Zachary Schultz

NFL Fan. Fantasy Football Fan. Golf Fan.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

Thus, the ultimate goal is to win back to back titles. Your odds increase greatly if you can get a bye. So I'm trying to build a squad with enough elite talent and depth to earn a bye two straight seasons.

[Corey Blayne @corey_blayne]

Since 82-0 is popular, I got to thinking, how about an NFL simulator?

Introducing 17-0. Enjoy, and send suggestions for improvements!!

https://t.co/opbc5fIkK5

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@RemoteNavigator What are your thoughts on linear vs logarithmic charts?

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@PoolGenius I enjoy the product but the ownership projections need some work on the "Players and Majors" Contest. Were way way off on Morikawa at Players and are way too low on Rahm here.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@adamlevitan Will you have projected ownership for FFPC contests?

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

An underrated part of the Chiefs offensive improvement has been Andy Reids willingness to go for it on 4th down this year. Put 10 additional points on the board tonight because of 4th down decisions.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

I hope to wake up tomorrow to news the Chiefs have traded for Breece Hall. It'd be like Thanos getting the last infinity stone.

[Clay Travis @ClayTravis]

California Democrat governor candidate says gender neutral 2028 Olympics in LA makes sense, suggests women’s sprinters may be able to beat men’s sprinters. Watch all of this from @piersmorgan. These Dems are batshit insane:

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 6 Observations

- Kansas City Chiefs: high end quarterback play and coaching is the best foundation for success in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is positioned for his best season in years and he’s about to get back Rashee Rice.

- The Chiefs pass rush played it’s best football of the night, late. Overall, very strong effort against one of the league’s most talented offenses.

- After opening day I still had concerns about the Lions changes at coordinator, but this team beat the full throttle Ravens in Baltimore and gave a much more desperate Kansas City team a very contested game for 50 minutes. The Lions could have played better in some areas, but Jared Goff played another highly efficient game (until late when the pass rush became impactful) and Detroit is in a very good position to contend again in the NFC.

- That said next Monday against Tampa, I’d expect to see Detroit try to stretch the field a little more.

- I have a lot of notes from last Thursday Night’s Giants vs. Eagles clash, because that was an important game to evaluate on multiple fronts.

- Jaxson Dart played a very, very good game in a very big spot. You wouldn’t think it in the box score, but that outing from Dart impressed me more than any game Daniel Jones played as a Giant. Dart was accurate throughout the contest (something he was more uneven with in his first two starts) and he made a handful of very high difficulty, nuanced throws including two accurate throws where he took a hit on the chops. He had some heady runs, made good decisions, overall, genuinely impressive stuff.

- To use a hockey parallel, the second star of this game was the Giants OL as this was the best game they’ve played in years, but I want to give that two caveats. The first is Philly was down their top two disrupters in Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter (who would be the major issue for the Giants) and further, as my guy @DrakeFantasy said in the wake of that game, it’s important to understand that Philly’s defense is down significant talent from their Super Bowl team last year, and really over the last few years. So while this was still a very good performance from a rookie quarterback in a national spotlight, especially given Dart’s weak group of pass catchers, I don’t quite treat it as “the Giants beat the Eagles” because while they did, a Thursday night game, while Philly is down many starters from last year means the talent gap was much closer in this contest than it’s been in years on that side of the ball. So, still a very good performance, genuinely encouraging, but I wouldn’t treat it as Dart shredded an elite defense on Thursday.

- I’ll also say this game was a perfect example of why I value line play so much but don’t really care about the pressure stat, because it is like hits in baseball, as it lacks a ton of important context. Most of the pressures from the Philly side in this game were low value pressures. As an example, if a 3 technique (defensive tackle) beats a guard on their outside shoulder with a swim move and gains penetration early, that will be logged as a pressure and it will make the quarterback move, but unless that’s stacked with complimentary pressure from someone else, that pressure from the 3 technique is easily managed and less valuable than, say, an A gap blitzer beating the center, getting immediate penetration and then being able to pursue the quarterback. That A gap pressure is high value and changes the play, the other has a minor impact on its own, yet they are both logged as a pressure where, to use the hits parallel, one is a single and the other is a homer. Dart played well against the blitz and like I said above, he made two great throws while taking contact on the chops, but most of the pressure he faced was low value pressure and good chance his comfort level played a major role in his output.

- Back to giving Dart credit, one thing I noticed early in this contest is that Dart had better timing with Humphries than he’s had with most of his pass catchers, and a buddy of mine reminded me Dart played with Humphries more in preseason. That is encouraging for Dart’s future prospects, as his accuracy with the starters has a clear path to becoming more consistent.

- Ultimately, I’ve mentioned three names when it comes to Dart: Chrisitan Ponder (raw skill set), Derek Carr, Jordan Love as Dart’s range as I see it. He’s a better runner than Love or Carr (even though Dart and Carr’s combine were similar) and he’s more heady than Ponder, but this game showed that the higher end of that range is very much on the table.

- Now, I’d also say if Jalen Hurts plays well the Eagles still win this game. He missed a wide open DeVonta Smith on what would have been a 90+ yard score, and on the interception he threw late, AJ Brown was there for a score, in a one-on-one spot, on a crosser. Now I don’t put a ton of emphasis on “he should have made this read” analysis, because playing quarterback in the NFL is about executing under duress in very short periods of time, but just those two plays change that game. It’s the same when someone misses a throw, because all these guys miss throws when you watch all the games. That said, those were two very high leverage, very makeable throws.

