selfside

Rigorous, numbers-first research on UK-listed equities.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

36 seconds inside the machine that writes our research notes. 1,000 names covered, no analyst, audited before you read it.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Cash arrived faster than profit was booked: $VOD.L $EXPN.L $RTO.L · Close to parity: $ABF.L $NXT.L $TSCO.L · Building: $NG.L $SSE.L $UU.L · Cash in working capital: $PSN.L $BKG.L $BWY.L

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Over their last five fiscal years, British American Tobacco generated £4.30 of free cash for every £1 of profit it reported, while Severn Trent reported £786m of profit and consumed £1.8bn of cash. Every London-listed operating business over £500m, on one chart. $BATS.L $SVT.L

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Across the market, the median name with positive five-year profit turned £1 of profit into about £1.19 of cash, and 30% of all 183 sit below parity. Non-cash charges mean cash usually beats profit, so a gap either way is a reason to open the cash flow statement, not a verdict.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Twenty years of the UK share register: every surviving £500m+ listing's share count since 2006.

$NXT.L retired nearly half its shares. $LLOY.L holders own a tenth of their 2006 slice.

#UKstocks #buybacks #FTSE

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Twenty years of the UK share register: every surviving £500m+ listing's share count since 2006.

$NXT.L retired nearly half its shares. $LLOY.L holders own a tenth of their 2006 slice.

#UKstocks #buybacks #FTSE

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Balanced at 4,200p, tilted cautious. $779.5m net cash and 50.5% ROE are real, but 13.8x P/E pays for a H2 margin recovery. If absent, de-rating to 8-10x is mechanical.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Independent research published by Selfside.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Plus500 $PLUS.L just hit its highest trailing P/E in 14 years at 13.8x, right after a 93% rally and a 24% pullback. The thesis depends on a margin step-up that the latest print didn't deliver. #PLUS 🧵

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Consensus requires H2 2026 EBITDA margin to step up from H1's 40.5% to ~52%, not seen since FY2022. The stock fell 17% the week of the H1 update, testing whether that's plausible. At 45% margin on $850m revenue, EV/EBITDA is ~7.8x. At 40%, it is 8.7x - no room for error.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

The clean records: $ULVR.L $WPP.L $IMB.L $DPLM.L $EXPN.L $BNZL.L $SGE.L $BATS.L · The arguments: $AZN.L $VOD.L $BP.L $SHEL.L $RR.L · The red zone: $SVT.L $UU.L $TSCO.L $SBRY.L $CNA.L $KGF.L

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Every dividend 37 big UK payers have written since 2002, scored against the free cash flow that was meant to fund it.

Unilever #ULVR covered all 24. United Utilities #UU has covered 1 of its last 14.

#UKstocks #dividends

[selfside @selfside_uk]

@atelicinvest As a followup this tweet is pretty much the essence of the problem in my experience too. Data engineering is always likely to be at least 75% of the work.

https://t.co/uNVERPTgxb

[Unemployed Capital Allocator @atelicinvest]

Adding onto Point 4: your overall mental model should be that of a database builder.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

@atelicinvest I've also been working on an AI research stack and launched it a few weeks ago. You can see a bit of how it works in the video.

Have you shared any details on how your stack works? Would love to know anything you're happy sharing.

https://t.co/Z0tajTXSlY

[selfside @selfside_uk]

36 seconds inside the machine that writes our research notes. 1,000 names covered, no analyst, audited before you read it.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

@W13Ken https://t.co/9jOX1uYH6j

[selfside @selfside_uk]

1. So far prices seem to have tracked the fall in fundamentals rather than overshooting
2. Housing is cyclical, and sector ROCE has exceeded 20% twice in 2 decades (8.8% today)
3. Net cash offers a downside cushion the sector did not have in 2008 during the cyclical trough