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That's just the beginning.
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Everyone prices $BTC drawdowns in dollars, where they decay every cycle.
Price them in gold and that breaks. They don't decay. They cluster.
Every cycle has bottomed in the same band: 2015, 2018, COVID, 2022. All between -65% and -80%.
We're at -65% now.
Everyone prices $BTC drawdowns in dollars, where they decay every cycle.
Price them in gold and that breaks. They don't decay. They cluster.
Every cycle has bottomed in the same band: 2015, 2018, COVID, 2022. All between -65% and -80%.
We're at -65% now.
Everyone treats a negative Sharpe ratio as a "buy the fear" signal.
Across $BTC's entire history, when the 180D Sharpe goes negative, forward alpha vs holding:
30D: -2.9%
90D: -17.7%
180D: -14.6%
At this timescale, Sharpe is momentum, not value. Weakness begets weakness.
It's negative right now, at -1.10.
But the 365D Sharpe (currently -1.25) is flashing the opposite signal. Resolving that contradiction is the interesting part.
Full breakdown below 👇
The Same Signal, Two Opposite Answers https://t.co/BQSK114X98
Everyone treats a negative Sharpe ratio as a "buy the fear" signal.
Across $BTC's entire history, when the 180D Sharpe goes negative, forward alpha vs holding:
30D: -2.9%
90D: -17.7%
180D: -14.6%
At this timescale, Sharpe is momentum, not value. Weakness begets weakness.
It's negative right now, at -1.10.
But the 365D Sharpe (currently -1.25) is flashing the opposite signal. Resolving that contradiction is the interesting part.
Full breakdown below 👇
bitcoin:native supply in loss is at historical bear market bottom levels currently.
Track this chart for free: https://t.co/Nh1GlmKdLd
bitcoin:native supply in loss is at historical bear market bottom levels currently.
Playing out exactly as anticipated.
$BTC volatility is at peak levels. I am expecting the market to digest this for a while and consolidate.
It is rare that high vol is followed by more high vol.
That said, this is purely expectation setting for us. We have been in cash since 77k.
Track this chart, and our systems: https://t.co/Nh1GlmKdLd
Playing out exactly as anticipated.
$BTC volatility is at peak levels. I am expecting the market to digest this for a while and consolidate.
It is rare that high vol is followed by more high vol.
That said, this is purely expectation setting for us. We have been in cash since 77k.
June is seasonally one of $BTC's higher-vol months.
The level beneath that is the interesting part: what vol does after an extreme low.
May is currently reading at 27% normalised vol, basically as quiet as Bitcoin gets. In this dataset, every time volatility compressed to these levels, the next month expanded.
They vary in magnitude - sometimes +10pts, sometimes a doubling, but the direction has been right 7/7 times.
Small sample, but if the pattern holds June won't be a quiet one.
bitcoin:native supply in loss just pushed back above 40%.
Now at 41.3%.
Historically, this zone clusters around major bottoms (boxes). When this much supply goes underwater, you're usually deep in capitulation territory.
It's not a precise timing tool, it can stay elevated, even grind higher as price chops down further.
But the setup is coming. A bottom could be near.
bitcoin:native supply in loss just pushed back above 40%.
Now at 41.3%.
Historically, this zone clusters around major bottoms (boxes). When this much supply goes underwater, you're usually deep in capitulation territory.
It's not a precise timing tool, it can stay elevated, even grind higher as price chops down further.
But the setup is coming. A bottom could be near.
Despite $BTC's quick move to the downside, we really haven't seen that much movement in technical valuation.
The market looks pretty split despite $BTC weakness, with $HYPE, $NEAR and $XLM showing strength.
Could more downside be on the cards?
June has been pretty interesting so far 😂
Track this chart: https://t.co/Nh1GlmKdLd
Despite $BTC's quick move to the downside, we really haven't seen that much movement in technical valuation.
The market looks pretty split despite $BTC weakness, with $HYPE, $NEAR and $XLM showing strength.
Could more downside be on the cards?
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