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Scythe AI
@scytheaipicks
- MLB model live 3/29 - AI powered
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- Get the picks + analysis before first pitch
Joined April 2026
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The capper you're paying right now is guessing. He doesn't have a model or real data. He knows just as much about the MLB as you, and you're falling for it.
We built Scythe because we were tired of it. Our model has thousands of lines of code, hundreds of thousands of rows of Statcast data for every MLB batter, every pitcher, every matchup projected before the line is even set. The accuracy speaks for itself.
Check the screenshot.
We're not promising you win every bet. Nobody honest will. What we're promising is an edge - real, data-driven, profitable over time. Every pick posted. Nothing deleted. Ever.
We just dropped our Discord. It's free. Get in early and see what sharp MLB betting actually looks like.
https://t.co/t0PVtmTsAI
https://t.co/n0vBdhpjqp
Scythe is flagging a signal in the Marlins vs Nationals game. Max Meyer under 18 outs!
Tune in to see our Taj Bradley and Troy Melton picks as well in the Tigers vs Rays game and White Sox vs Twins.
Carlos Rodon over or under in the Yankees game tonight?
A message from Scythe about why our picks didn't go out yesterday
Tough scene for Max Fried today!
Keeping an eye on this Phillies v Red Sox game and Angels v Guardians
👀
@ProprStats Yup on Lambert
@NOS_PICKS I like Lamberts over tn
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Free Pick Ryan Weathers K O5.5 (-130) | 1.17u
We are taking Ryan Weathers OVER 5.5 strikeouts tonight. Weathers projects to 7.7 Ks against a line of 5.5—we see a 72% chance this clears while the book sits at 45%.
His sweeper is the star of the show here, generating a 49% whiff rate on 20% usage, and that swing-and-miss stuff will play clean against a Baltimore lineup that hasn't seen this arsenal yet. The changeup at 85 mph also carries real chase potential with a 30% whiff rate, giving Weathers two plus strikeout weapons to lean on over his projected 5.8 innings of work.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros -- 2 Picks
Julio Rodríguez TB U1.5 (-120) | 0.86u
Under for Julio. Peter Lambert's arsenal is built on swing-and-miss, particularly his changeup sitting at 89mph with a 37% whiff rate that has proven devastating. Rodríguez carries a .214 BA against Lambert's pitch mix with a slugging percentage of just .393—numbers that indicate weak contact quality and minimal power projection.
With a 28% K rate against this arsenal, Rodríguez will be chasing strikeouts rather than putting the ball in play, making multiple bases a difficult outcome.
Luke Raley TB O0.5 (-120) | 0.8u
On the flip, the model spit out over for Luke Raley against Peter Lambert. Raley's .222 BA against Lambert's pitch mix paired with a .431 slugging percentage reveals a hitter who makes hard contact when he connects, and his lower 34% K rate means he'll have more opportunities to put the ball in play than Rodríguez.
Lambert's fastball comes in at 95mph with only a 20% whiff rate—hittable velocity that Raley can leverage. One hit or extra-base knock gets us over this line, and Raley's contact profile gives him the best shot to achieve it in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians -- 2 Picks
Oswald Peraza Hit U0.5 (+100) | 0.95u
We are taking the UNDER on Oswald Peraza recording a hit tonight against Joey Cantillo's arsenal. Peraza carries a .149 batting average against this exact pitch mix, and with a 41% strikeout rate, he's going to miss bats at an elite level—especially when Cantillo sits at 92 mph on his four-seam fastball with minimal whiff stuff underneath.
The book is pricing this at even money, but we see closer to a 65% probability that Peraza goes hitless; the market is overvaluing his ability to put the ball in play against contact-suppressing stuff.
Jorge Soler TB O0.5 (-115) | 0.91u
Jorge Soler is going OVER 0.5 total bases tonight. Soler slugs .413 against Joey Cantillo's pitch arsenal and carries a .225 batting average against the mix—a meaningful gap that suggests quality contact when he does connect.
With only a 29% strikeout rate, Soler makes frequent contact and has the raw power (evidenced by that .413 slugging percentage) to turn a single at-bat into a base.
We project a 58% hit rate here against a book probability of 53%—a sharp spot where the odds have undervalued Soler's ability to get on base.