- Hurts in general, I’ve said this for years, is the most unique quarterback evaluation of my lifetime. I hated him at Alabama. He looked like an entirely different guy at Oklahoma where many killed the Eagles for taking him in the second round, I totally got it. He’s had one MVP caliber season and two of his best games as a pro came in Super Bowls. He’s also had the best supporting cast in the league for years and he’s very inconsistent, where if he played at a high level more often, the Eagles would be nearly impossible to stop. So ultimately, Hurts has a lot of talent, where he can play with anyone when he’s on (just like Carr could and Love can) but Hurts isn’t as consistent as those upper echelon guys.

- To close with the Giants, I think the culture change stuff is being blown out of proportion. Brian Daboll gives Jaxson Dart bedroom eyes because given how well Jones is playing in Indianapolis, Daboll knows Dart playing well is Daboll’s only shot of being a head coach in the NFL after this season. Dart certainly seems charismatic, but did that charisma make Hurts miss those throws or compel Brian Burns to single handedly end a pair of drives? Is Dart’s personality making Cam Skattebo run like the fate of the world hangs on how much effort he expends? Lastly, and perhaps most hilarious, I hate to break it to everyone, but MetLife stadium was half filled with Eagles fans on Thursday night. The Dart/ Skattebo combination certainly makes the Giants more interesting, and I’m definitely a culture matters guy, but I’d still be careful overvaluing that component with this team right now. If anything, I could see Skattebo’s style being the most likely new variable to have an impact on current team culture (if they continue to be scrappy and win games, the culture thing could definitely be a factor, but that defense still played bad enough to give up 30+ points on Thursday despite the talent they have.)

- Last thought on that game, is Saquon Barkley interesting enough to have a documentary?

- Denver’s defense gave up less than 100 total yards while accumulating nine sacks, with eight different players in on that action. I’m a regression bettor, so I was expecting a sleepy game from the offense coming off their win in Philly, paired with this trip to Europe, but this defense has been excellent over the last three weeks.

- Once again, the Jets are in no man’s land as an organization now coming off one of the most inept offensive performances in recent memory. On the bright side, this was their defense’s best game of the season, and they have two very winnable games on deck against the Panthers and Bengals.

- Aaron Rodgers Steelers are now 4-1 with a Thursday night date with the Bengals on deck. Rodgers is no longer his perennial MVP contender self, but as I’ve said he was better than most gave him credit for last year and he’s been an obvious value add for the Steelers this season, who have the most decisive division lead in the league currently.

- Perhaps more importantly, Pittsburgh’s defense took care of business against a bad opponent, putting up six total sacks and 16 QB hits. CB Jalen Ramsey had two sacks, two tackles for a loss and two quarterback hits in one of the most outlier lines for a corner you’ll ever see. Ultimately the Steelers’ clearest path to success is to play their traditional stout defense, while Rodgers plays clean football while still having the capacity to win a few games late when necessary, like he did on opening day with the Jets.

- I do not overreact to early games from rookie quarterbacks, but I’ve never seen it in Dillon Gabriel. Cleveland is one of the few organizations in the league where the calls for Shedeur Sanders are not complete insanity and I would imagine he’ll see the field sometime this season.

- Cleveland should see what they can get for David Njoku, given the rise of Harold Fannin and the unfortunate reality that their season is over despite their high-end defense.

- Drake Maye came off a big boy game against a contender last Sunday night in Buffalo, and followed it up in the way high-end quarterbacks do: he carried his team to a victory over a talent-poor Saints team. Plain and simple, I’d call this the best two-game stretch of Maye’s young career.

- Despite the loss I continue to be impressed by Kellen Moore, as the Saints have now been a tough out in five of their first six games where I’d continue to frame them as an overachieving team, similar to how I felt about Dan Campbell’s Lions in his first season as Detroit honcho.

- Baltimore’s defense played up for the first time this season, and Derrick Henry roughly did what I expected, which collectively should have been enough to give the Rams a real scare (this game was tied at 3 at halftime) but Baltimore got absolutely nothing out of their passing game. Cooper Rush was benched for Tyler Huntley, where both players did next to nothing.

- The Rams were my preseason pick to win the NFC, and right now Detroit is the only NFC team that gives me any pause on that stance, but this was Matthew Stafford’s most uneven game of the year, and LA is lucky they didn’t lose this matchup.

- On the surface, Miami took the Chargers to the wire, where the Dolphins took back the lead late in the fourth quarter, but I’d frame it as Miami (with a good chunk of that on Tua) did a lot to give this game away. Miami heads to Cleveland next week, but their schedule from there: at Atl, vs. Bal (TNF), vs. Buf, Vs. Wash (Europe) is a stretch where things could genuinely unravel before their Week 12 bye.

- Regardless, I’m not sure what the Dolphins do long term, because this looks like a reset roster with a highly paid veteran quarterback that has not been very good this season.

- The Chargers have been ravaged by injuries, but strong quarterback play and coaching is what I’d pin this win on. This game was a prime example of why those two areas are the most important to winning. Also, LAC got 124 rushing yards out of Kimani Vidal despite their OL injuries. It was against a very weak opponent, granted, but still impressive given the state of their RB room and OL.

