Stuart Post

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

But the stock market doesn't always use simple arithmetic; it runs on scarcity and strategic value.
When a company has zero true competitors, investors throw out standard valuation models. Because you cannot replicate Starship (it has a multi-year head start on the entire aerospace industry) and you cannot easily replicate Tesla's fleet data, a combined company creates a massive moat.
Wall Street would likely award the company a "scarcity premium." Investors would willingly pay a massive multiple because there is literally nowhere else in the global public markets to put capital if you want to bet on the total automation of the physical world.

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

“The Ultimate Sovereign Infrastructure and AI Monopoly.”
Decided to use Gemini to explore one of Gary Blacks recent posts and it came up with this: “If SpaceX and Tesla merged, the resulting entity wouldn't just be an EV maker or a rocket company; it would be the ultimate sovereign infrastructure and AI monopoly. The market could easily value the combined entity at a premium higher than Tesla's current multiple, recognizing it as a completely unique asset class with zero true competitors.” I asked it to explain this argument in detail.
Answer:
To understand this concept deeply, you have to look past what Tesla and SpaceX currently sell (cars and rocket launches) and look at what they are building: the physical and digital nervous system for the next century. When the rebuttal calls a merged SpaceX-Tesla the "ultimate sovereign infrastructure and AI monopoly," it is describing a company that controls the three most critical pillars of the future global economy: Global Connectivity, Real-World AI, and Advanced Hardware Manufacturing.
Here is a detailed breakdown of what that combined entity looks like and why the market would treat it as a unique asset class.
1. The Ultimate Sovereign Infrastructure
"Sovereign infrastructure" means a network so vast and essential that nations depend on it, and no competitor can realistically duplicate it.
Starlink & The Mobile Web: SpaceX’s Starlink isn't just for rural internet; it is a global, low-latency data blanket covering the planet. A merged company binds this directly to Tesla. Imagine millions of autonomous Tesla vehicles, Optimus humanoid robots, and industrial energy grids permanently connected to an un-hackable, space-based network.
Bypassing the Gatekeepers: It removes reliance on traditional telecom giants (like AT&T or Verizon) or cloud monopolies (like Amazon AWS or Microsoft Azure). The combined entity owns the hardware on the ground (Tesla) and the data pipes in space (SpaceX). It becomes its own independent internet, transport, and logistics ecosystem.
2. The Real-World AI Monopoly
Many tech companies have "digital AI" (large language models that generate text or images inside a browser). A Tesla-SpaceX merger creates the undisputed king of "Real-World AI"—intelligence that interacts with the physical world.
The Compute Loop: Tesla’s massive Dojo supercomputers train neural networks using billions of miles of real-world video data.
The Physical Manifestation: That exact same "brains-to-hardware" pipeline applies to a Tesla car navigating a street, an Optimus robot working in a factory, or a SpaceX Starship autonomously landing itself on a launch pad.
Data Hegemony: No other company on Earth would have access to the sheer volume of edge-case physical data that this combined entity would collect daily from land, air, and space.
3. A "Completely Unique Asset Class"
In finance, an asset class is a grouping of similar investment vehicles (like real estate, commodities, or tech stocks). Gary Black treats a merged company as just a messy conglomerate. But the market loves a narrative shift.
If they merge, the company breaks out of traditional boxes:
It is no longer an automotive stock (which usually gets low valuation multiples because car manufacturing is low-margin and cyclical).
It is no longer a defense/aerospace contractor (which gets safe, boring multiples).
It becomes a "Sovereign Tech Index." Fund managers who want exposure to the future of humanity—space colonization, global satellite dominance, autonomous robotics, and grid-scale energy—would have exactly one stock to buy.
4. Why the Market Would Pay a Premium Multiple
Gary Black’s math says \bm{300\times} earnings (SpaceX) mixed with \bm{100\times} earnings (Tesla) averages down.

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

Enjoy

[Tennis Performances @TENPerformances]

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz, Indian Wells 2024 Semifinal.

A match played at full speed from the opening point.

Another high-quality battle between two players shaping the next era of tennis.

[Eric Bott @EricJBott]

Today in 1980, America built the world’s first data center in St. Helens, Washington.

When they turned it on, it generated power equal to 67 Nagasaki bombs, causing the following ⬇️

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

David Friedberg: El Niño Could Trigger a Global Food Crisis https://t.co/85kDU2VLSd via @YouTube

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

@phibetakitten @jamesdouma Beautiful shot. Magnificent Hawk.

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

Today, a CIA whistleblower sat before my committee and confirmed what I've said for years: government officials, including Dr. Fauci, deliberately misled the American people about the origins of COVID-19. This is not a conspiracy theory. This is sworn testimony. 🧵

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

@ChuckCook @Tesla I agree. “Not smoothed out for comfort yet.” And!! I am in rural upstate NY and we have lots of robins and sparrows along the edges of our country roads. Hard breaking for every road side bird is a safety hazard and makes FSD unusable on country roads.

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

Grok on BYD 1000 volt flash charging. https://t.co/mr5xaTeIAs

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

SpaceX Tesla merger…Who gets Paid? Excellent well reasoned video.

[Rebellionaire @Rebellionaire]

Or watch on YouTube: https://t.co/7s0X0203oq

[Gail Alfar @gailalfaratx]

Tesla builds fast cars

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Current AI custom prompt:

You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can.

Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

[Michelle Kim @michelletomkim]

Day 3 of the Musk v. Altman trial in Oakland federal courthouse. Elon Musk continues to testify, represented by his lawyer Steven Molo. US District Judge Yyvonne Gonzalez Rogers is presiding over the case.

I'm a reporter (and lawyer) covering the trial for @techreview.

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

NFG https://t.co/77sIpDLHEI

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

@phibetakitten @jamesdouma Happy Birthday James!

[Wes @wmorrill3]

also

[Genma_Jp @nymbusjp]

https://t.co/rooYL7Pul1

[Stuart Post @sdpost]

@kevinolearytv Ok. I will give it a try. Ordered.

[AI OR DIE @aiordieshow]

PI HARD starring Neil deGrasse Tyson and Elon Musk

[Curiosity @CuriosityonX]

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