Scuttlebutt Investor

Value Investor passionate about logically and creatively dissecting businesses to identify the source and sustainability of competitive advantage

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

I spent some time digging into $FIZZ some time back and thought it was an interesting case study on brand building but it ended up in the “too hard” pile for me. Recent weakness reminded me that a lot of players with a lot of resources want their share https://t.co/opRLXSLE7D

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

“The goal is not to earn a high profit margin; the goal is to earn the most profit dollars per unit of capital (the latter creates value)”

Capital allocation gold. Every CFO of every public company needs to internalize this statement.

HT @JohnHuber72
https://t.co/XuvniizKbK

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

I love how all these companies talking about AI and agents and Costco ($COST) out here talking about adding cookie and cake ordering to their mobile app so you don’t have to fill out a paper form!

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

If you really want to have an impact @pulte and create more housing affordability, you should look at the cost of title insurance . It is absurd- the risk doesn’t match the inflated premiums. It is one of the biggest parts of the closing costs. No one has really been able to solve for it.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

This is incredible. Tim Friede deserves some major honor for his contributions to humanity.

“Friede, 57, was bitten by more than 16 different species and said he went into anaphylactic shock a dozen times.”

“Now, his blood has been used to create a prototype for a universal antivenom.”

Makes me think of the scene from Princess Bride with Wesley and iocaine powder. Inconceivable!

https://t.co/83Y2f1uSoh

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@pitdesi No Kati Roll company? Not as good as it used to be years ago but I still love it.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

Using regular in-flight WiFi after using Starlink in-flight Wifi is like going back to AOL dial up after using high speed broadband.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

$HESAY

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Hermès has perfected the psychology of scarcity and demand.

The CEO of the ~$250B French luxury giant says Hermès “creates desire” by selling “time”. This concept of “time” means heritage, craftsmanship and making customers wait.

I wrote more here:https://t.co/0Z4KCKjADg

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

Some years back, I was trying to decide whether Facebook/Meta or Google/Alphabet’s business was more durable as an investment.

I ultimately came to the conclusion that search was more durable than social media. Being the yellow pages of the internet seemed like a prime position and attempts by Microsoft/Bing and others had seemed to have no impact on Google’s market share because usage behaviors had become ingrained when Google was so much better than anyone else. Even when some competitors had caught up to Google in terms of quality of search results, people didn’t seem to switch their behaviors. Some valuable search terms still commanded $10-$20 per click or more.

Social media engagement on the other hand seemed more fickle. Facebook’s popularity had seemed to reach saturation and was loosing its cool factor amongst younger folk. Luckily Zuck had the foresight to purchase Instagram but it seemed just a matter of time until engagement started waning there as a younger generation moved on to the next cool thing.

I don’t know where Google goes from here. It’s early days but I already see consumers switching their behaviors to Perplexity and others. @pitdesi you’re right that it requires cannibalizing the goose that lays golden eggs but I guess if you don’t cannibalize yourself, your competitors will?

I think I got it wrong in choosing Google over Facebook. (Partly due to the Zuck factor).

As with most things, the existential risk is not obvious and usually comes from left field.

Investing is hard…

[Sheel Mohnot @pitdesi]

Google down 8% bc Safari search queries are down, more people use AI.

Real innovators dilemma: What do you do if you’re Sundar?

Search is a $200B cash cow. AI generated answers are 10x+ expensive, hard to monetize.

If they go all-in on AI they cannibalize the golden goose.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@portfolio14 Bummer. Thanks for the info!

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

Anyone figure out the handbook that Buffett was reading to discover the Japanese companies he invested in?

Sounded like the S&P 500 manuals of yore but the Japan edition (except in English I presume). He said the print was too small for him to read now. Second question of the 2025 BRK Annual Meeting. Abbreviated Transcript below.

“It’s been about six years now since our Japanese investments. I was just going through a little handbook that probably had two or three thousand Japanese companies in it. One problem I have is that I can’t read that handbook anymore – the print’s too small. But there were these five trading companies selling at ridiculously low prices. So I spent about a year acquiring them. And then we got to know the people better, and everything that Greg and I saw, we liked better as we went along.

…

“I never dreamt of that when I picked up that handbook. It’s amazing what you can find when you just turn the page. We showed a movie last year about “turn every page,” and I would say that turning every page is one important ingredient to bring to the investment field. Very few people do turn every page, and the ones who turn every page aren’t going to tell you what they’re finding. So you’ve got to do a little of it yourself.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@InvestmentTalkk Also- I think it was Q2 2020.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@InvestmentTalkk How do I get to this type of data in koyfin?

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@shomikghosh21 No LVMH. Hermès. Only GOATs for me.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

The evolution of China from communists to capitalists in communists' clothing has been one of the greatest stories of wealth creation that the world has seen. This has been a boon for luxury goods companies. The pendulum may be swinging the other way but I am doubtful that this is truly a secular change. Demonstrating status to other humans is as old as time and isn’t going out of fashion anytime soon, especially in China.

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

https://t.co/4VRSyto6at

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@TSOH_Investing Half the proceeds (after tax) go to GLIDE - an organization that Buffett supported for years and one that I have personally volunteered at so doubly supportive. https://t.co/LRC4zr9urQ

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

Another banger from the master of conversation @BillBrewsterTBB. Really enjoyed this episode and the talk about Buffett and dollar stores. https://t.co/vxCWHzZaC6

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

Also if you haven’t picked up ‘Buffett and Munger Unscripted’ yet- do it now. Exactly what I’ve been looking for- I’ve spent countless hours trying to parse out the nuggets from years of Berkshire meetings. This does the work for me. Really enjoying it. Thanks @TSOH_Investing

[Scuttlebutt Investor @Scuttlebutt_Inv]

@patrick_oshag Chuck Akre