Mariners-Astros. Seattle's hitting .229/.378 SLG and Ks 9.2 times a game (bottom 5 in league).
Peter Lambert tonight: 94.7mph four-seam (32% usage), changeup at 40.8% whiff w/ 13.2 inches horizontal break (23% usage), and cutter as the K pitch — 18% usage with two strikes, 33% whiff.
Seattle vs similar RHP cutters in two-strike counts: .137 BA, 43% K. Vs changeups in two-strike counts: .182 BA, 39% K. Lambert's two putaway pitches and Seattle can't touch either when it matters.
Across all five of his pitch types from righties, Seattle hits .216/.401 — their average drops from the season mark but slug goes up. When they connect, it's damage.
So can a team striking out 9.2 times a game make enough contact for that to matter? Lambert reaches two strikes in 58% of plate appearances (above league avg). Seattle gets to two strikes 53% of the time vs righties. Both sides live there. And he's averaging 7.8 IP across 4 starts.
Bottom-5 K lineup + pitcher who works to two strikes + putaway pitches generating high K rates against this team — the data's tilting one way.
Kirby's side and picks dropping in Discord once lineups confirm. Link in bio.
this is now a bit old.. but the idea stays the same. We just become more accurate over time with more data injected. We are the future of sports betting, and its proven to work with MLB - join the squad in discord
The capper you're paying right now is guessing. He doesn't have a model or real data. He knows just as much about the MLB as you, and you're falling for it.
We built Scythe because we were tired of it. Our model has thousands of lines of code, hundreds of thousands of rows of Statcast data for every MLB batter, every pitcher, every matchup projected before the line is even set. The accuracy speaks for itself.
Check the screenshot.
We're not promising you win every bet. Nobody honest will. What we're promising is an edge - real, data-driven, profitable over time. Every pick posted. Nothing deleted. Ever.
We just dropped our Discord. It's free. Get in early and see what sharp MLB betting actually looks like.
https://t.co/t0PVtmTsAI
https://t.co/n0vBdhpjqp
Guess who’s back. SCYTHE
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — Bubba Chandler Outs Over 16 (+117) | 1.46u to win, 1.25u wager
We are taking the OVER on 15.5 outs for Bubba Chandler tonight — he needs to record 16 outs (roughly 5.3 innings), and the data says he clears this comfortably. Chandler's four-seam fastball sits at 99 mph with a 26% whiff rate, and he's attacking hitters with it 54% of the time, which means the Chicago Cubs will see that heat on more than half his pitches and chase it out of the zone consistently. The real damage comes from his changeup: thrown 23% of the time at 92 mph, it generates a 38% whiff rate that compounds the fastball's effectiveness and forces the Cubs to stay honest on fastball counts, creating swing-and-miss on both sides of his arsenal. Chandler's four-pitch mix keeps hitters from sitting dead-red — his slider (17% usage, 21% whiff) and curveball (6% usage, 10% whiff) both work to expand the zone, meaning the Cubs cannot gear up for any single offering. At a line of 15.5 outs, the book is implying Chandler gets pulled or implodes after 5 innings, but we see a 63.9% probability he stays in long enough to reach 16 outs versus the book's 46.1% probability — a 17.8% gap that signals significant mispricing. The Cubs' inability to consistently make contact against that fastball-changeup combination, paired with Chandler's willingness to attack early in counts, points to a clean outing where he accumulates outs at a clip that clears this total.
Did you know Bubba Chandler's changeup generates a 38% whiff rate while he throws it 23% of the time — creating a lethal secondary weapon that most scouting reports undersell?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — Nick Yorke TB U1.5 (-130) | 1.56u to win, 2.03u wager
We are taking the UNDER on Nick Yorke at 1.5 total bases tonight — we need him to record zero extra-base hits and at most one single across his projected 3.9 plate appearances. Yorke's .182 batting average against this exact pitch mix is the kill shot here: he's hitting nearly 200 points below league average, which means contact itself is the real problem, not just power. The RHP's sweeper at 80mph with a 30% whiff rate should be money in this matchup, but Yorke won't need to chase it — his 26% strikeout rate tells us he's already struggling to put the bat on anything, and that .274 slugging percentage against this arsenal shows he has zero authority when he does make contact. With only 3.9 projected plate appearances, Yorke doesn't get enough swings to luck into an extra-base hit; even if he reaches base once, the probability of a double or two singles becomes a heavy lift when he's batting .182 against this specific four-seam/sweeper/cutter combination. The book is pricing this at 56.5% for the under, but we see a 75.7% chance Yorke stays at one total base or less, giving us nearly a 20-point edge they're completely sleeping on. With the RHP deploying that four-seam 38% of the time at 92mph — where Yorke has shown he can't catch up — the at-bat script is already written.
