lakhs( 2400$).True to its name: 1st budget for Amritkaal.
I do not see systemic risk to Indian financial system from recent events. However,large Indian corporates rely more on global sources for debt and equity finance. This creates challenges and vulnerabilities. Time to further strengthen Indian underwriting and capacity building.
IL&FS. Good to see continued progress on returning creditors’ money. We may recollect it’s default against total debt of ~1 lakh crores across 347 companies in September 2018 was considered a systemic risk and ‘India’s Lehman moment’. https://t.co/xeIRxhK2qK
High Commissioner @AlexWEllis met @udaykotak to discuss 🇬🇧🇮🇳 financial services cooperation.
This sector partnership has delivered excellent results on the priorities set by the two finance ministers at the 11th Economic and Financial Dialogue with an ambition to grow further.
Jan 1,23, world as is:
Economic nationalism centre stage.
Non democratic strongmen a bloc whether Russia, China, Turkey, Middle East.
Idea of limited government and individual dignity in question.
Battle between Western liberal democracies and strongmen countries. Who wins?
@SamsungIndia its been a harrowing experience with your service agency at mumbai , have been following with one or the other person daily for repairs .. most expensive fridge comes with most breakouts most expensive repairs and most followups and nil results
Fought 14 wars. Never took captives. Never damaged anyone's place of worship. Believed in ‘Dharam Yudh.’ A Warrior for Truth. Greetings to all on #gurugobindsinghjayanti 🙏🏽
As we head into 2023 - three risks we must prepare for:
1. Inflation remains stickier for longer.
2. Russia does something unpredictable.
3. China drives to become numero uno.
Wish all a happy 2023.