Sean Cade-Suárez

Salesforce Admin, PepUp Tech Alumni.

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@libsoftiktok Why are we making this political? This is a tragedy. Please have some common sense.

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Dementia Don strikes again!

[Keith Boykin @keithboykin]

Elon Musk paid Black people to campaign for Trump in Michigan and then fired them and left them stranded in the streets when they complained about unsafe working conditions for being shipped around in the back of a U-Haul without seats or seatbelts.

https://t.co/Y4mFKJ5jLP

[Bill Madden @maddenifico]

"I did not leave Cuba to end up in another authoritarian government." 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯👇

[Headquarters @HQNewsNow]

RFK Jr.: Yes, I would sign a national abortion ban

[Malcontent News @MalcontentmentT]

United States POTUS Election Prediction 3 Scenarios:

For reference, I only missed Georgia in 2020 and got the split in Maine and Georgia wrong.

https://t.co/Rm70Y66qxd

Scenario 1 - Image 1
The Selzer Iowa poll and the Kansas Fort Hays State University poll are accurate.
Outcome: Harris landslide

Selzer is the gold standard for polling going back almost two decades, which is why her Iowa poll showing Harris up by 3 points has sent shockwaves through election watchers. Last week's Fort Hayes State University poll, another very reliable source, showed a 9—to 15-point swing against Trump compared to 2020. Kansas is not in play, but both of these polls are ominous signs for Trump.

In this scenario, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida go to Harris, and Ohio and Texas become toss-ups.

356-125-57 - Harris wins in a landslide (it doesn't matter where the 57 toss-ups land).

Scenario 2 - Image 2
The Selzer Iowa poll and the Kansas Fort Hays State University poll aren't as accurate as credited but still show a 3-point and 6-12-point lead, respectively.
Outcome: Harris wins.

In this scenario, the Selzer poll is off to the edge of the margin of error, as are some of the other reliable polls that dropped in the last 72 hours. In this scenario, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina go to Harris, Georgia and Iowa become toss-ups, and Texas, Florida, and Arizona go to Trump.

293-223-22- Harris wins with a mandate (it doesn't matter where the 22 toss-ups land).

Scenario 3 - Image 3
The Selzer Iowa poll and the Kansas Fort Hays State University poll are flat-out wrong, and the rest fall within the current aggregates.
Outcome: Harris wins without a mandate.

In this scenario, you end up where the polls were pointing on Friday.

274-234-32- Harris wins (it doesn't matter where the 32 toss-ups land), but Harris has no room for a state not to land where the models project.

What do I think?

I think the results land somewhere between scenarios 1 and 2.

Why?

National polls don't matter. This has been explained repeatedly since 2000. Due to the Electoral College, the only way national polls would matter is if one candidate was up by +5 or more in the aggregates. Neither are. They don't matter.

1️⃣ When you dive into the methodology of published polls, women are almost universally underrepresented. Early voting data is showing a major shift in the number of female voters. Eliminating Roe v. Wade has been an electoral catastrophe for Republicans. Don't believe that? Look at what happened in Kansas in 2023. Abortion rights are on the ballot in 10 states, including Florida.

2️⃣ Trump's tariff message is dead on arrival with farmers. More small farms went bankrupt during the Trump presidency than in any other four-year period since the Great Depression. Tariffs destroyed small farms. Reproductive rights for women, tariffs for small farmers.

3️⃣ As I told ya' all, Madison Square Garden was a bigger disaster for the Trump campaign than the Epstein revelations. I know, when looked at logically, that doesn't make any sense, and I agree, but here we are. This is why the Epstein story got parked (mostly). It would be a distraction. You may disagree with that, but look at when it was released and the reaction (meh).

4️⃣ The Saturday Night Live episode before election day was brutal for Trump. You don't think that matters? The writers know the atmosphere. In 2016, they skewered Hillary Clinton. In 2020, they skewered Trump and Biden equally as a fight between two old men. The theme of SNL the weekend before voting has been a predictor of the outcome.

