ShaunC bets

Sharing stat based bets and bets that represent good value to me, P/L attached in my bio 📈 18.5% over 1210 bets 💰

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Rayo do the business over the course of the season ✅✅

Need Wolves to beat Burnley tomorrow for the longshot 🤞

Possibly might throw out a few outrights between the World Cup and next season 👍

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

🇪🇸 Rayo Vallecano to finish in Top 10 of La liga 🇪🇸

1.25u @ 3.6 and 0.25u @ 18.9 Longshot both on Betfair.

Reasoning ⬇️

A standout price here in the La Liga as Rayo Vallecano push to reach new heights.

A strong season finishing 8th sees them qualify for Europe for the first time in 25 years where they will compete in the Conference League. Ultimately a deep European run could be the biggest downfall in the bet winning as squad depth is a slight concern.

👇 A quite summer transfer window 👇

Looking into summer signings before we dive into last seasons stats, it has been quite stale in comparison to other clubs as they secured the permanent transfers of Gerard Gumbau and Augusto Batalla who were both on loan at Rayo last season anyways. The notable signing however is Luiz Felipe from Marseille on a free agent, many will have know him from his time at lazio and the solid no nonsense CB will be a very good replacement for the outgoing Aridane Hernandez who has struggled with injuries at the end of last season.

With time still left in the transfer window there is one position Rayo Vallecano is crying out for, A number 9 type striker that will feed of the openings the talented attacking midfield trio behind him, Rumours are rampant with reports of Andre Silva supposedly being at final stages of putting pen to paper which would immensely increase there chances.

👇 2024/2025 Seasons 👇

Let’s break last season into numbers to see is there room for improvements or are rayo a flash in the pan.

League ranking - 8th on 52 points
Goals conceded - 7th least with 45 goals
XG created - 47.07 - 8th most in league
Goals scored - 41 goals - 13th most in league
Away form - 26 points - 6th in league
Home form - 26 points - 13th in league

The real notes to take out of the above info for me is :

- Tight as a nut defensively and have strengthened backline from last season.
- Top 8 for XG created, players like Izi Palazon, Alvaro Garcia, Jorge De Frutos if fit easily produce numbers like that again this season.
- 13th for most goals scored, Crying out for this number 9 that can convert chances. De Frutos top Rayo scorer last season with 6 goals. Interesting few weeks ahead in the window.
- A perfect 26 points split in home/away form. Not dependent on making campo de futbol de vallecas a fortress.

👇 Inigo Perez 2nd full season at the helm 👇

Last season I was so impressed with Perez in his first full season as a manager, Between the front foot pressing and perfectly executed defensive shape led by captain Florian Lejeune, to sum up how tactically aware and competitive Rayo have been under Perez. They played Real Madrid and Barcelona a combined 4 times in the league last season. Losing 3 matches by a single goal and a draw in the other.

With 56 games under his belt and an average of 1.34 points per game. If these numbers are to be replicated this season by Perez it will have Rayo finish on 50.92 points which would have had them in the top 10 of the La liga in each of the last 5 seasons.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@TLBETS_ Yeah very frustrating times to be a honest and genuine tipster, I think you’ll pick up way more traction if you add a few 0s to your stakes and throw some buzzwords into the tweets sadly 🫣

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Gambling X has really changed and not for the better over the past year.

Was quite mandatory/the norm to attach a link to a publicly tracked P/L to gain any traction or credibility, seems very seldom to get access to a P/L these days or even see a P/L for that matter 🤔

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@TLBETS_ Problem I’ve recently noticed is people seem to not want the 1.8-2.2 odds on here anymore and runs it down as “anyone can do it” type of vibes when in reality its the most sustainable method and without doubt the least volatile compared to the longshot punts approach…

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@Rhitz_Betting I think between bet365 liquidity on props going into the bin and the target audience clearly there for the fun punts market, I rarely see a well researched prop bet that offers good insight, awful pity as used to be some great originality in niche leagues on here regularly.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@MugsGameBets 💯 agree with you mate, wouldn’t like to be a naive punter purely taking bets from X nowadays, between the fomo from slips and chasing losses you could fall down a slippery/worrying slope 👍

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@realganjahboyy Been away from the game for a while brother, might make a return some day, who knows 😆

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Brilliant article giving an insight into the difficulties us bettors face of constantly finding an edge and being restricted/limited for it.

