Mark Schaefer

Portfolio Manager | 30+ Years
Barclays | ABN AMRO | Eagle | Centiva
FX • Crypto • Futures
Weekly Brief ↓

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

Leading up to BOJ selloff, I mapped out the exact USD/JPY playbook in advance.

Weak shorts were front-running BOJ intervention at 160.00... those get squeezed then the BOJ steps in.

Playbook was all mapped in advance and then real time.

Full breakdown in the free weekly letter → https://t.co/TyfMRwSOeN

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

BTC — Sub 50k Coming?

61.8% Fib has been tested twice — Feb and June 5th low at 59,101. Both times it held. Rally stalled just shy of the 38.2% Fib at 68,156.

Momentum approaching overbought while price fades.
68,156 is the level.

If the June 5th low gives way — 50k is next.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EUR/USD — back to zero

May 4th close: 1.1608. Today: 1.1608. Eleven days, 2.3% of movement, right back where we started.

Rally stalled at the 38.2% Fib. Hasn't closed above the 20dma since mid-April. Big resistance cluster at 1.1670/80 if it gets there.

Support at 1.1540/50 then 1.1500.

No bias here until something breaks.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EUR/USD volatility is the most compressed it's been since January.

Last time this happened — 4% rally in under 2 weeks.

Get these setups in real time: → Private feed: https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

Free weekly newsletter: https://t.co/RJzMGlRpqV

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EURUSD still in consolidation mode.

Looks to be setting up for a reversal as momentum is moving back towards overbought.

Can't see anything upcoming that will push EUR outside it's established range.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EUR/USD has been range-bound since the beginning of April without a breakout catalyst.

Mean reversion model kicking in.

Shared real time at-
https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

Last week I flagged the exact USD/JPY setup — squeeze through 160, then intervention.

Played out to the pip.

Live analysis in the private feed and weekly newsletter.
https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

154 pips in under 24 hours.

EUR/USD and GBP — both flagged in real time to the Meridian Compass private feed. Both delivered.

The same analysis I provide to hedge funds — daily — now available to retail traders.

https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

BTC double top + bearish engulfing at the 50% Fib (78,977). Also printed a bearish divergence.

Watching 74,500 next.

Full analysis + real-time levels in the private feed → https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

@waltervannelli EUR/USD rejected the 61.8% with a bearish engulfing and overbought momentum last week. Looking for further weakness near term Watching 1.1682 / 1.1630 / 1.1578 on the downside.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

USD/JPY pushed above the upper Bollinger Band and failed, printing a bearish reversal bar on the 4-hour yesterday.

Momentum has started to turn lower from overbought — looks vulnerable to a move back toward 158.30.

Real-time breakdown here
https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EUR/USD rejected the 61.8% with a bearish engulfing and overbought momentum last week.

Looking for further weakness near term

Watching 1.1682 / 1.1630 / 1.1578 on the downside.

Full breakdown ↓
https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

The market isn’t reacting to Iran the way it “should.”

USD strength failed to extend, and price action is becoming more two-way.

That’s what a positioning-driven market looks like — not a conviction-driven one.

Full breakdown in today’s weekly brief.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

For weeks, the market has been fading USD on the assumption that Iran would move toward resolution.

That shift wasn’t headline-driven — it built gradually through positioning.

Now we’ve had another escalation, and USD still isn’t responding cleanly.

That tells you this is more about positioning than conviction.

The real question now: does the market keep fading these moves… or does that behavior finally break?

I’ll break this down in tomorrow’s note.
https://t.co/TyfMRwSgpf

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

1.1825 the next key level in EURUSD. Its the 61.8% Fib of the recent high to low move. We are seeing position adjustment since the USD became disconnected from Oil trade.

Full breakdown in yesterday's weekly brief:
https://t.co/RJzMGlRpqV

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

+90 pips!

Full breakdown real time

https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

Seeing reversals on the H4 in EUR, AUD and NZD. Watch for potential pull back.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

+90 pips!

Flagged bearish reversals on EUR, AUD and NZD earlier today on the 4hr charts.

EUR down 50 pips. AUD and NZD both down 20+.

Ceasefire already showing cracks. USD bid into the close.

This is what real-time structure analysis looks like.

https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

Seeing reversals on the H4 in EUR, AUD and NZD. Watch for potential pull back.

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EURUSD cleared the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci. This should now act as support and open the door 1.1744 the 50% Fib and then 1.1823 the 61.8% Fib

[Mark Schaefer @schaef45809]

EUR/USD bouncing.

1.1552 first level, 1.1670 major confluence pivot.

If USD unwind starts this could move fast.

I’m tracking this in real time in the Meridian Compass feed.

https://t.co/txuZ4aqF5u