5️⃣ Pollsters have Florida wrong. I'll die on this hill. Rick Scott is very unpopular and up for reelection. Reproductive rights and legalized marijuana are on the ballot. The issues of spiraling insurance costs, property taxes, and condo fees, and the housing crisis are glued to Desantis. Desantis' war against Disney was unpopular and a political boondoggle. You have 1.1 million very angry Puerto Ricans activated. In scenario one, Florida goes blue; in scenario two, it still goes red but very light pink. And I think even in scenario three, it goes light pink.

6️⃣ Weekend reports from even deeply red rural areas that aren't in play are showing hours-long waits to vote with a strong female demographic. Anecdotally, the chatter I'm hearing is undecided voters are tipping over to Harris.

7️⃣ The positioning and messaging from Trump and his surrogates, as well as our Twitter overlord, have shifted from one of easy victory to election disinformation and fear of a loss. If they believed they were winning, the political message would be about the hopelessness of voting against Trump. On the point of disinformation, the results in Moldova, where Russia spent an eyewatering $121 per voter to try to sway the election, and that's what has been tracked down publicly, bodes well for the United States.

8️⃣ Trump saying RFK Jr. would head up the FDA and CDC has landed with a thud. RFK Jr. released a video showing the "poison" that he would remove if Trump is elected, and that includes Doritos and Captain Crunch. People - even Trump eats one or two bags of Doritos a day. We haven't dropped dead from the COVID vaccine. Our 5G coverage didn't get magically better. We aren't magnets. Bill Gates has downloaded our software updates. Don't think this is true? Go spend some time on GenZ TikTok; there is a huge WTF, you are not taking my Doritos and Mountain Dew outcry. This isn't a voter issue!!! Ya, It shouldn't be. Here we are. Oh, but he doesn't mean it. Remember, RFK Jr. ran on a platform of an "honest outsider" who will tell it like it is. They're taking him very seriously and what you feel doesn't matter.

9️⃣ Jill Stein and Butch Ware saying aloud that they are transphobic, antiabortion, and are only on the ticket to elect Trump killed what little support they had. Green Parties in 16 countries wrote a joint letter calling Stein to drop out, declaring she doesn't represent the Green Party. Fun fact: after Hurricanes Helene and Milton, the Green Party (at a national level - the NC Green Party did) never issued a statement about climate change, and no national representatives visited the impacted areas. I called this four months ago. Pro-Palestinian white leftists trying to shame POC voters into supporting Stein because their lived experiences don't matter over Palestinians was an absolute propaganda disaster. The backlash among POC and their supporters was huge.

What about the House of Representatives?

Mike Johnson (R-LA) will go down as one of the worst House Speakers in history. The 118th Congress did nothing and was ruled by chaos. Both parties are fed up with him. With Lara Trump and Michael Whatley in charge of the RNC, the worst-case scenario for down-ballot fundraising happened. The funds were funneled directly to Donald Trump, and down-ballot campaigns were starved. The grassroots ground game, which is vital in United States politics, was a flop. Outsourcing to billionaires like Musk was a failure.

I think the Democrats will pick up 18 to 24 seats, landing around 230-205 when it's all done. But Speaker Hakeem Jeffries won't have it any easier. Two or three of those Democratic seats will be filled by Republicans who ran as Trojan Horse "Democrats" in the primary and may even switch parties. You can expect Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Pramila Jayapal to be as obstructionist as their GOP counterparts, such as Gozar, Gates, and Taylor-Greene.

What about the Senate?

Democrats have to defend double the number of seats compared to Republicans, and this was known four years ago.

Arizona: Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake
Kari Lake is a deeply unpopular multiple-failed candidate and election denier. Arizona is openly done with her. Ruben Gallego wins. Krysten Sinema was a Democrat in name, but in the second half of her term, she voted more in alignment with Republicans. Technical, this is a net zero for either party, but Gallego will be more effective than Sinema, who was Democrat in name only.