- Two vantage points on the Colts/ Cardinals. I said in my Saturday “Here’s What I’m Looking at” post that I could see Jacoby Brisset being good for this passing offense for just this one week, so him playing well didn’t surprise me. That said, I will spend all year waiting for the Colts to turn into a pumpkin, and what I can tell you is I had them in several survivor entries and this game was not even mildly fun to watch.

- I view Shane Steichen as a quality coach that would be an upgrade for a lot of teams, but I do not believe in Daniel Jones and I’ve been very critical of him his whole career. His first three games this season, shocked me. The last three have reminded me a lot of his play during his single playoff season with the Giants, where he was a game manager. That’s still a significant improvement against the baseline of his career, and I’d still call this the best six-game stretch of his career, but right now I’m viewing this through the lens that he’s solid (which again, is still a leap from where he was).

- Jacoby Brisset had 320 passing yards to the team’s cumulative 88 on the ground, and he orchestrated a 10 play, 78-yard drive where Arizona got inside the 10 to potentially take the lead near the end of the game, and that drive then stalled.

- I did not watch enough of Raiders/ Titans to have a real opinion, but the Titans offensive line allowed a number of dead on arrival pressures and apart from that, Cam Ward made several genuinely dreadful plays.

- Similarly, I did not see enough of Jags/ Seahawks to have a real opinion of that game, but Seattle’s pass rush impresses on a regular basis.

- I said on Saturday that I love a good revenge game narrative, but I don’t think Rico Dowdle is really in a revenge spot. Regardless, that man ran for 183 yards and added 56 through the air against his former team.

- The Panthers are in a difficult spot with Bryce Young long term, especially given the limitations of their roster. To this point Young does not look like a quarterback that’s going to lead a perennial playoff factor with some shot to contend for titles. He’s also shown enough where if you move on from him, pretty good chance you end up with a downgrade.

- Dak Prescott once again played very well, and as someone that liked the George Pickens trade, however that ends up from here that was a win. But this team can’t generate pressure and they gave up 199 rushing yards to the Panthers.

- Green Bay’s offense allowed Cincinnati to hang around into the second half, where the Bengals made this at least mildly uncomfortable for those in survivor pools.

- When I think of who Jordan Love is, he’s capable of spectacular performances where for one Sunday afternoon, he looks like an MVP contender, but he has enough middling games like this where he’s, for me, definitely behind guys like Dak Prescott still.

- Overall, the Packers won this game, but they showed very little against what is a weak Bengals roster led by a 40 year old quarterback that joined the team a few days ago.

- As expected, Joe Flacco made Cincinnati more live despite joining the team this week. Bengals tight ends saw 11 collective targets.

- Mac Jones had two turnovers, including the early pick that basically handed the Bucs their first score, but he also did a pretty good job of keeping this offense fairly competitive given how many starters were out.

- Fred Warner now has a season ending injury which means SF will be without their two best defenders through the rest of the year.

- Baker Mayfield has been very good all year, and today, given Tampa’s collective injuries, he did most of his work Sunday with reserve pass catchers.

I will try to do this early each week, but to be clear I am doing this for the purpose of growing my following. That means engagement is my requirement so I reach new eyes, likes, comments, retweets, and bookmarks are all appreciated.

You can follow me
@RyanReynoldsNFL

[SharpClarke 🔪 @SharpClarkeNFL]

It’s cathartic and feels nice to shit on someone while they are down, especially when that person is obnoxious.

But none of the most successful and happy people I know spend a second focusing on the failures of others, and I don’t believe that’s a coincidence.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@sportfoliokings How does one access the model?

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 3 Observations

- I’m glad Caleb Williams got to play that game in front of a national audience, because those handful of “wow” plays he had exist virtually every week.

- A lot of individuals paid to cover the NFL are pointing out Caleb Williams arm strength after Sunday, which makes me wonder if they’ve ever seen him play before.

- If Williams continues to improve his play in structure/ gets more consistently accurate, his ceiling outcome (perennial MVP contender) is still very much on the table.

- This was the first game where Ben Johnson’s offense felt like it did when he was in Detroit from a flow and purpose perspective.

- That said, the 2025 Dallas Cowboys are one of the league’s elite shootout partners, so while Williams and Johnson’s Bears were impressive, don’t overreact to one game.

- Rome Odunze is having an excellent year, but you could tack on another ~75 yards and a touchdown if you took away his drops on the season.

- The Bears pass rush and secondary played much, much better against Dallas than they did against Detroit.

- Coming up for the Bears: at LV, Bye, at Wash, vs NO, at Bal, at Cin, vs NYG.

- I don’t want to overstate this, but how good Javonte Williams looks has been one of the bigger surprises for me this season (I’ve never been a big fan and I thought he was done, but he’s been very solid this year). How well Daniel Jones has played has been the biggest.

- The Colts offensive line is the current MVP of the season to date, as Jonathan Taylor is smashing and Jones has played three clean games in a row.

- Shane Steichen is the current runaway Coach of the Year, which isn’t helping Brian Daboll’s independently tenuous job security.

- Jones has always had some intriguing physical tools, and one of his strengths in college was being able to execute a smart, opponent specific game plan. Where he’s historically struggled is in pressure management (he’s faced very little due to OL play and play calling this year) and playing out of structure (one of the worst out of structure passers I’ve ever seen given how athletic he is). Right now, Steichen has done a very good job leaning into what Jones does well, making things easy for him and Jones has made more plays (down field throws, turning dead pressure management plays into positives) than he has before in his career, because he’s the most comfortable he’s ever been currently.