Did you know Nick Yorke is batting .182 against this pitcher's exact arsenal?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — Ian Happ TB U1.5 (-126) | 1.09u to win, 1.37u wager
We are taking the UNDER on Ian Happ's 1.5 Total Bases tonight—he needs zero extra-base hits to cash, and the artillery lined up against him makes that outcome far more likely than the book's 55.8% suggests. Happ is hitting just .192 against this exact pitch mix, a contact rate that translates to roughly one hit per five at-bats, and with 4.2 projected plate appearances, he's looking at less than one expected hit total. The primary killer here is the four-seam fastball at 99 mph with 54% usage: Happ's .348 slugging against this arsenal means he's not turning anything into extra bases—he's a singles hitter at best against this velocity, and singles don't clear the 1.5 threshold. Compounding that weakness, the changeup appears in 23% of pitches at 92 mph with a brutal 38% whiff rate, but the real issue for Happ is that even when he does make contact against off-speed stuff, his .348 slugging tells us he lacks the bat speed to generate gap power or doubles. His 25% strikeout rate means he's also prone to empty at-bats, further suppressing his total bases accumulation across those 4.2 PAs. The book is pricing this as if Happ has a 55.8% chance of reaching two total bases—essentially one double, or two clean singles—but his .192 average and .348 slugging against this exact arsenal suggest he'll go hitless or single twice, both outcomes that lose the bet. We see a 68.6% probability that Happ finishes with zero or one total base, a clear +12.8% edge over what the market is offering.
Did you know Ian Happ is batting just .192 against this pitcher's exact pitch mix?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — Pete Crow-Armstrong TB U1.5 (-126) | 1.23u to win, 1.55u wager
We are taking the UNDER on Pete Crow-Armstrong's 1.5 total bases tonight—we see a 70.5% chance he finishes with zero or one total base, while the book is only pricing this at 55.8% probability. The foundation of this bet is Crow-Armstrong's .228 batting average against this specific pitch mix, which sits 60 points below league average and signals a fundamental incompatibility between his approach and what the mound will present. RHP's four-seam fastball (99 mph, 54% usage) is the kill shot here: Crow-Armstrong has demonstrated he struggles to barrel velocity in this zone, and when facing a pitcher who leans this heavily on heat, his lack of explosiveness becomes a liability—his .433 SLG against this arsenal is power-starved for someone who will see three-plus plate appearances. The changeup (92 mph, 23% usage, 38% whiff rate) compounds the advantage because it sits only seven ticks off the fastball; Crow-Armstrong's inability to distinguish off-speed pitches combined with his 27% strikeout rate means he's primed to chase or miss in counts where RHP can layer in breaking stuff. With 3.3 projected plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong gets enough chances for regression to hit, but not enough volume to guarantee even a single, let alone the two total bases needed to bust this ticket. The book is overweighting the possibility of a lucky contact against premium velocity when the tape clearly shows Crow-Armstrong lacks the bat control to consistently put the ball in play against sub-90 heat paired with late-breaking off-speed offerings.
