seb

🐇

[Wizard Of SoHo (🍷,🍷) @wizardofsoho]

This is my current view on the markets from all angles:

1) Macro :
Macro is in a tough position. On one hand you have the FED which is trying to focus on its dual mandate of max employment and price stability and then you got the president in a trade war with the world and also cutting down the government.
Trade war results in inflation so FED has to fight against that by not cutting anymore as they have said many times. But at the same time government cuts will result in lower employment. Inflation has been coming down but has become slightly sticky recently. The prints arent bad enough for the FED to make a move but the fed definitely is not looking to cut anytime soon. The economy is still strong with payrolls printing higher. A strong economy might be good enough to absorb the trade war possibly but this would be the first economy dependant market in over 30 years. No stimulus, no cuts, just pure ecnomic strength. Economic strenght run market is how .. this market is.. its a tough market. Its where only the best survive. A stimulus or quantitative easing market lets everyone print but an economy only market lets only the best of the best print because its a tough market. Not everything goes up. Asset allocation, picking the right stocks and coins, all fo that becomes extremely important. Shorting and longing makes you the money not just longing. Its what you are seeing right now in most risk assets.

Stocks: Stocks are basically being run up by a few tech stocks with NVDA being the leader. It is NOT like the stock market of previous years where everything went up. Basically DATA as a commodity is going up and the DATA owners and their tools are going up. Any hiccuph in the 7 tech stocks and the entire market comes down. Even with a blockbuster earnings report NVDA is now lower on the day and taking entire stock market with it. This happens every cycle, Exxon was the leader at one point and entire market moved with it and price of oil. Same thing. Stocks are definitely up a lot and market is seeing a lot of funds slowly unwinding their positions that are up massively. As tradewar intensifies we will see these tech stocks that are global companies take a hit as they are dependant on globalization whereas trump is more America first.

Crypto:
This is the tough part. Crypto got its first CRYPTO president. But in turn it resulted in max extraction by bad actors rather than a push up. We saw the market front run the presidency with the inauguration being a massive sell the news event basically setting absolute market top around when TRUMP coin came out. Crypto (outside of BTC) had minimal inflows and whatever existing sand that was being pushed aside got extracted out. Maybe 20% of that is left? This is why ALTS havent moved. The money that goes into Altcoins has gone to memecoins this cycle. There is no net inflow that comes from trickle down economics as majority of the inflows is through ETF buying and not CEX spot buying. You have to forget about how old cycles were where you had bitcoin run and then you saw alts run. Bitcoin went up almost 2x of previous highs and only one altcoin hit its previous high (solana) and that only hapened because of the massive casino they had. Once the funds ran out and money was extracted out of the casino you saw Solana come down 50% very quicly whereas BTC was dwon 20% at best.
Funds, money manager that bought bitcoin are dumping it now because of overall market uncertainty. Funds were buying the ETF aggresively into trump presidency because they thought we would not get a trade war most likely. They called Trumps bluff and lost. When a fund derisks they first derisk their riskiest assets and in this case it would be Crypto-Bitcoin. So Bitcoin takes the hit the hardest and usually front runs everything. Its usually, Crypto, Stocks, credit bonds, foreign government bonds and they buy US bonds or money market instruments basically cash. This is why crypto will usually dump before stocks do.

Overall it seems like everyone (smart money, funds, etc) are waiting for trade war uncertainty to be gone before deploying back into risky assets like crypto. This would mean essentially figured out if the tarrifs actually go into play or not. Right now we are about to be at trade war with europe, china india along as Mexico and Canada tarrifs go in April 2nd. Now if it gets pushed, then the uncertainty gets pushed. My personal hope is this uncertainty is gone as Trump figures out deal by end of the year and then in the new year funds deploy back. This could also be done sooner ofcourse and I would deploy aggresively back into the market. now comes the question if its not solved thi syear what happens? nothing... We push to next year... This is exactly how 2018 was... Literally no difference. Look at markets then and get a better understanding but this time there is no Fed to the rescue at all.

I am 70% stables at the moment. I have sold all stocks. I am mostly in cash and money market short term interest funds. Have some small degen accounts to play leverage but expected value has been negative for longs.. I like being long long term bonds or ETF TLT.

Ofcourse the moment resolution comes in macro I would look to deploy asap as I am sure all other smart money would.

Weekly wizdom

[seb @seb__xyz]

@frizzaud @goodalexander @0xSisyphus Ca?

[seb @seb__xyz]

@1CrypticPoet @base Why

[iknowgoodthings @iknowgoodthings]

You know this space probably wouldn't go to 0 if you all backed and supported actual builders and good projects instead of serials scammers and ruggers.

You know that, right?

[seb @seb__xyz]

@kanji1n @artsch00lreject @not_gay_fish Speculation?

[seb @seb__xyz]

@hercul_eth Lmao

[lyxe @cryptolyxe]

aight so the bullrun lasted two days

[seb @seb__xyz]

@larpalt @mercvnti66 Do you think we have officially topped?

[Wizard Of SoHo (🍷,🍷) @wizardofsoho]

You cant even dump your Trump coin lmfao cuz Solana is broken.

holy shyt lmfao all our money trapped

[seb @seb__xyz]

@1solinjan2025 What happened

[seb @seb__xyz]

@wockyzombie @trading_axe Legend

[CryptoData @TheCryptoData]

Everyone's imagination is going wild right now. Trump launched a memecoin, that means:

- SBR (already had meeting with Saylor and top crypto execs)
- 0% cap gains on US based crypto companies
- Ross Ulbricht SHOULD get commuted day one (more memes)
- Many more etfs (SOL, XRP, LTC, etc.)
- SOL ETF will get approved sooner rather than later (23d and 25th deadlines)
- Gary Gensler is already out
- XRP will beat its SEC case
- FOMC meeting Jan 31st (expecting them to end QT which will kickstart alt season)
- FTX refunds coming in March
- All of the top crypto execs working with Trump in their crypto department

There's so many catalysts it's hard to keep track. All of these are nearly a certainty now with what's occurred today. And the way people buy the hype, I feel like a wave is coming bigger than most can comprehend 🐂

[seb @seb__xyz]

@wockyzombie @trading_axe Wut mc?

[seb @seb__xyz]

@OwlTradess Absolute insanity

[seb @seb__xyz]

@0xikaros Why

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

convinced ive entered another reality at this point

[seb @seb__xyz]

@kwantxbt @cryptopotamus__ @BiancaFortier Could we get an update for Sol please?

[seb @seb__xyz]

@SOLsesame How much sol and how did you know to do that lol

[seb @seb__xyz]

@Bmoreblockchain @123skely Thx for explaining. Ggs