Well worth the few minutes to read to see the prospective from the bookmakers side 😀

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors:

▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped).

▫️Rest of players called “Square”.

▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%.

▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%.

▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%.

▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums.

▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge.

▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk

▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me).

▫️How sportsbook profile players:

> Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play)
> Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models)
> E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds)
> Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets)

▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game).

▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays).

▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often).

▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.”

▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.”

▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable).

▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%).

▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread.

▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet.

▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers.

▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings.

***

Lots other great details here: https://t.co/RH1KMF7k90

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Service update :

Hi all, it may come as a shock to most of you but I’ve made the decision to finish the vip effective immediately.

I’ve issued refunds to everyone so expect it to hit your bank in the next few days therefore it will have been a completely free service over the past 3 weeks on telegram and overall will be over 1280 free tips with 217u profit and 17.4% ROI based of 27 tracked months. Something I’m incredibly proud off.

Overall I’ve always loved tipping on X as it was a free rein for me, could post when it suited me with many work commitments and attack angles that I thought held value.

I’ve never had any intentions about going behind a paywall until the start of this season where I felt like a lot of my niche angles from less popular leagues would have many eyes on them thus losing the angle for future weeks.

Literally just to protect my angles for future use. With the way bet365 (major bookmaker for my style of bets in niche leagues) liquidity has went from the start of the season prices are going regardless.

Add into the factor added stress trying to increase output while juggling work commitments and family life to try offer the service I felt was warranted for £20 a month then I really feel it’s not something I want to pursue going forward.

Yes I could easily keep grinding it out month by month and accept a low ROI given prices dropping by 10/20% instantly nowadays but it’s just something I really don’t want to commit to as the whole motto behind my channel from the beginning in June 2023 was to find value where others may not have seen or missed.

I had many plans in place for the coming weeks/months to make this service as good as any but have put all plans to a halt obviously.

It’s been a hell of a ride these past 2 years with 24 out of 27 months in profit then I’d like to think plenty have benefited from my page. As of now there will be no more tips for the foreseeable future, I may return on X at some stage but won’t be in the near future.

Any issues regarding refunds (please allow 5-10 days) then you can contact me directly on X or telegram and I can check it out. Thanks all for the support down the years been very much appreciated ❤️

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Prices have dropped since the premium group has took but still solid enough given the stats to support the bets.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs Andorra 🇦🇩

TRACKED BETS :

1.5u @ 1.8 - Under 3.5 England offsides, Under 15.5 Andorra tackles and over 13.5 England throws and under 16 England corners

*If main bet falls below odds of 1.72 then add under 16 England corners as shown in 2nd screenshot and will track the odds on that after 10 mins *

0.25u @ 4.5 - Over 16.5 England throws, Under 13.5 Andorra tackles, Under 2.5 England offsides and Andorra under 1 goal

Reasoning ⬇️

Very straightforward (never is) bet-builder here that’s statistically as solid as you can get while the match should be played to suit it.

Expect England to dominate from the start here where we should see Andorra camped in there box, these ultra low blocks usually mean less tackles and offsides.

England have had under 3.5 offsides in 36 out of there last 37 competitive games. Meanwhile Andorra opposition have went under 3.5 offsides in 26 out of last 27 competitive games. With the low block as already mentioned and how passive I assume England will be here then I don’t see many occasions where we get a defence splitting pass in behind which helps us.

Tackles are of a similar nature, the Andorran bus parked up in the 18 yard box shouldn’t lead to many duels and given the standard of this English team then they won’t get drawn into dribbling the ball into trouble. Moldova has went under 15.5 tackles in 30 of their last 33 competitive games, only going over this line against Moldova(154th), Latvia (137th) and San Marino (210th). As the fifa rankings show, given the major gulf in class here should see them not engaging in tackling opponents but more concerned with team shape as they look to keep the score down.

Lastly onto the England throws. Andorra concede and absurd amount of throws away from home with 39 out of the last 40 competitive games having there opponents go over this line while England have went over 13.5 throws in 19 out of last 20 home games.