- The Colts head to the Rams next week, where Jones will face a high-quality pass rush, on the road, for the first time this season. Indianapolis could not have hoped for more from Jones through the first three games, as he’s already had three of the ten best games of his career in Indianapolis, but how he plays against the Rams, especially if it’s from a deficit, will give us a good idea of how sustainable all this is.

- On the other side of the coaching spectrum, Cam Ward has definitely shown flashes of top 10 QB in the league potential, but Brian Callahan is starting to look like this year’s Matt Eberflus, meaning he’s in a really strong Coach of the Year position yet creates zero margin for his young team.

- When you look at the Vikings beating the Bengals 48-10, Minnesota scored twice on defense and forced five turnovers. Carson Wentz was rock solid, but Brian Flores’ defense drove this outcome.

- Speaking of turnovers, the Patriots coughed up five against the Steelers, including two a piece from Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson.

- The Steelers pass rush got well against New England, with five sacks and eight QB hits.

- Through three weeks, New England has the worst offensive line and skill group combination in the league.

- In the survivor pool column I write for Establish the Run, I have promoted caution in targeting the Browns until we see if their defense returns to their 2023 form. They were a tough out against the Bengals on opening day, and they largely drove this upset win against Green Bay. Even their game against the Ravens in Week 2, the defense was solid for most of the game until the levy broke late (it seemed like the Browns D was on the field all day).

- Browns vs. Packers was one of several games where a blocked kick had a major impact on the outcome of the game.

- Through the first three weeks of the season, Quinshon Jenkins (Browns) and Cam Skattebo (Giants) have been the most impressive rookie running backs.

- Skattebo’s contact balance has been absurd.

- Brian Burns has been electric so far this season (you could argue he’s one of the more underrated players in the league) and I’d frame this as the best three-game stretch of Kayvon Thibodeaux’s young career.

- Russell Wilson made a handful of genuinely terrible decisions in this contest, but an interesting wrinkle here is that when the Giants were down two scores very late, where a comeback would have been a near miracle, they marched out Wilson instead of Jaxson Dart. That tells me this coaching staff, who couldn’t be in more danger of losing their jobs, doesn’t believe Jaxson Dart is ready, because if he came out and engineered a scoring drive they would have been just about forced to start him this upcoming week. Further, Dart playing well is the only way this regime returns next season, at this point. Clearly, they don’t view Dart as ready.

- A perspective I was granted during my time working with former Eagles president Joe Banner is to keep in mind that we do not get to see these guys in practice, where the coaches do, which means in situations like this we are building our stances off very incomplete information.

- Kansas City bracketed Malik Nabers throughout the game, as any team should, but what was alarming from the Giants end is they did not use motion to try and manufacture a few touches for their centerpiece on offense. A pretty bad oversight.

- When you’re evaluating quarterbacks, remember how many bad decisions and missed layups Patrick Mahomes had on Sunday night, and keep that in mind when you have the urge to overreact to an uneven game from a young quarterback. All these guys miss layups, on a pretty regular basis.

- As I suggested in my Saturday “Here’s what I’m looking at” slate preview, the Falcons did in fact have a let down game in Carolina. That wasn’t a surprise, but a 30-0 defeat to Carolina certainly was.

- Michael Penix has yet to truly impress me in a game to this point, he’s only hit moments where I think he could be “fine” long term, but this game, against this opponent, was genuinely concerning.

- When I have watched each of the Chargers three games, I see a team that is being carried by Justin Herbert, I don’t have a ton of enthusiasm about anything else I’ve seen from Los Angeles (the defense has played well, but I don’t see them as a top tier group).

- That said, Quentin Johnston has now had three encouraging outings in a row.

- What we’ve seen from Bo Nix through the first three weeks of the season is very inline with who I think he is: a solid game manager that’s capable of more, on occasion, that benefits greatly from his future Hall of Fame coach.

- This was a perfect good/ bad game from Geno Smith: real nice stat line where most of his production had little to no impact on the team’s ability to actually win the game (in this case most of it came late when the game was already lost).

- The Raiders offensive line play continues to be dreadful, in both phases.

- Giving up 41 points to the Marcus Mariota Commanders (who also returned a punt for a touchdown) is a step past not good.

- Last year Kliff Kingsbury deployed one of the league’s most schematically sharp running games, where that rag tag group of runners (combined with Mariota) ran for 201 yards on 32 carries against Vegas.

- I said on Saturday that if I owned the Houston Texans, I’d need to be talked out of firing DeMeco Ryans at years end, which parallels how I felt about Brandon Staley with the Chargers years ago.

- If an NFL team is going to give Jon Gruden another shot, he’d immediately elevate the Texans or Giants. Right now, those look like the two most appealing (likely) openings next year.

- The Jaguars and Cardinals are both 2-1 where I’d frame both of them as “bad” through three games. I have more faith in Jacksonville ascending in their very winnable division.

- I’m a cancer survivor so I’ve genuinely been a James Conner guy for years, because what he’s done, for as long as he’s done it has been unreal given his background. That said, I think Trey Benson will effectively fill Conner’s shoes, maybe even be a slight upgrade later in the year.

- I did not see enough of Bucs vs. Jets to have any real opinion on that game, but holy hell was that another abnormal ending on a Sunday filled with blocked field goals and other forms of madness.

