Scuba Dave

'Hope is never good' -Norm MacDonald

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Bought some ETH on this retrace

Probably early and could see this take forever or even break down in typical ETH fashion but gonna give it one last shot

May Vitalik stop dumping on us

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Time for all of us to become ETH maxis
We've got 9 days to turn this monthly green

[Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju]

#Bitcoin euphoria is here.

99.3% of UTXOs are in profit now. Everyone's happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov '21 bull trap).

This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.

[Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju]

ETH-BTC NUPL hits a 4-year low.

Despite #Ethereum's underperformance against #Bitcoin, ETH holders endure losses without realizing them. This mirrors levels from its early 2020 bottom.

This might be an opportunity for ETH believers.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

#ETH / #BTC new cycle low.

Remember last cycle it bottomed once QE returned, and JPow told us we are not getting that yet.

You can tell #BTC is taking liquidity from various corners of the cryptoverse.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

This is going to confuse 90% of macro tourists but in a few months we will realize the catalyst to the next leg of slowing growth will have looked to have been triggered by the Fed cutting

You need to be second order thinking maxing

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

Guessing we top at 4.2T - 6.7 currently. Will narrow it down more later

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $100 billion asset manager VanEck says their #Bitcoin price target for this cycle is $180,000.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Imagine the rage on this app when the fed cuts again in December

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Price down
Funding up
People levered to the tits

People trying real hard to get liq'd in a market that is almost certainly going higher

There really is no need to go full retard when the market is going full retard for you

[Nayib Bukele @nayibbukele]

I told you so.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Even with these fresh #Bitcoin ATHs, the distance between price and the 200DMA is still cooled off.

The Mayer Multiple Z-Score is only just above 0, meaning we're near the long-term average (with plenty of room to run).

Love to see it.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

#Bitcoin has entered the Euphoria zone, by convincingly breaking through the previous cycles ATH

However, it is doing so with a relatively cooled down MVRV Ratio

The 8-months of chopsolidation allowed investors to acclimate to higher prices, forming a firm foundation for launch

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I hate that when the market is like this, no matter how exposed you are, you feel underexposed lmao

But I certainly do need to add a few alts with how this is shaping up with the goal being to earn more $BTC

I will look to add some things further down the risk curve next week

Historically flows have been from high to low in terms of marketcap, not always the case but often a good way to play

Very excited about what the next few months ahead MAY have to offer. The invalidation for me would be a deviation, but obviously even if that happened, however unlikely you should be well within profits in the worst case scenario at this point on your port.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Wow. I love the way this guy thinks and writes. Banger

[Byzantine General @ByzGeneral]

@Dogetoshi And now he's gonna do it AGAIN.

[//Bitcoin 𝕵ack 🐐 @bitcoinjack]

Ethbtc gonna gigachad

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Basically imo the reason btc is flirting with ATH despite no monetary is the fiscal dominance era we’re in. I don’t see returns in 2024 being limited simply due to lack of monetary impulse. It would just be more of the same which has clearly been positive for risk.

No reason to think fiscal impulse slows especially into a potential red sweep

[VD @hmalviya9]

Concerns around $ETH Price Drop, and The Future Outlook

It’s been clear to everyone over the past two years that ETH would scale through L2s, aiming to become a settlement layer for modular L2s in the near future.

The consequences of this roadmap were also expected to bring a decline in gas usage from Dapps on ETH L1, which in turn was supposed to result in less token burn. This meant ETH was likely to become an inflationary asset again.

Now, after the Unichain announcement, we’ve all experienced this sudden realization that ETH’s price action might be over. ETH/BTC hitting new lows adds an extra element for speculators, and people holding ETH are currently in a state of great self-doubt.

Looking at the burn data: DeFi apps account for 34% of the supply burn, while ETH transfers account for 7%.

The market now speculates that the burn share from DeFi and ETH transfers may drop further, but that L2 burn could increase simultaneously.

Currently, L2 usage contributes about 4% to the burn rate. As the L2 ecosystem on ETH scales more—potentially with 10x more usage—the burn could also increase. Over the next 2-3 years, L2 burn might exceed 30%, with DeFi dropping to 4% or less, possibly bringing the burn rate back to similar levels.

As long as ETH’s inflation rate remains below the PoW rate (which was around 3.6%), it’s manageable; we’re now at 0.5%, which is still much lower than Bitcoin’s supply inflation.

The major argument against ETH is its lack of a fixed supply, as it’s demand-driven. So, trust the demand and understand the shifting nature of it: ETH is moving toward being a settlement layer, where two metrics will matter most—gas burn from L2s and the amount of coins staked monthly versus new coin issuance.

In the past three months, around 2M new ETH have been staked, while 4.8M ETH were burned against 8M newly issued ETH, meaning approximately 25% of the new supply is getting staked, and about 60% of the supply is burned.

To maintain a balanced state, if we see a drop in the burn rate, we should see an increase in the staking rate, and as long as ETH staking yield remains attractive, the staking ratio is set to grow.

Enter EigenLayer AVSs and their potential yield.

Institutional interest around ETH staking will likely drive volume here.

ETH holds the majority share in stablecoin volume, which will eventually migrate to L2s. All of this movement will impact the cost that L2s pay ETH to settle transactions, contributing to the burn from the L2 side while reducing it from the ETH L1 app ecosystem.

[loomdart @loomdart]

everything prices up hard soon iwo