On the corners add on if needed (likely) the last time England went over this line was 9th of October 2014, over 10 years ago. While Andorra opponents have went under this line in 79 out of the last 80 competitive matches.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

August P/L ⬇️

Bets : 86 ✍️
Profit : 5.84u 💰
ROI : 8.64% 📈

Summary ⬇️

Always good to see a month ending in profit when going through a real poor run of variance, long term will always come out in profit as the P/L shows so we have just got to stick to the staking plan.

With the poor liquidity on markets atm across Bet365/flutter odds slashing in minutes then I’ve had to adapt minimum odds etc which has clearly cost us a few more units but adapting is what it’s all about to provide a fully transparent service to subscribers.

Will be announcing some exciting news over the next few weeks so keep an eye out on the page 👀 🔜

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Main bet a winner here ✅

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

2 bets that members have took for tonights premier league clash, dropped within 10 minutes but within the min odds suggested so tracked as in the screenshots 👍

Will try to get more free bets out going forward. Possibly opening a few spaces next week so the link to the waiting list is below 👇

https://t.co/wLeFSoAmct

Both bets are from bet365

1.5u @ 2.0 (min 1.8) - Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks, Under 8.5 Chelsea shots on target and over 9.5 West Ham frees.

0.25u @ 5.5 (min 4.5) - Over 13.5 West Ham free kicks, Bowen 2 shots and JWP 1+ tackle.

Reasoning ⬇️

Basic solid stats based bet-builder here, nothing fancy here looking to build some momentum here with these stat based BBs, key reasonings for each angle in the main bet.

Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks 👇

Probably a slight market over- reaction to West Hams opening day defeat at stadium of light here. West Ham arnt a pretty watch under Graham potter, games are rarely hectic and he sets them up conservative from the off.

West Ham average 7.11 goal kicks at home while going under this line in 8 out of 9 home games while potter has been in charge, away from home is quite similar averaging 8.0 goal kicks while going under this line in 10 out of 11 away games thus meaning it’s won in 18 out of 20 total games under potter.

Chelsea are heavily possession based under maresca resulting in home opposition averaging 7.47 goal kicks throughout all 19 away games in the premier league last season with the line winning in 16 out of 19 away games. I do think Chelsea are too much for West Ham tonight but feel the line is just a few GKs too high.

West Ham frees 👇

I think there’s potential in some higher lines here tonight, last season Chelsea opponents averaged 13.05 frees per game in the premier league. With Oliver at the whistle tonight we are getting the 2nd highest ref for fouls that has reffed 20+ games in the premier league last season. An impressive 23.15 fouls per game which only Rob Jones could do better.

Chelsea opponents have had over 9.5 frees in 34 out of 38 premier league games last season, West Ham have had over 9.5 free kicks in 14 out of 19 premier league games under potter with this line landing in all of last 11 h2h, with West Hams horrific performance vs Sunderland I’m expecting a big reaction tonight at home to fellow Londoners here, with the crowd on there side then we could get get plenty of fouls in a game here that could be the catalyst in how West Hams season will fair.

Chelsea under 8.5 shots on target 👇

In West Hams 20 competitive games under potter, only 1 team has hit over 8.5 shots on target which was Brighton hitting 16 shots with 9 on target, I can’t see Chelsea with this sort of efficiency tonight and if they do I hold my hands up fair play.

Chelsea last season hit under 8.5 SOTs in 18 out of 19 away games. With Marescas style of play being possession based if they were to take a lead then the game could die a death as a spectacle which would suit us more for our unders angles here.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

2 bets that members have took for tonights premier league clash, dropped within 10 minutes but within the min odds suggested so tracked as in the screenshots 👍

Will try to get more free bets out going forward. Possibly opening a few spaces next week so the link to the waiting list is below 👇

https://t.co/wLeFSoAmct

Both bets are from bet365

1.5u @ 2.0 (min 1.8) - Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks, Under 8.5 Chelsea shots on target and over 9.5 West Ham frees.

0.25u @ 5.5 (min 4.5) - Over 13.5 West Ham free kicks, Bowen 2 shots and JWP 1+ tackle.

Reasoning ⬇️

Basic solid stats based bet-builder here, nothing fancy here looking to build some momentum here with these stat based BBs, key reasonings for each angle in the main bet.

Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks 👇

Probably a slight market over- reaction to West Hams opening day defeat at stadium of light here. West Ham arnt a pretty watch under Graham potter, games are rarely hectic and he sets them up conservative from the off.

West Ham average 7.11 goal kicks at home while going under this line in 8 out of 9 home games while potter has been in charge, away from home is quite similar averaging 8.0 goal kicks while going under this line in 10 out of 11 away games thus meaning it’s won in 18 out of 20 total games under potter.

Chelsea are heavily possession based under maresca resulting in home opposition averaging 7.47 goal kicks throughout all 19 away games in the premier league last season with the line winning in 16 out of 19 away games. I do think Chelsea are too much for West Ham tonight but feel the line is just a few GKs too high.

West Ham frees 👇

I think there’s potential in some higher lines here tonight, last season Chelsea opponents averaged 13.05 frees per game in the premier league. With Oliver at the whistle tonight we are getting the 2nd highest ref for fouls that has reffed 20+ games in the premier league last season. An impressive 23.15 fouls per game which only Rob Jones could do better.

Chelsea opponents have had over 9.5 frees in 34 out of 38 premier league games last season, West Ham have had over 9.5 free kicks in 14 out of 19 premier league games under potter with this line landing in all of last 11 h2h, with West Hams horrific performance vs Sunderland I’m expecting a big reaction tonight at home to fellow Londoners here, with the crowd on there side then we could get get plenty of fouls in a game here that could be the catalyst in how West Hams season will fair.

Chelsea under 8.5 shots on target 👇

In West Hams 20 competitive games under potter, only 1 team has hit over 8.5 shots on target which was Brighton hitting 16 shots with 9 on target, I can’t see Chelsea with this sort of efficiency tonight and if they do I hold my hands up fair play.

Chelsea last season hit under 8.5 SOTs in 18 out of 19 away games. With Marescas style of play being possession based if they were to take a lead then the game could die a death as a spectacle which would suit us more for our unders angles here.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

I have attached a waiting list/free bets telegram channel below just for when spaces become available in the VIP channel.

Will try my best to give a fair share of free bets but full priority will be on vip members for the foreseeable future.

Thanks all for the support so far it’s very much appreciated and not took for granted ❤️🫡

https://t.co/wLeFSoAmct

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

Spaces have quickly filled, didn’t expect them to go that fast ❤️

I’ll be sorting everyone out that’s paid and not in the group over the next few hours, just getting caught up on admin stuff here 👍

I’ll release more spots throughout the week 🫡

Anyone with issues and can’t DM me, reply underneath here and I’ll reach out to you 👇

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

I have attached the link below for my premium channel, DM me if there is any issues and I’ll try my best to get you sorted ASAP🙏

Thanks for all the support and well wishes, its very much appreciated ❤️

https://t.co/XSyLCxDp30

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@Isma_Fernandez1 @mymembersio Will be through the @mymembersio website mate, range of payment options on there that should get you sorted 🫡 DM me later if you have any issues and I’ll get you sorted 👍

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

I will be opening spaces into my premium channel this evening at 6pm GMT through the @mymembersio website.

A few reasons on why the channel might be for you before joining :

- In-depth reasoning on every tip

- All tips posted within 24 hours of kick off with the large majority tipped upon lineups released

- Optimising betting accounts : my careful and strategic approach to putting out tips prioritising subscribers account health.

- A trusted tipster with 24 out of 27 months profit on all free tracked tips on Twitter/X. With the goalposts shifting in many ways throughout the years still finding ways to maintain solid profit.

- Insight into angles that might not have been strong enough to tip officially but could be included in your own long-shot bet-builders.

- Monthly giveaways.

I’ll still try my best to give free bets on X but ultimately will be prioritising the premium group going forward 🤝

Screenshot 1 is last 3 months P/L.

Screenshot 2 is all time stats P/L.

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@MaccasValueBets @mymembersio Thanks Macca, appreciated 🫡

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@StatsHubCom @mymembersio Thanks very much 🫡

[ShaunC bets @scbets98]

@matthew_oregan @mymembersio Thanks mate, very much appreciated ❤️