- What to say about Rams at Eagles. First, the Rams were ahead, by multiple scores for most of this game, where the blocked game winning field goal attempt and score by the Eagles made this final score look different than the game actually played.

- Credit where credit is due to Jalen Hurts, who played his best football of the season when it counted late against Philadelphia’s biggest threat in the NFC.

- Brutal loss for the Rams, but three quick, positive takeaways.

- The first is, and I’ve said this before, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an ultra producer that plays the game in the style that Puca Nacua does. I do not think this would be going on in other NFL cities, the combination of Nacua’s physical/ cerebral style is the perfect pairing with Sean McVay and the nuance Matthew Stafford (who you could call a king maker for wide receivers) plays the game.

- Second, I think Blake Corum is better (or perhaps has more upside is the right way to frame it) than Kyren Williams (who has earned the right to keep his job, to be clear).

- The McVay/ Stafford combination is what makes the Rams dangerous, but it’s their pass rush that elevates them to contender status. The Eagles are one of, if not the toughest team in the league for a pass rush to impact, because of their Oline, their weapons and their run centric style. That said, given the strength of their opponent, the Rams pass rush was promisingly impactful in this game, which is a very good sign for what this team is capable of come January.

- I still have absolutely no idea how Eagles vs. Rams wasn’t a primetime game or in the national 4:25 slot. Ravens vs. Lions and Bears vs. Cowboys I’m fine with, but how Giants vs. Chiefs was played under the lights instead, I get the why behind it but it’s still gross.

- Societies instinct to overvalue/ overreact to small sample sizes is an exploitable edge, if you’ve made it to the end, add that notion to your arsenal if it isn’t already there.

Until last week, I had watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014 for sports speculation purposes. Every Monday of the NFL season I write up observations on every game I’ve watched.

I do that for the purpose of growing my following, which means engagement is my requirement (likes, comments, bookmarks, retweets). As long as that remains high, I’ll continue doing this and my “this is what I’m looking for” slate preview on Saturday nights.

Follow me @RyanReynoldsNFL

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@geoffschwartz How much of the progression in downfield attack is linked to improved tackle play? Early in his career Mahomes had great tackles. Last two years it was a struggle. Hard to attack deep without good protection.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@LouStagner From the men's tees rated 1 stroke over par.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@LouStagner Played my home course with 2 gals that missed cut on the Epson tour tournament the day before. They had never played the course before and shot 2 and 3 under on a Sunday morning casual round. I'd put my life savings on the LPGA player.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

3 dynasty openings this year. DM if interested.

The Link here has the rosters, format, and links to the by-laws: https://t.co/AdSa2W50zV

Going Deeper
Year 8
12 Team
2 QB, 2 TE, Start 11
Premium QB and TE Scoring
$150 plus MFL fees per year

By-Laws - https://t.co/33e2SXkXJk

Going Deep 4
Year 4
12 Team
2 QB, 2 TE, Start 13
Premium QB and TE Scoring
No Trade Deadline
$200 plus MFL fees per year

By-Laws - https://t.co/Ugk4lTCZkX

The Future
Year 10
12 Team
Superflex, Start 9
$100 plus MFL fees per year

By-Laws - https://t.co/jO2HpMas5j

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@adplacksports @InsideSportsNet Bryson. -14.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

@MRileyGolf He picked the hardest pin to hit one on. Needs that front left pin.

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

most old man take is that when a game says it starts at 7:30 it should kick off exactly at that time

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 12 Insights

I’ve watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014. I’m going to run through observations for each team that played in Week 12.

Chicago Bears
- Min 30, Chi 27 (OT)
- This game was a tale of coaching for the Chicago Bears.
- In just his second game as OC, against one of the league’s best coached defenses, Thomas Brown let Caleb Williams be himself.
- I haven’t looked at the data, but in Brown’s two games at OC, it seemed like the Packers and Vikings blitzed much less than most other Bears opponents this season.
- That’s very noteworthy against Brian Flores, as the Bears offense was making him react to what they were doing (which is rare).
- Caleb Williams made a number of great plays in pressure management and tight window throws in this game, but he made one of the single most impressive throws while moving right that I’ve ever seen.
- Williams took a bad sack in overtime, and he missed a few throws (just about every QB does, every week), but he showed future MVP caliber ceiling in this game.
- Williams orchestrated a late drive that led to an overtime forcing field goal, but the composure he showed when clocking the ball for that FG opportunity, purposely letting the clock run down some, was very impressive for a rookie.
- DJ Moore threw a 40ish yard pass that wasn’t completely accurate, but accurate enough that I’d imagine Chicago will break that out again in the future.
- Chicago lost a fumble deep in their own end on a punt (terrible mental error by Deandre Carter) and had a FG attempt blocked.
- They also recovered an onsides kick.
- Defensively, Chicago was shredded on the ground again.
- The Bears allowed at least 3, 3rd and 10+ conversions late.
- They shut down Justin Jefferson, but were beaten up by Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson made big plays late.
- I’d call this the worst called defensive game from Matt Eberflus this season.
- The Bears now have 3 back breaking, close losses to NFC playoff teams. They will be an obvious positive regression candidate next year.

