Scil

Sentinel enthusiast | #OSINT

[Scil @scil_int]

I suppose it is time.

[Tomas Pueyo @tomaspueyo]

Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today

1. Iran is a mountain & desert fortress

[Intelschizo @Schizointel]

Operation Pavutyna, delivered more than symbolic damage, but a permanent degradation of Russia’s long range strike and nuclear delivery capabilities. Given the limited production capacity, aging fleets, and long overhaul timelines, each aircraft lost constitutes a long term capability gap that cannot be rapidly filled.

To briefly dive deeper on this roughly a third of Russia's strategic bombers are in various stages of maintenance, while Operation Pavutyna eliminated at least 20% of the operational fleet. Since 2022, an estimated 28% of the total inventory has been lost. This attrition places substantial strain on Russia's ability to meet long range strike and deterrence objectives, particularly as demands persist across multiple theaters. With a reduced pool of airworthy bombers, the Russian Aerospace Forces face mounting challenges in sustaining operational tempo, maintaining strategic credibility, and fulfilling mission requirements. As Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on the more this graphic becomes a countdown to strategic exhaustion.

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

Why did Ukraine publicly disclose so much info about Operation “Spiderweb”?

That’s a very good question — and the answer reveals how modern warfare now goes far beyond the battlefield.

1/n

[ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki]

1/ Donald Trump has abandoned legally mandated US and international efforts to hold Russia accountable for its war crimes in Ukraine, in an apparent undisclosed favour to Vladimir Putin. ⬇️

[Scil @scil_int]

🚨 Week 13, 2025: Russia has completed repairs on the bridge linking Lysychansk and Sjeverodonetsk — just 13km from the front line.

The crossing, out since summer 2022, could now play a key role in troop & supply movement.

📍48.9248, 38.43784
#UkraineWar #Geopolitics

[Scil @scil_int]

@HpwWJVafCv83954 コントラストを高めるには、(A-B)/(A+B) を使用することをお勧めします。(Custom > Index)

[Paper Skies @PaperSkies_ua]

For the world’s #1 weapons exporter, there’s no better marketing move than publicly demonstrating to both current and potential customers that you have a "kill switch" for the weapon systems those countries chose to rely on for their national defense. And the decision to activate that "kill switch" rests entirely on the outcome of a presidential election—one decided by people easily swayed by fears of threats like "transgender mice" or "Canadian drug trafficking."

F-35 anyone?

[ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki]

Reminder: when people demand that Volodymr Zelensky should step down and hold an election, they are literally repeating a Nazi demand from World War II that Britain rejected then.

[Mark Krutov @kromark]

But my favorite find is the Nepali named Prakash Pahari. He started posting on TikTok out of boredom after being wounded and admitted to a Moscow hospital, sharing literally everything he saw, along with old war videos from his phone. https://t.co/kRyq0FV8vd

[Vatnik Soup @P_Kallioniemi]

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce Russia’s main narratives and explain how they are being spread online by Russian operatives and MAGA Republicans. After three years of war, Russia still relies on old narratives, now amplified by the Trump administration.

1/25

[GeoConfirmed @GeoConfirmed]

GeoConfirmed UKR - Misinformation by President Trump.

While we typically refrain from political commentary, President Donald Trump's recent statement regarding the war in Ukraine is so egregious that we feel compelled to respond.

Several claims made by President Trump have already been debunked. We've included responses from Grok AI for each claim, demonstrating that even Grok refutes the misinformation spread by the president.

In this thread, we will provide geolocated footage as a reminder to everyone that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking the beginning of this war.

1)

The United States has not spent $350 billion on this war, nor has it outspent Europe by $200 billion. In fact, European contributions have surpassed those of the US. Moreover, a significant portion of the American military aid (around 90% !) is spend in the US, reinvesting in the US economy.

https://t.co/ixpSYq760j

https://t.co/R43tYKS97a

https://t.co/HcD3e906Ax

https://t.co/KoDBJO691b

(Grok: https://t.co/xvtso8g5ZC)

2)

President Zelensky did not claim that half the American money sent to Ukraine is "missing". He stated that half of the promised funds had not been received, which is a crucial distinction.

https://t.co/KoDBJO691b

https://t.co/UvDRegmS2a

https://t.co/pSQBtQ8k6R

(Grok: https://t.co/TBgyaJQog8)

3)

Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during wartime, a measure designed to protect the democratic process from foreign interference, particularly given Russia's known capabilities in this area...

https://t.co/g52JHKbxOS

https://t.co/oDp3fUd8mq

https://t.co/nn0RpBGGu6

(Grok: https://t.co/UFR5gGvlmi)

4)

President Zelensky is not a dictator, as evidenced by Ukraine's constitutional framework and his commitment to holding elections once hostilities cease. In contrast, it's worth noting that President Putin consistently wins elections in Russia with implausibly high percentages of votes, with opposition that 'falls out of windows", is poisened or jailed, raising questions about the true nature of Russia's electoral process.

https://t.co/Y7ZqMgz8QO

https://t.co/ROaxPjVHK7

https://t.co/xY73CzziHd

https://t.co/LiPrS6NWNL

https://t.co/RMMPcOwFIM

(Grok: https://t.co/8oYZ22jCDL)

5)

President Zelensky has a approval rate above 50% and not 4%. 4% is Russian disinformation.

https://t.co/QClKP7ATLz

https://t.co/0D2e4ePdJd

https://t.co/b2f6x9F3Fp

https://t.co/oj4y2Nh5mo

(Grok: https://t.co/RGglftewgL)

6)

There was no NATO expansion to the East, as NATO itself cannot expand. Instead, democratic countries independently decide whether they want to become members of the alliance. The process of joining NATO is voluntary and involves multiple steps, including meeting specific requirements and completing a formal application process.

