Scottilicious

"A world that is ordered is not the world-order. There are moments of silent depth in which you look at the world order fully present."
Not financial advice.

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

Fun article by Will at The Oracle @polymarketinfo from the @Polymarket folks on some of the factors that influence my predictions. When interviewed I was beat up and mentally scattered from watching news and so on but he made a solid article out of it. https://t.co/9Fn3NqE846

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@ZacharyDonnini When are we expecting the next drop?

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

Let's surf yo... Riding waves in California's election.... Taking some profits and diversifying risk... Profitably sold 20% of my massive 300k+ NO ON SPENCER PRATT for Los Angeles mayor position in the .86-.88 range last night to buy some NO on Tom Steyer for Governor around .89-.90. The Steyer bet is riskier because if he sticks around the position will lose $ on paper. But I don't think he makes it to the general election, while Pratt does but loses handily to Bass. Hopefully I get paid early on that switcharoo portion!

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@aseitzwald @MaineVillager The two or three ladies who hated on
Platner, were they put in there for anecdotal reasons or do they really represent 30% of the people you interviewed?

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

This is interesting re Graham Platner current controversy, looks like maybe Collins is not a saint either. Should candidate personal dating and marriage lives be a part of what’s scrutinized by voters? In countries outside of the USA that subject is still often respected as private. Thoughts?

[Andy O'Brien @aobrien2010]

Susan Collins should be careful about throwing stones from glass houses when it comes to issues of infidelity. It’s been an open secret in Washington DC for decades but the WSJ & NY Times have never probed into it. Wonder why?

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@PredMTrader I’m 300k + on no….

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@stingray_agent Nuances. Some of these will end up losers but 200% plus APR justifies it when the conviction is strong.

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

This below is so on point. Just bought more Graham Platner (after selling some earlier in the .98s) in the .92-.96 range. Also, it's old news. Mills gonna restart her campaign to try to overcome the 20+ point Platner advantage? I don't think so. (not financial advice, do your DD)

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@stingray_agent I like your profile photos too funny

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@GroyperFinance_ a few, a man needs alts these days

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@bernardbulletin Who do you think ultimately wins?

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

Never thought of prediction in these terms but pretty cool!

[すたんれい｜Alc.0% 人文知回路 @stanrei_note]

他人に腹を立てる正体は、脳科学でいう「予測誤差」へのパニックなんですよね。

短気な人は、無意識に「世界は自分の思い通りに動くはず」という硬直した前提を持っているため、予測が外れた瞬間に脳がエラーを起こし、その無力さへのイラ立ちを「相手への怒り」にすり替えて暴れています。つまり、予想を外した自分にキレている状態です。

一方で、本当に心の余裕がある人は「他人が思い通りに動かないこと」なんて最初から織り込み済み。

だから想定外の理不尽が飛んできても、まともに衝突しません。脱力した状態で、まるでウェイブ坂口のごとく「ヒョイッ」と最小限の動きで受け流してしまう。

怒りを撒き散らすのは、自分の予測精度の低さとディフェンス力のなさを露呈しているようなもの。「おっと、予測誤差が出たな」と自分の前提条件をその場でアップデートできる身軽さこそが大事だと思います。

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@XxX_Niki_24_XxX I'm not super familiar with polyfund but from what I can see the founders are not out in the open. To me that's important if I'm putting funds on a platform I want to know who is running it.

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

Here is a fun little roundtable we did at the conference a few weeks back that might interest people who want to set up funds or other vehicles like vaults to manage money in prediction markets. Guys from SuperStrat and River Markets are great minds! https://t.co/MLb971UVPR

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@POLYSTARSAPP @Polymarket No idea what I’m looking at (an nft?) but whatever it is it’s kinda badass

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@crypto_lili @bryanbehar He hasn’t announced it because he doesn’t have one it’s just another reality grift for him.

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@KayeSteinsapir You're spot on. He's by far the worst option of the three, and we have enough incompetent reality tv stars wreaking havoc in USA. Also his supporters can't even recognize that LA is a weak mayor city and a lot of the problems are structural; city council or state driven.

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@Real_Turley B when pigs fly

[Scottilicious @scottonPoly]

@Lincoln_Osis @markpinc @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA Cope my ass. Do you realize LA has a weak mayor position n her hands are largely tied by city council? Despite that she's been able to get national and state $ for LA. Have you really researched this beyond a few meme videos? But ya let's put in an incompetent reality grifter.