Burry always timestamps the crash a year early, not because he’s wrong, but because he reacts on the first derivative of the imbalance.
He moves the moment CAPEX begins outrunning GDP, when corporate investment goes parabolic while real economic output lags behind.
That’s the setup, not the detonation.
The actual breaking point, the moment every major bubble in modern history has snapped, is when CAPEX stops accelerating and GDP finally surges to meet it.
When GDP goes vertical to close the gap, that’s not “strength”…
That’s the system exhausting its final expansion.
Bubbles don’t burst at the top of CAPEX.
They burst when GDP catches the runaway CAPEX curve and the economy can no longer support the illusion.
That’s the moment the cycle buckles.
And only a handful of people on earth even know what they’re looking at.