Arizona Cardinals
- Sea 16, Arz 6
- Arizona’s offense had a tough day in Seattle.
- The Cardinals finished with 49 rushing yards.
- Kyler Murray didn’t have a notable game, but he also didn’t have a performance indicative of 6 points.
- Murray sailed a pick six on a likely scoring drive, which largely determined this game.
- Trey McBride accounted for 133 of Murray’s 285 passing yards.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to have underwhelming production, but I went into this one thinking this was a bad matchup for him.
- Cardinals defense played well in both phases, shutting down Seattle’s run while accumulating 5 sacks.

Baltimore Ravens
- Bal 30, LAC 23
- The Ravens ran the ball 37 times against 22 pass attempts.
- The decision to go for it on 4th and short deep in their own end with a lot of game left would only be an acceptable decision for the Ravens, Bills and Eagles.
- Those three teams have veteran quarterbacks with high-end rushing upside behind quality offensive lines, giving them more outs and reliability than everyone else in those situations.
- Henry was dead to rights on a third and 1 run where he may be the only back in the league that converts on that specific play.
- Justice Hill broke his 51-yard TD run on that same drive
- Roquan Smith’s absence was felt early as the Chargers had success running the ball up the middle on the first drive.

Carolina Panthers
- KC 30, Car 27
- Generally speaking, this was the perfect outcome for this team as they kept coming back on KC, taking them to the brink, while also not sliding back in the draft order.
- The Panthers tied this game at 27 all with under 2 minutes to play.
- Bryce Young has been rock solid over his last three games, but he looked like a guy you don’t move on from in this one.
- Dave Canales continues to call successful opening drives.
- Panthers OL had a strong game against a difficult opponent.
- The Panthers desperately need a headliner pass catcher.
- Jonathan Brooks only had 2 carries in his debut.
- Carolina’s pass rush had a surprisingly impactful game with 5 sacks and 8 QB hits.

Cleveland Browns
- Cle 24, Pit 19
- A visually wonderful game with snowfall.
- Jameis Winston went 18/ 27 for 219 passing yards and a pick, with 3 carries for 7 yards and a rushing TD.
- Winston made some plays when it mattered, but his performance in this game was overhyped and he had a very ill timed fumble that led to a late, short field TD for Pittsburgh.
- Winston’s interception came on the next drive.
- Nick Chubb saw 20 carries.
- Jerry Jeudy is the clear main vein in this passing attack, where I’d frame Cedrick Tillman as Cleveland's fourth most talented pass catcher.
- Good showing out of the Browns defense after a disgraceful showing in New Orleans.
- Myles Garrett had 3 sacks. Seemed like he purposely wanted to reassert his dominance in this game.

Dallas Cowboys
- Dal 34, Wash 26
- Now this was a bizarre game, that was 13-9 Dallas with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
- Cooper Rush leaned into his solid, yet ultra conservative backup QB ceiling in this matchup.
- CeeDee Lamb went 10-67 on 12 targets, as an example.
- Rico Dowdle saw 19 of the Cowboys 22 running back carries.
- Second-year tight end Luke Schoonmaker is looking like a solid roleplayer.
- Electric returner Kavontae Turpin dropped a late game kickoff, then broke it off a spin move to give Dallas a 10-point lead with under 3 minutes to play.
- Dallas then gave up two scoring drives to Washington, including an 86-yard TD to Terry McClaurin which likely led to Cowboys secondary members doing gassers all week.
- Washington missed the PAT to tie the game.
- Dallas then returned the coming onsides kick for a score.
- Micah Parsons had 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss.

Denver Broncos
- Den 29, LV 19
- Bo Nix has now played 3 very strong games in a row.
- The Raiders are a bottom tier defense, but this game was more about Nix’s strong play than last week’s fairly inflated stat line.
- A great pass protection game from Denver.
- Denver’s run game was shut down, which is a fairly common theme.
- Courtland Sutton now has at least 70 yards and 8 targets in 5 straight games after going 8-97-2 against Vegas.
- The Broncos shut down the Raiders’ non-existent run game.
- Denver’s pass defense had a pretty absurd day after fielding 53 passes: 5 sacks, including two forced fumbles were one was lost. One interception. 10 QB hits, 7 passes defended.
- Continue to push the idea that if the season ended today, Sean Payton has to be Coach of the Year.

Detroit Lions
- Det 24, Ind 6
- The thing about good teams is that they tend to win games they should even when they don’t play particularly well.
- I’ve been leaning into the idea that the Lions defense isn’t as good as their general numbers would appear.
- In this game, Colts receivers created margin a number of times but didn’t receive accurate throws. Indianapolis also dropped a TD pass.
- Ultimately, Anthony Richardson’s uneven day as a passer was more about him than anything Detroit did.
- Lions offensive line lost more reps than I expected.
- David Montgomery left with an injury.

Green Bay Packers
- GB 38, SF 10
- Clean, but average game from Jordan Love against San Francisco’s beat up defense.
- During one sequence Love laid in a perfect deep shot for a would be score that Christian Watson dropped. Then, Love made another exceptional downfield throw that a 49ers defender made a great play on. Then, Love threw yet another downfield throw off line, into a small sea of San Francisco defenders that could have easily been picked.
- I mention that sequence because I think that’s who Jordan Love is.
- Josh Jacobs went 26-106-3. Jacobs is having an excellent year.
- Overall, the Packers ran the ball 42 times against just 23 passes.
- Xavier McKinney had his 7th interception of the season.
- Linebacker Quay Walker had one of his better games as a Packer.