Florida: Rick Scott vs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Rick Scott is also unpopular (not Kari Lake unpopular). If I'm right about Florida polls being off more than any other state, Scott is in the political fight of his loss. Right now, it's a coin toss.

Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan
I wouldn't call myself a Larry Hogan fan, but I did see him as a moderate. The revelation of years of fiscal malfeasance was personally a tough blow. I think this hurts them, and as it is, the polls show that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks wins. No change in total seats.

Montana: Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy
It is very unusual for an incumbent to lose a Senate reelection, especially when that incumbent has been very successful in getting pork projects to their state. Tester is in trouble, but Tim Sheehy has a few issues. First, the issue of stolen valor, but among MAGA voters, that doesn't matter. Here is the bigger problem, and this one is wild. Montana passed a voter ID law that is backfiring. It turns out that 50K to 60K registered voters are extremely antigovernment. To the point they don't have IDs, state or federal, and their homes, businesses, and property are in their wives' names, so the 'government can't track 'em. But that also means they can't vote. There were mumbles of trying to modify the ID law in Montana, but it was too late. So it appears the state will lose around 30K reliable GOP voters (no bloc shows up 100%). I think Sheehy wins, a GOP +1.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer vs Dan Osborn
If the Ft. Hayes University Poll is correct or close to correct, Deb Fischer, the GOP incumbent, will lose. Dan Osborn is running as an independent on an "every man" platform - I'm a veteran, blue collar, I'm from Nebraska, I get up and do an honest day's work - I get you. He is doing much better than anyone expected. If he were to win, it is unclear which party he would caucus with. For me, this seat is too close to call.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreneo
If the Selzer poll in Iowa is right, Sherrod Brown will be safe. Personal assessment: Moreneo is a terrible candidate, and it is shocking that he is competitive, but there you go. Coin toss.

Texas: Ted Cruz vs Colin Allred
Cruz is the least-liked incumbent up for vote in the Senate. Texans don't like him, MAGA doesn't like him, and the state-level GOP is only holding its nose and breath for him. Democrats definitely don't like him. He is another candidate who, if the Selzer and Ft. Hayes polls are even half-right, will be out. I believe Allred will squeak out a win; Democrats will pick up a seat.

West Virginia: Glenn Elliott vs Jim Justice
Two things made Ted Cruz the least-liked incumbent up for reelection. Krysten Sinema (R-AZ) and Joe Manchin (I-WV) did not seek reelection. Jim Justice is (was) the governor of West Virginia and has a John Kennedy (R-LA) quality to him. Foghorn Leghorn in his speech, mannerisms, and intelligence. Which is to say, on the surface, he is likable, but he is not a man you want as a Senator because I say boy, he's about as sharp as a bowling ball. Bad news - he's going to be a senator - another GOP pickup. I say bad news not because of the loss of the seat, Justice isn't qualified to be a Senator.

49-51 in favor of Republicans or 50-50, which, with a Harris victory, favors Dems but is unlikely to get much done. If the Selzer-Ft. Hayes polls are right, and the larger polls are off by 3 to 5 points, then a 51-49 in favor of the Dems is possible but unlikely.

The big wildcard. If women voters voting against Trump protest vote down the ticket over reproductive rights, all bets are off.

Final Prediction

POTUS: Kamala Harris with a strong mandate
House: Democrats 230-205 (2 or 3 Democrat seats will flip to GOP by summer 2025)
Senate: GOP Controlled: 46 Democrats/3 Independents/51 Republicans

Will There be Unrest or Violence
Localized? Yes.

Donald Trump knows this is it. He can't run in 2028; his cognitive decline is visible. That's not true! Go look at his speeches in 2016 compared to 2024. It's very visible. He's showing textbook sundowning, and here's another sign. While his diet is known to be that of a 15-year-old gamer, his daily caloric intake is down - a lot. That's a strong sign of physical decline in the elderly. Trump is looking at the very real possibility of going to prison, and the money train will dwindle.