Did you know Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting just .228 against this exact pitch mix?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — Jameson Taillon Outs Over 16 (+126) | 1.27u to win, 1.01u wager
We are taking the OVER on 15.5 outs for Jameson Taillon tonight—he needs to record 16 or more outs, and the underlying arsenal data makes this a clear mismatch against the Pirates lineup. Taillon's sweeper, his second-most-used offering at 16% usage, generates a 30% whiff rate, a number that immediately separates it from his four-seam fastball (16% whiff at 92 mph, 38% usage) and creates two distinct swing-and-miss threats the Pirates will struggle to square up. The cutter at 86 mph sits right in the contact zone but carries only a 12% whiff rate, forcing Pittsburgh hitters to make hard decisions between two high-velocity offerings and a pair of breaking balls that miss bats at nearly double the rate of his heater. Pittsburgh's inability to consistently barrel velocity above 90 mph means Taillon's 92 mph fastball paired with his 80 mph sweeper creates the kind of velocity separation that drives extended at-bats and weak contact, the exact recipe for outs. At 59.5% probability our model assigns, we're getting plus money at +126 on a pitch that the book has priced at just 44.2%—that's a 15.2-point gap that reflects the market undervaluing Taillon's strikeout-independent path to deep innings through contact suppression. The sweeper's 30% whiff rate on just 16% usage means it's sitting in the back pocket; when Taillon needs a swing-and-miss in critical counts, he has a weapon that works at nearly twice the rate of his primary fastball. Six innings of work at roughly 2.75 outs per inning is the baseline expectation, but Taillon's two out-of-zone breaking balls (sweeper and curveball combining for 29% usage) will generate chase rates that push him toward seven innings and 21 total outs against a lineup built for fastballs they won't see often enough.
Did you know Jameson Taillon's sweeper generates a 30% whiff rate on just 16% usage?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
✅ William Contreras stays under 1.5 total bases. +0.83u
Our model had Contreras at a .229 BA against Zack Littell's slider at 87 mph — the contact quality wasn't there for extra bases.
#Nationals #Brewers
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers — William Contreras TB U1.5 (-129) | 0.83u to win, 1.07u wager
We are taking the UNDER on William Contreras at 1.5 total bases tonight—we need him to record zero extra-base hits, and the matchup data makes that a 65.8% probability against a book that's only pricing it at 56.3%. Contreras is hitting just .229 against this right-hander's full arsenal, and with a 25% strikeout rate and 4.5 projected plate appearances, whiffs will eliminate multiple chances before he can accumulate bases. The RHP's slider sits at 87 mph with 28% usage and a 16% whiff rate, but the real damage comes from the splitter at 83 mph—thrown 27% of the time with a league-leading 23% whiff rate that compounds contact problems against an already weak .229 matchup average. Even if Contreras avoids strikeouts, his .371 slugging percentage against this specific pitch mix tells us he's not a power threat tonight; he'd need multiple hits to crack 2+ total bases, and his contact rate simply doesn't support that outcome with this arsenal in play. The book is treating this as a 56.3% probability when it's actually a 65.8% spot, likely because they're anchoring to Contreras's name value rather than the specific data that shows he's a dead pull hitter without leverage against four different off-speed looks that all play down in the zone. With the four-seam fastball at 92 mph offering only a 19% whiff rate and the sinker's 11% whiff rate limiting empty swings, Contreras will make contact just frequently enough to threaten strikeout value—but contact against this arsenal's velocity and movement profile keeps him off the scoreboard for extra bases.
Did you know William Contreras is batting .229 against this pitcher's full arsenal with a .371 slugging percentage?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays — Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 3.5 (-105) | 0.62u to win, 0.65u wager
We are taking the Minnesota Twins OVER 3.5 runs tonight against Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays. The book has this priced at 51.2% probability, but we see a 57.8% chance the Twins score at least 4 runs—a 6.5% edge that's too valuable to pass up. Max Scherzer's fastball sits at 92 mph, which is materially below the velocity threshold needed to dominate a lineup that's seen premium heat all season, and the Twins will be hunting breaking balls in counts where Scherzer leans on his slider 38.5% of the time. The critical advantage here is Scherzer's four-seam fastball carry rate of 14.8 inches—a below-average mark that invites elevated barrels and hard contact from Minnesota's power core, especially against a pitcher who's thrown 63.2 innings this season and is vulnerable to accumulation damage. Toronto's defense ranks in the bottom half of baseball, and soft-contact pitchers like Scherzer who don't generate elite whiff rates will surrender base runners at an elevated rate over the course of a full game. Our projection of 4.4 runs clears the 3.5 line by nearly a full run, driven by Scherzer's pedestrian 19.3% chase rate—a statistic that reveals hitters are making disciplined decisions against his arsenal and putting the ball in play with authority. The book is underweighting how often Max Scherzer allows hard contact when velocity drops and secondary pitches lose their effectiveness late in the season against prepared opponents.
Did you know Max Scherzer's four-seam fastball carry of 14.8 inches ranks below average for inducing weak contact?
We just dropped our Discord — it's free. Link in bio for the rest of today's picks.
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