Scott Briggs

I tweet about data, analytics, sports and solving all the world’s problems. Work at SAS, opinions are my own.

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@jthav4 @KegsnEggs Sign me up!

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@TomFornelli Yes! You schedule that game because a win gives you resume a boost. A loss doesn’t eliminate you because you still have your conference schedule to earn a playoff berth. It gives you 2 paths to the playoff. Unfortunately they lost to FL to hurt their chances

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@AmericanAir Let’s hope so, at this rate it will be an 18 hour plus trip from Albany to Chicago with a 7 hour stop in CVG. And that’s before more delays. Even with weather that seems extreme, doesn’t it?

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@AmericanAir flight 4240 from ALB to ORD scheduled for Saturday August 16 has been an absolute nightmare. deboarded twice in ALB, finally took off, circled Ohare for an hour plus. Needed to refuel diverted to CVG at 3 am. Now delayed again!?!?

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@ryenarussillo Better question: how does the #4 team in FPI lose be 3 TD’s to a .500 team? Bonus question: how/why do they expect to get a playoff spot after losing twice to .500 teams?

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@jthav4 Sounds like a CFB and UFC weekend

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@jthav4

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@KegsnEggs @municipal_co Washington 21 - IU 17 #GameDayUpset

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@ThatSportsPaige @KegsnEggs Just assumed he was in mourning over the Mets…

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@RexChapman My dog Mango wants to weigh in on this topic.

[Don Van Natta Jr. @DVNJr]

“I have concepts of a plan… man…”

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@KegsnEggs

[claire rogers @kclairerogers]

My sister’s boyfriend vacuums mow lines into the carpet 😭😭

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@SickosCommittee Truer words have never been spoken!

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@atrupar Saw Smashing Pumpkins and Green Day at Wrigley last night. Fantastic show. Definitely go if you have the opportunity.

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@kurtbardella Very similar to the July 4 Highland Park shooter. Young white male outsider, shooting from a roof top at a large gathering. I think in that case the father bought the assault rifle also. Another mass shooting with a similar story in today’s America.

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@TanglewoodMA what times will the gates open on the Fourth of July for James Taylor?

[Monday Q Info @acaseofthegolf1]

If this four minutes doesn’t make you love Mondays I can’t help you.
Nick Bienz works at Golf Galaxy, has never played any pga tour sanctioned event, he is so nervous he’s pounding beers. Just shot 65.
Please take the time to watch this.

[Kirk Borne @KirkDBorne]

How a young statistician identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias" and saved lives:

During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.

Analysts examined returning bombers, plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below), and came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake.

By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset:

The planes that were damaged and unable to return.

• The "seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• The "unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not.

Wald concluded that armor should be added to the *unharmed* regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).

His profound logic: Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.

Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.

Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias":

The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

Survivorship Bias is all around us — its cost to business can be huge.

When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.

What is unseen often has more value than what is seen.

Source for this post: https://t.co/94yuQXs5FQ

[Scott Briggs @scott_briggs]

@KegsnEggs thoughts?

[Mark Fox @ThePluggedLie]

I would run through a brick wall for Scottie Scheffler’s attorney