SCC_trader

Macro trading of global markets. Former investment banker, hedge fund CIO. The ideas are mine, form your own.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history

SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.

Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:

SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.

At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.

30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.

But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.

The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that kills the scarcity is what kills the price.

Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.

The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.

Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:

The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.

In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.

Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.

Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.

Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.

All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.

This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?

Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.

First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.

When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.

And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.

Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.

Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.

I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.

Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it.

SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.

This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Time to move on. $MSTR is now trading at a substantial MNAV discount. Since 11/20/24 I've been posting daily that the company is destined for this future and to sell MSTR and replace with BTC or IBIT

MSTR is down 82% while BTC is only down 36%.

Muting Saylor and Strategy And MSTR and STRC and anyone who comments with anything other than "Thanks Andy" like comments.

It's been a fun ride but it's over and boring today. Hopefully I can avoid posting about this silly company forever more

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

In just 27 minutes, the Nasdaq 100 just fell -1,000 points and the S&P 500 erased -$1 TRILLION without any major headlines.

The Nasdaq opened +1% higher then fell -3% between 9:30 AM and 9:57 AM ET.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

This is what happens when you build a $MSTR Ponzi on a Ponzi.

$BTC is just beginning its 2nd and largest leg down which doesn't bottom until October 2026.

It's unclear how Michael Saylor survives because once Bitcoin hits $25,000 it's all over for him.

[Master WU @MasterPandaWu]

Third Blood < 7250.
The Second Blood dropped to 7323, lower than my 7330 target--that series deemed complete.
Now, it is the brutal sequel--THE THIRD.
It takes much longer for the rebalance under DMA-50; Once it is complete, the next move would be fast, with a large gap-down.

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly.

What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room?

Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear.

That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading.

Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit.

That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global.

Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%.

Same move the credit funds are already making.

These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid.

So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small.

This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity.

And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets.

Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates.

Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

[42 Macro 🇺🇸 @42Macro]

Will the Fed Tighten Soon So It Can Ease Even More Later?

@DariusDale42 joined @FerroTV, @lisaabramowicz1, and @annmarie to discuss why the Fed may tighten financial conditions in the near term to create scope for much easier policy later, and why any meaningful pullback in risk assets should be viewed as a buying opportunity within the 42 Macro Paradigm C bull market.

[Ron Shamgar @RonShamgar]

All true but I wonder if the shorts cover now? It’s 14% shorted

(No position)

[Noah @antibearthesis]

A 24-year-old ex-OpenAI researcher just turned $225M into over $13.67B in under 2 years.

And his portfolio just revealed something even more extreme than his returns.

Leopold Aschenbrenner was fired from OpenAI in April 2024.

After that, he wrote a 165-page thesis predicting AGI by ~2027.

Then he launched a fund and did something unusual:

He fully positioned around that thesis.

He initially avoided the obvious AI winners:

Zero $NVDA
Zero $MSFT
Zero $GOOGL
Zero $AMZN

Instead, he targeted what AI physically runs on.

His early “AI infrastructure” longs included:
• Bloom Energy $BE
• Lumentum $LITE
• SanDisk $SNDK
• CoreWeave $CRWV
• Iris Energy $IREN

The thesis was simple:

AI isn’t just software.

It’s constrained by:
• power
• bandwidth
• storage
• compute infrastructure

And those bottlenecks were massively mispriced.

The results were explosive:
• Bloom Energy: +1,422%
• Lumentum: +1,331%
• SanDisk: +3,130%
• IREN: +583%
• CoreWeave: +166%

This is what turned his initial $225M into ~ $5.5B by end of Q4 2025.

Fast forward to his latest SEC filing (Q1 2026):

His disclosed exposure has surged to $13.67B equivalent across 42 positions.

A near 3x jump in a single quarter.

But the structure of the portfolio changed dramatically.

He didn’t just stay long AI infrastructure.

He built a two-sided portfolio;

Massive bearish positioning on semiconductors (puts totaling ~$7.46B):
• $SMH ETF PUT: $2.04B
• $NVDA PUT: $1.57B
• $AVGO PUT: $1.01B
• $AMD PUT: $969M
• $MU PUT: $583M
• $TSM PUT: $535M
• $ASML PUT: $494M
• $ORCL PUT: $1.07B
• $INTC PUT: $159M

At the same time, he STILL holds long exposure to the AI infrastructure stack:
• $BE : $878M
• $SNDK: $724M
• $CRWV: $556M
• $IREN: $401M
• $CORZ: $389M
• $APLD: $320M
• $RIOT: $142M
• $CLSK: $104M
• $SEI: $62M
• $TE: $43M
• $KEEL: $38M
• $BTDR: $29M
• $PSIX: $26M
• $WYFI: $20M
• $BW: $19M
• $SHAZ: $18M
• $PUMP: $13M
• $HIVE.NE: $6M

He also added CALL OPTIONS on select names:
• $MU CALL: $422M
• $SNDK CALL: $388M
• $TSM CALL: $354M
• $CRWV CALL: $140M
• $BE CALL: $55M

So the positioning is not a simple “AI is over” trade.

It’s more specific:

He still believes AI infrastructure expands aggressively…

…but thinks semiconductor leaders may have pulled forward too much optimism.

In other words:

He is long the physical buildout of AI
and short the market’s most crowded AI expectations

at the same time.

From $225M → $5.5B → $13.67B…

The real signal isn’t just performance.

It’s that his view of AI has evolved from:

“AI wins”

to

“the winners of AI may not be who the market thinks.”

Are you going to ignore him again?

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

the engineer who built Claude Code just dropped a 28-minute video on how to write prompts that actually work

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what he shows in the first 10 minutes

CLAUDE.md files, memory shortcuts, parallel sessions, prompting patterns

all in one video and completely free

works whether you're a developer, a beginner, or someone who's been using Claude for months

based on this, I put together 18 things you can copy and use in Claude today

full guide in the article below

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 BREAKING UPDATE: President Trump has been SAFELY EVACUATED from the White House Correspondents Dinner, per sources

You can hear shots ring out in this video

A shooter opened fire in the LOBBY -- the shooter is DEAD

This is absolutely INSANE

LEFTIST VIOLENCE MUST END!

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

Elon was played. These elections are gonna be awesome for misinformation.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

This is nuts

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@PeterLBrandt Only traded the cash and futures markets for four decades but old enough to know that market manipulation and insider trading are illegal. Just not sure that the exchange or government officials are going to chase it down anymore.

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@HayekAndKeynes To fly planes

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@PeteWargent Mount Cremorne

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@lady_valor_07 1978

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@HalimA60962 Ai

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@FinanceLancelot In 2024 Individual income taxes accounted for $2.43 trillion, or roughly half of all federal revenue, while corporate income taxes brought in $529.9 billion. U.S. tariff revenue increased significantly, reaching approximately $264 billion in calendar year 2025. I see a gap.

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@PeteWargent As the AUD TWI has appreciated by 8% over the past year is this being factored in? In days gone by this move would take some of the tightening burden from the rates market.

[SCC_trader @scctrader]

@Acyn Pull your money from this guy. He’s a pretty shallow thinker.