If Harris wins in a landslide, the billionaire class will do everything they can to fund efforts to overturn the results. Our Twitter overlord will share conspiracy theories and likely call for and incite violence.

Here's the good news. After spending several years covering the extreme left and right in the United States, I have learned that the extreme right is a lot of talk. However, when it comes time to execute their plans, larger efforts fall flat.

The far left tends to work in smaller groups and is better at operational security, while the far right is really bad at it.

I believe that unrest and acts of violence will be contained to what we've seen so far but on a larger scale. Disruption at polling places, ballot boxes being damaged, small-scale attempts at ballot stuffing, and turnstile voting that won't impact national races (but could impact local races). Fist fights and threats.

As the reality of a Harris win settles in, expect larger protests and for Trump and his surrogates to do three things.

1️⃣Get very shrill about election irregularities without evidence.
2️⃣Call for protests and thinly veiled calls for violence.
Beg for money that will just go to Trump and not legal efforts.
3️⃣Expect to see counts and recounts disrupted, ballots challenged, and attempts to throw out expat and military votes.

How far this goes will depend on Harris' margin of victory and how far others in the GOP are willing to go. If there is a Harris landslide, the repudiation of Trumpism can't be denied, even within what was once the GOP. If some within the Trump faithful start to abandon ship because they're reading the room, the transfer of power will be bumpy but better than in 2020.

If they double, triple, and quadruple down, nothing is guaranteed.

One Last Thing
This is the bad news. Even if there is a Harris landslide. Even if the House tips over to the Democrats. Even if the Senate somehow ends at 50-50 or 51-50 in favor of the Democrats, the anger, vitriol, and rage don't end.

Poland went right to the edge of the abyss and started down a Georgian (country), Slovakian, and Hungarian black hole. The country pulled back, but the echoes of that march to a populist government still continue to this day. It will take a generation to undo the bureaucrats, judges, and decisions put in place over the last 8 to 16 years. And during that whole time, Theil, Musk, and Koch won't go quietly away. They will continue to attempt to push the United States into an oligarchy.

We're more than halfway there as it is. If you're already exhausted, buckle up because this is, regrettably, our political future for decades to come.

[Victor Shi @Victorshi2020]

So proud of these young voters and all the young voters out there who are turning out to the polls and making their voices heard. They are our present leaders & seeing this level of civic engagement is incredible.

Remember - stay in line! And here’s a hotline if you need.

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

NOW!!!!!!!!

[Democratic Wins Media @DemocraticWins]

BREAKING: In a stunning announcement, Donald Trump just announced he is going to close down the Department of Education. Donald Trump wants to stop our children from getting an education. Retweet so all Americans see this.

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@MikeASperrazza @harris_wins Most racist****

[Democratic Wins Media @DemocraticWins]

BREAKING: In a stunning moment, attendees of the Trump rally (however few that were there to begin with) have begun to trickle out while Donald Trump is speaking. Retweet so all Americans see this and know even Republicans are fed up with Trump’s BS.

[Resistance Cat @cateyes651]

@acnewsitics The cheese has officially fallen off his cracker.

[Alex Cole @acnewsitics]

This is the day the Trump campaign died.

It's over.

[Bill DeMayo @BDeMayo]

@acnewsitics 🎶So bye bye
Orange American Guy
You're too heavy and too sweaty
And your brain seems to be fried🎶

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@meltriahaway Dreamlover!

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@Harada_TEKKEN Akira Yuki >>>

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@ooplol22 Diamonds and Dancefloors lol

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

Joe Biden has been one of America’s most consequential presidents, as well as a dear friend and partner to me. Today, we’ve also been reminded – again – that he’s a patriot of the highest order.

Here’s my full statement: https://t.co/Bs2ZumFXxe

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@lovelanguageari I’ll Be Lovin’ You Long Time

[Sean Cade-Suárez @seancade100]

@halsey