Houston Texans
- Ten 32, Hou 27
- Terrible loss for the Texans, especially considering that they returned an interception for a touchdown.
- On the positive side, Houston’s pass rush continues to be a premium group recording 8 sacks.
- That’s where the compliments end.
- Their pass defense gave up 3 monster plays that largely drove this outcome.
- They also allowed over 100 yards to Tony Pollard on the ground.
- Joe Mixon was shut down, and C.J. Stroud had another very uneven game.
- Houston’s offensive line lost in both phases.
- Ultimately, it’s very hard to force 3 turnovers, accumulate 8 sacks, score on defense and still lose.
You could argue that Houston is still technically ahead of schedule, but this team added talent this offseason, but is worse overall.

Indianapolis Colts
- Det 24, Ind 6
- The Colts played well enough early to make this game interesting, but a dropped TD from Drew Ogletree resulted in a FG drive.
- Indianapolis did not score again from that point.
- This isn’t a surprise, but Richardson is not a reliable passer.
- He missed explosive opportunities to Alex Pierce and Adonai Mitchell.
- Speaking of Pierce, his abnormal season continues 27-629-4.
- Colts’ defense did everything they could to keep this game manageable.

Kansas City Chiefs
- KC 30, Car 27
- Chiefs offense played well, scoring on each of their first five drives resulting in a 27-16 lead.
- It’s Kansas City’s defense that shockingly allowed the Panthers to make this one interesting.
- The Chiefs offensive tackle situation is becoming concerning, as the Panthers below average pass rush had 5 sacks and was impactful all game.
- Patrick Mahomes broke off a 33-yard run that drove Kansas City’s game winning field goal drive.
- I’ve noticed with Xaiver Worthy that they are trying to make quick perimeter outs part of his standard usage. I’d imagine one day soon that will be used for an out and up in a high leverage spot, probably in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Chargers
- Bal 30, LAC 23
- The Chargers’ defense has not been very good against real offenses the last two weeks. Which isn't a big surprise for me.
- Justin Herbert made a few great plays in pressure management.
- He also made some great throws that were dropped or missed.
- In particular Quentin Johnston had a horrifying night, with a really bad 4th down drop on a drag.
- Ladd McConkey continues to look like the only long term skill player on the Chargers.
- If Josh Palmer was a difference making athlete he could have had a pretty big night. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had 150ish air yards in this matchup.
- LA was torched on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams
- Phi 37, LAR 20
- This sounded like a home game for the Eagles.
- This is odd to say, but the offense played quite well even though they didn’t score a lot of points.
- Cooper Kupp’s touchdown came late.
- Kyren Williams fumbled twice, losing one, while otherwise being solid but extremely unspectacular. It would be nice to see Blake Corum mix in more.
- Rams run defense was non existent and their secondary continues to be a liability, even though they saw very little volume in the passing game.
- I specifically watched Jared Verse on 7 plays, and he was doubled or chipped on all of them.
- Verse also dove over the top against the tush push multiple times where other defenses should borrow his approach, because he single handedly made one very close.
- If I were to list the top 10 edge rushers in the league today, I’m not sure how I could keep Verse off that list. I wish he got to play with Aaron Donald.

Las Vegas Raiders
- Den 29, LV 19
- Gardner Minshew was injured and replaced by Desmond Ridder.
- The Raiders offense failed across the board against a tough Denver defense, but Jakobi Meyers went 10-121 on 15 targets.
- Vegas put forward a pretty good effort here, where this was a one score game for most of the contest, but at the end of the day, this is the worst team in the league.

Miami Dolphins
- Mia 34, NE 15
- Miami was up 31-0 into the fourth.
- With Tua back the Dolphins are consistently taking care of business.
- It feels wild to say this, but Jonnu Smith was the main vein in the Dolphins passing game with a 9-87-1 line on 11 targets.
- Jaylen Waddle finally broke out for 8-144-1 where his game wasn’t entirely driven by his speed.
- It felt a bit like Raheem Mostert is being phased out for Jaylen Wright.
- Very good game out of the Dolphins defense, where first round Edge Chop Robinson popped a few times.
- Miami continues to struggle against tight ends as Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for 9-103-1 on 12 targets.

Minnesota Vikings
- Min 30, Chi 27 (OT)
- Kevin O’Connell had a very good game plan, as Justin Jefferson was essentially taken away but Minnesota purposely targeted the fills ins, in Chicago’s secondary.
- Vikings had a lot of success on the ground early, to the point I was surprised they didn’t run more as the game went on.
- I’d call this Sam Darnold’s best game as a Viking.
- He made a few good plays in pressure management, and some big throws on third and long.
- That said, a lot of Darnold’s production came late.
- I’d call this Jordan Addison’s best game as a pro.
- TJ Hockenson had an impactful game late.
- Caleb Williams shredded the Vikings, where I'd call this Minnesota's worst defensive performance of the year.

New England Patriots
- Mia 34, NE 15
- New England was down 31-0 into the fourth.
- Typical Drake Maye game where he made a few encouraging plays with his athleticism, where he missed a few layups and didn’t drive an effective offense.
- New England’s offensive line struggles returned in both phases.
- Patriots tight ends combined for 9-103-1 on 12 targets.
- Overall there is very little to like about New England’s roster and they seem years away.

