Scott O'Hagan

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[NASCAR @NASCAR]

The NASCAR family is devastated at the loss of Greg Biffle, who was one of our 75 greatest drivers and became known for his relentless post-career humanitarian work.

We extend our deepest condolences.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee WHERE CAN I WATCH THE OYMPICS…I MEAN WORLD CUP???

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@GabeBock Oh and ride the tram to the top of JHMR and get waffles at Corbets Cabin.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@GabeBock Biscuits and gravy at bubbas bbq for breakfast. Mangey Moose in Teton Village is good. Pizza at Pinky’s. Sidewinders has a cool sports bar feel with some good food. The Virginian and Gun Barrell are overrated imho.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@Tnyhaug49 He’s not carrying the front wheel…yet!!!

https://t.co/N1xt5zbHUJ

[Racer X @racerxonline]

Gone too soon 💔 Ride in peace 🙏

Ken Block passes away at 55 in a snowmobile accident.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee gate not dropping??? Wouldn’t happen with a Pro Gate Europe!!!!

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee helmet as a hat guy. Douche or no douche?

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee Check out this totally original meme. Never been used before.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee NOT TODAY!!!

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee Follow for more hot takes.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee that Germany kit is 🔥

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@Tnyhaug49 Was literally shocked.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee No #progateeurope plug??? Disappointed.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee Get @Tnyhaug49 to go put a mic by the gate so we can hear the cadence.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee @Tnyhaug49 Don’t hate. They just added a logo!

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee This would suffice.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee We expect nothing less from you and Palmer at the Grands live show.

[Scott O'Hagan @ScottBrohagan]

@chatter_coffee WHERE YOU AT SOCAL MAKE SOME NOISE!