Should you play tournaments early if you have a skill edge? On the one hand, late registration gives you and ICM advantage. On the other hand, the field is softer at the beginning of a tournament. I simulated millions of vanilla tournaments to find out.
- Pro cohort (300 players): Plays from start, always re-enters if allowed, has advantage vs recs.
- Late-reg cohort (200 players): Max late registers, has advantage vs recs.
- Rec cohort (500 players): plays from start and re-enters at most once, has disadvantage vs other cohorts.
- Advantage: 52% to 48% coin flip.
Late reg cutoff occurs when half the field remains.
Results: (Total ROI)
Pro = 15.2%
Late-reg = 27.9%
Rec = -18.4%
Takeaway:
Late reg cohort won by a landslide. It's hard to beat the ICM benefits conferred from late registration (10-15% ROI boost right off the bat from pure ICM advantage).
The pro cohort did well but failed to outperform late reg. The thing is, if you have a big advantage over the field from start, you probably still have a big advantage when late registering. The field doesn't get *that* much tougher.
Now obviously one simulation doesn't prove anything. But I question the mantra that you should always play soft fields from start. Is it really worth giving up 10-15% of your ROI just to have a slightly softer field?
I wish someone had told me this when I first started playing seriously:
Raw equity is almost meaningless on its own.
What matters is how much of it you realize.
Here’s how to spot losing calls before they drain your bankroll: 🧵
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[ #LIVE ] A Las Vegas, Le Français Clément Richez remporte l'Event #89 des #WSOP : le 3,000$ Mid-Stakes Championship pour 1.041.989$. C’est la 3e victoire française sur cette édition 2024 🔥🔥🔥🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
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14 hard truths that will make you WIN LONG-TERM MONEY in Poker 📈📈📈
1⃣ You don't win because you're not lucky; you don't win because you're not good.
2⃣ Statistics don't have a memory. Just because you've run bad for the last few weeks doesn't mean you will run better.
3⃣ Nobody cares about your bad beat stories.
4⃣ You don't deserve anything in Poker.
5⃣ Your feelings are not an excuse to play poorly. You can still play well while feeling angry.
6⃣ You are not special. You need bankroll management as much as others.
7⃣ You are the fish if you don't know how to exploit your opponents at your table.
8⃣ Winning at Poker is not cool. It doesn't require any fancy line. Solid, simple, and patience will win in the long term.
9⃣ Worrying about other poker players' winnings or financial situations and engaging in drama is the ultimate loser behavior.
🔟What matters is making the correct plays at REAL poker tables and real opponents, not solver-approved plays.
1⃣1⃣ Early - Midgame in Poker Tournaments is quite boring. You play tight and patient. In the late game, you (can) turn into a psycho going after scared and weak opponents.
1⃣2⃣ BIG Ego in Poker = Broke
1⃣3⃣ Moving down in stakes is a superpower.
1⃣4⃣ Folding good hands on the River is mandatory! Don't fall in love with your Top Pairs (vs. 3 barrels or River Raies)
Thanks for reading!
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