New York Giants
- TB 30, NYG 7
- After an incompetence filled week regarding the handling of one of the worst long term starting quarterbacks in league history, the Giants looked like a team that quit.
- Dexter Lawrence and Malik Nabers more or less threw the coaching staff under the bus after the game.
- Brian Daboll did not have a very good game plan against Todd Bowles historically blitz heavy (especially against below average quarterbacks) defense.
- If the Giants lose decisively to Dallas on Thanksgiving, pretty good chance Daboll gets fired in season after this performance.
- The Giants deserved Baker Mayfield's mockery of Tommy DeVito's TD celebration.

Philadelphia Eagles
- Phi 37, LAR 20
- The Eagles had 45 rushing attempts to 22 passing attempts.
- Monster day out of Saquon Barkley who ran for 255 yards and ended up with 302 total.
- Barkley had two 70+ yard rushing Touchdowns.
- The first one he made people miss, on the second I think anyone that was fast would have scored as he was completely untouched.
- A.J. Brown accounted for 109 of Jalen Hurts 179 passing yards.
- A good enough game out of the Eagles defense, where they gave up yards but not much on the scoreboard, as the Rams scored a touchdown late.
- Jalen Carter was very impressive and he’s already turning into the headlining talent he was expected to be.
- Carter did not have any of the Eagles 5 sacks, but his immediate disruption stalled a few drives.

Pittsburgh Steelers
- Cle 24, Pit 19
- Steelers offense was pretty dormant until late.
- Outside of a lost fumble in his own end, Russell Wilson played well.
- Cleveland handed Pittsburgh two late turnovers that should have led to a Steelers win.
- Pittsburgh scored off a short field after a Jameis Winston fumble, but then shanked a punt after Winston’s interception on the next drive.
- Jaylen Warren is gradually becoming a bigger piece of the offense.

San Francisco 49ers
- GB 38, SF 10
- The should Kyle Shannahan get fired stuff is clickbait nonsense, but this was in the running for his worst called game as a 49er.
- Brandon Allen was not good, but he was actually a little better than I expected.
- I found both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel’s passing game usage to be sincerely bizarre and the reason I’d frame this as a not great game from Shanahan.
- George Kittle went 6-82-1.
- Christian Watson dropped a deep shot TD, otherwise San Francisco’s pass defense was solid against a quality opponent.
- The 49ers were uncharacteristically beat up on the ground.

Seattle Seahawks
- Sea 16, Arz 6
- Seattle’s offensive line has been a problem all year.
- Pass protection was once again a liability, but their run blocking has been down for the past two weeks.
- That was less concerning against San Francisco, but at home against the Cardinals is more concerning.
- Geno Smith didn’t exactly play well, but like last week he made a few plays when it mattered, ultimately doing enough to win.
- That said, like last week, Seattle’s ascending defense drove this outcome.
- Seattle had 5 sacks, including 2.5 from Leonard Williams.
- Williams also had 3 tackles for a loss.
- Coby Bryant had a 69-yard pick six off a sailed Kyler Murray pass that largely swung this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- TB 30, NYG 7
- Score was 30-0 into the fourth.
- Baker Mayfield’s disrespectful mockery of the Tommy DeVito TD celebration after Mayfield’s rushing TD when the game was already over, is something that I genuinely loved.
- Mayfield made a handful of great, first half pressure management plays that drove this outcome.
- 11 Buccaneers caught passes in this game.
- Bucky Irving and Rachaad White both had 12 carries, but Irving had a 56-yard run and 6 catches for 64 yards.
- Sterling Shepard had 5 catches for 16 yards, which is as odd of a line as you’ll ever see for a WR.
- Mike Evans looked like himself on his return from injury.
- Bucs defense took care of business against a bottom tier opponent.

Tennessee Titans
- Ten 32, Hou 27
- This outcome was largely driven by explosive plays from the Titans offense.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a 38-yard touchdown.
- Calvin Ridley had a 63-yard reception.
- Tight end Chig Okonkwo caught one pass for a 70-yard touchdown.
- Will Levis was 11 for 11 at one point in this game.
- He also threw a pretty bad pick six, where he didn’t see a zone defender on a slant.
- He also took 8 sacks and was hit 9 times.
- Tony Pollard went over 100 yards on the ground.
- The Titans shut down Joe Mixon while intercepting CJ Stroud twice while defending 7 passes.
- Tennessee’s pass rush was also impactful, including a late safety from Jeffery Simmons.

Washington Commanders
- Dal 34, Wash 26
- This was as strange of a game as you’ll ever see, as the score was 13-9 with 8 minutes left.
- Washington running backs were shut down all day and the Commanders generated little offense until late in the game.
- Jayden Daniels has looked more like a rookie over the past two games, but he also showed plenty of his upside in both phases, late.
- Daniels generated a field goal drive in the final minutes to return this to a one score game.
- Then after the defense forced a three and out, Terry McLaurin broke an 86-yard catch and run to potentially tie the game.
- Washington missed the PAT to tie.
- The Cowboys then returned the coming onsides kick attempt for a score.
- Daniels then threw a meaningless pick to end the game.

I’m not going to bullshit you: I’m doing this high-level, detailed content on social media this season to grow my following. So, if you enjoy this type of content, my requirement is engagement to reach new eyes: likes/ bookmarks/ retweets/ comments further that goal. I don’t care about attention, but I do want to reach new users. If you are a new user, follows are appreciated and I will continue to do this series through the rest of the season.

[Zachary Schultz @schultzdynasty]

Yo @amazon go back to the All 22 and get rid of this Sky Cam on the Prime Vision TNF Broadcast.