Sean Sharif | qfilabs

cofounder at @qfilabs

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

We can't say for sure, because it's hard to even define what "not going so well" means at this stage, and that's actually the paradox at the heart of the AI boom. Nobody knows whether all this massive spending will eventually pay off.

Look at CoreWeave's earnings yesterday. Revenue grew 168%, yet it plans to spend up to $39 billion on infrastructure this year alone.

Bitcoin miners are essentially entering the same gamble. They're just using their Bitcoin to buy some of the chips at the table.

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

MARA's earnings just added another piece to this story.

The company sold another 13,597 BTC after September, bringing its total sales this year to over 40,000 BTC.

It used $750 million to repay Bitcoin-backed loans, with more BTC sales potentially ahead as it expands into AI infrastructure.

Bitcoin is becoming a source of funding for the miners' next business.

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

Bitcoin miners are selling and pledging BTC to finance their AI expansion. I examined the filings to see how this shift is reshaping the industry and what this week's earnings could reveal. https://t.co/nvXMzNHj1L

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

Note No. 12: In the Value Zone, Watching for the Rally

Bitcoin is 15% below its $86.6K September high, and buyers of the past three months are underwater, yet past recoveries mark this as a value zone. It is still short of all six on-chain signs that preceded past final rallies to new highs, most by a wide margin.

READ MORE 👇

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

Bitcoin miners are selling and pledging BTC to finance their AI expansion. I examined the filings to see how this shift is reshaping the industry and what this week's earnings could reveal. https://t.co/nvXMzNHj1L

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

Bitcoin fell from $80.4k to $75k, I checked who was selling. The broad selling came from folks who bought in the last two months at $81.5k on average, and they still hold 1.74M BTC, all underwater. If we bounce, a lot of them could sell on the way back up to $81k

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

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[qfilabs @qfilabs]

On 11 October, with Bitcoin at $83.3K, we named recent buyers' average cost as the lower edge of the range we saw ahead. This week price came back to it.
If that support gives way, our model marks the next one near $70.2K, the lower edge of a thin cluster of recent buyers' coins.

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

@galendruke Kalshi's marketing strategy is ridiculous. They're trying to compete with pollsters when they operate on a more interesting layer. Polls show what voters say they'll do. Prediction markets put a price on the outcome.

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

@Kalshi So did the "power of markets" see today's crash coming, or is it just good at predicting a Republican win in Wyoming?

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

Why did Bitcoin zig-zag after the Binance hack?
1/ It dipped to about $76K early on 4 November, then jumped above $80K in a short squeeze, as about 1.6K BTC of bets against the price were forced shut in four hours.
Forced buying is fast, but it doesn't fix what sits underneath.

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

I don’t even know where to start with how ridiculous this claim is. The most obvious flaw is that the people placing these bets can read the same polls and expert models you’re comparing them against. Experts can trade too.

You’re acting like “the market” and “the experts” are two separate teams 😂

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

@CryptoKaleo Come on man, that chart includes a bunch of easy calls. How many close races is that 77% actually based on?

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

@Kalshi Wait, where’s the 77% coming from? The chart shows scores for hundreds of races, not just the close ones. How many close races are we actually talking about here?

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

Note No. 11: Bitcoin After the Shock

We checked about 170 hacks, collapses and scams since 2018: a month later Bitcoin was lower after 81 and higher after 89.

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

Bitcoin Note 11: “Bitcoin After the Shock"

The recent Binance hack landed in a market already losing strength. Recent buyers are still realising losses, but a bounce near their average cost and a short squeeze in futures point towards a shallow correction and prolonged sideways trading.

Link👇

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

Roy Cooper wins North Carolina, the first Senate seat to flip tonight.

Democrats need 4 more for a majority, counting seats that are safe but not yet called. Republicans need 10.

Market odds give Democrats a 97% chance of control.

Watch live: https://t.co/MHveMds4ml

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

@BullTheoryio https://t.co/3YpgMhZR4v

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

The 12 races deciding the Senate, live.
#Midterms2026
https://t.co/MHveMdsCbT

[qfilabs @qfilabs]

How Low Can Bitcoin Go in an Early Bull Market?

Bitcoin just slipped below $80k. We measured how far price strayed from the True Market Mean in the last three recoveries to find the normal range, and where today sits in it.

READ MORE 👇

[Sean Sharif | qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant]

Bitcoin climbed back above the average price recent buyers paid on August 19 and has stayed there for 72 days, but at $76.8K today it is only about 1% above their $75.8K cost, the closest it has come to slipping back under since then.

If that line holds, the people who bought over the last five months stay in profit, and if it breaks they are back underwater.

That's the line to watch.

[cryptovizart | qfilabs @cryptovizart]

Are you tired of the non-stop perma-bull on-chain newsletters out there?

Maybe it’s time to read our @qfilabs substack, specifically the one we published a couple of weeks ago.

A pause before advance? 👇🏼