The fact that many of Russia's former neighbors have chosen to seek NATO membership speaks volumes about their perception of Russia and their desire for collective security.

The decision of these nations to pursue NATO membership reflects their sovereign right to determine their own foreign policy and security arrangements. It also indicates a preference for the stability and security guarantees that NATO membership offers, rather than remaining under Russian influence.

Regarding the famous 'promise':
Article 103 of the UN Charter establishes a clear hierarchy in international law. It states that obligations under the UN Charter prevail over obligations under any other international agreement in case of conflict. This supremacy extends beyond just treaties, as it is generally understood to also apply to customary international law.
The hierarchy can be summarized as follows:

1) UN Charter obligations
2) Other treaties and customary international law
3) Non-treaty international texts
4) Political promises or commitments
5) Historical claims

Russia's invasion of Ukraine clearly violates fundamental principles of the UN Charter, including the prohibition on the use of force against the territorial integrity of another state. Any attempts to justify this action based on lower-ranking considerations like political promises or historical claims are legally irrelevant.

https://t.co/Izu3N1dTLv

https://t.co/BCVCGDSM2d

https://t.co/1uXijMIcDt

(Grok: https://t.co/Gh0hvwaeCN and https://t.co/xQ9Hl9zHt0 and https://t.co/xQ9Hl9zHt0)

8)

Who initiated this nearly three-year-long war? RUSSIA.

As a platform that has analyzed over 50,000 frames/videos related to the conflict, we will remind the president ,with geolocated footage, who started this war: RUSSIA.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, despite repeatedly denying any plans for invasion in the preceding days.

https://t.co/bkygHVSYXk

https://t.co/pSQBtQ8k6R

(Grok: https://t.co/Ujmef6lyCF)

---

24 FEB 2022 - Russian tanks crossing the border from Belarus into Ukraine in Senkivka.

52.106063, 31.780644
4Q4J+C7C Sen'kivka, Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine

Sources: https://t.co/4VNiYZYDbS

1/11

[Scil @scil_int]

@sipjack1776 @Borrowed7Time Returned to St. Petersburg from Kaliningrad and left out again towards south-east (possibly Moscow).

[Scil @scil_int]

Great thread regarding the strong C-band Radio Frequency Interferences caught in Sentinel-1.

[GiamMa-based researchers SDR R&D IoT @giammaiot2]

New & not new details of GPS Spoofing,Jamming, Anomaly,Faults,Bug,Hack or Magic

The new The Monster Radar of Smolensk, Russia & its historic GPS/GNSS Spoofing circles among the first & largest.

#Jammer #Jamming #Spoofer #Spoofing #GPS #GNSS #EW #ElectronicWarfare

[Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group/UCMC @hwag_ucmc]

"Syria has terminated an investment agreement that gave Russia control over the strategic Tartus port"
https://t.co/lDl3ZHaNBe

[auonsson @auonsson]

Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo!

[Belarusian Hajun project @Hajun_BY]

Another defense line appeared in Belarus 6 km from the border with Lithuania? New satellite images

@svaboda published fresh satellite images of the section of the Belarusian-Lithuanian border near the Hozhski training ground (Hrodna region), taken by Planet Labs on December 14, 2024.

They show that new fortifications, including a 340-meter-long ditch, trenches and fortifications, appeared 6 km from the border with Lithuania in the northwestern part of the training ground. They are located on both sides of the R42 road and are probably still under construction.

The media notes that they began to dig the trenches there back in 2022-2023. However, the territory where they are located is not de facto part of the Hozhski training ground, but is part of the Horadzenskaya Pushcha national landscape reserve.

Recall that in December, we wrote about the secret visit of the Belarusian military and officials to Bryansk region, where they studied the Russian experience of the construction of fortified areas. Then it was also noted that a new fortification would be created in Hrodna region, which was mentioned by the head of the main department of combat training of the Belarusian Armed Forces back in January 2024. Also recall that such fortifications have been previously created in Homiel and Brest regions of Belarus. And the “Khrenin’s line” near Zhabinka (Brest region) is regularly used by the military during trainings.

[Vatnik Soup @P_Kallioniemi]

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the absolute state of X in January 2025. Since its acquisition by Elon Musk, this platform has rapidly transformed into his personal political tool and a breeding ground for hate speech and disinformation.

1/22

[Scil @scil_int]

We've got in today's Sentinel-1 imagery (18:05 local time) view of where "Eagle 2", suspected of cutting the Estlink-2 cables, is anchored with it's only remaining anchor. The vessel is accompanied by Finnish law enforcement vessel Usko.

[Michelle Wiese Bockmann @Michellewb_]

FREE to READ: Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker seized by Finland as authorities there investigate damage to an underwater electricity cable on Christmas Day, was previously loaded with special transmitting and receiving devices used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship. All the details here: https://t.co/0gXYBjXVq5