Search results for chourio

Chourio has taken a real step forward in quality of contact: 91.7 mph EV, 47.0% hard-hit, 12.6% barrels, .339 xwOBA and .474 xSLG. His xSLG is up 48 points from 2025, his barrel rate is up almost three percentage points, and his hard-hit rate is up nearly five points. The pitch-family splits are particularly useful: Four-seam: .341 AVG / .626 SLG / .435 wOBA Sinker: .309 / .457 / .382 Cutter: .267 / .511 / .359 Changeup: .280 / .500 / .346 Curveball: .348 / .522 / .387 That is unusually broad coverage. He is not just a fastball hunter who falls apart the moment Abbott changes shape. Abbott’s biggest issue for this prop is that his profile is not built around overwhelming Chourio with swing-and-miss. From the matchup sheet Abbott is at only 18.1% K and 22.4% whiff, with a 10.5% walk rate, .338 xwOBA and .432 xSLG allowed. He can certainly win individual plate appearances, but the underlying profile does not scream “suppress a hot right-handed impact bat four times.” Chourio also enters in excellent recent form. MLB currently has him at .348/.361/.652 over his last 15 games, with six homers in that span. Reuters confirms he had four hits with a homer on Tuesday and three hits with another homer Wednesday against Chicago. The only real negative is his 34.3% chase rate. Abbott can steal outs if he gets ahead and expands with breaking stuff. Chourio’s 23.2% K rate is manageable, but his plate discipline is not elite. That is the main failure mechanism: one strikeout, one weak ground ball, then Milwaukee turns the lineup over before he gets enough quality opportunities. Jackson Chourio O1.5 Total Bases -107 — B+/A- I estimate roughly 54–57% for 2+ TB if he is hitting near the top of the order, which would imply fair odds around -117 to -133. At -107, there is still room. Best price: +100 or better Playable: -105 to -115 Thin: -120 to -125 Pass: roughly -130+