Paul

Options Markets not financial advice

[Paul @sellthefear]

Haven't traded energy for a while, maybe we'll see some weakness this week to get into some short puts working.

[Paul @sellthefear]

@amitisinvesting Holding a bunch of short puts on $IGV , holding nice.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Not every trade needs to be exciting. Sold $XLP Oct 16 80 puts @ 0.54

Consumer staples. The quiet stuff that pays the bills.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Sold the $GLW Aug 28 135 puts @ 0.61

Two weeks to expiry, breakeven $134.39. Short dated premium on a name holding its trend.

[Paul @sellthefear]

New position: sold $CSCO Dec 18 82.5 puts @ 0.57

Long runway on this one, 127 days. Happy to own the stock at $81.93 if it comes in. Until then the clock works for me.

[Paul @sellthefear]

@DarkMiner bet.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Nobody's watching steel. $NUE just printed the top signal score on my board: 86.2 🔩

Selling 260/250 put spread, Sep 18. $2.55 credit, risk $745.

Every signal bullish, breakout targeting $380, +21% vs SPX in a month. MS, BMO, Wells all raised PTs the same day. Earnings Oct 28 clean runway.

[Paul @sellthefear]

$XLV Defensive put selling heading into weakness.

[Paul @sellthefear]

You can sell options for income or you can sell volatility and get paid for taking on risk.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Watching IWM for the past few days, I will be selling premium this week.

[Paul @sellthefear]

HLT

Quietest setup today, and worth a look.
IV Rank 55, Signal Neutral. Looks boring on the surface.
But HV is contracting hard: HV30 25%, HV10 18%. Stock is calming down faster than the chain has repriced.
The setup: Jul 17 320/290 put spread

[Paul @sellthefear]

Top names on my volatility board today. Ranked by IV Rank, IV premium to realized vol, vol stability, and term structure — not by stock fundamentals.

TXN — IV Rank 67, IV +38%
MAR — IV Rank 69, IV +18%
BKR — IV Rank 59, IV +44%
ARKK — IV Rank 67, IV +15%
FANG — IV Rank 70, IV +8%
AXP — IV Rank 28, IV +61%

[Paul @sellthefear]

If you sell options and you don't know what IV Rank is, you're paying retail for a wholesale product.
This is the single most important number for premium sellers. Most new traders ignore it. Here's what it is and why it changes everything.

When you sell a put, you're selling insurance.
Like any insurance product, the premium has a "price." Sometimes that price is rich. Sometimes it's cheap. The question is: how do you tell?

Take any stock. Look at its implied volatility over the last 12 months. Find the highest IV reading and the lowest.
IV Rank tells you where TODAY sits on that scale, from 0 to 100.
IV Rank 80 = current IV is in the top 20% of the past year.

Why this matters:
Implied volatility is mean-reverting. It oscillates around a long-run average. When it spikes, it usually falls back. When it crashes, it usually climbs back.
Sellers want to sell when it's spiked. Not when it's crashed.

The mistake most new put-sellers make:
They look at the dollar premium and think "this is a lot, I'll take it."
$5.00 on a $100 stock looks great. But if IV Rank is 15, that "rich" premium is actually historically cheap. You're getting paid bottom-of-cycle prices for top-of-cycle risk.

The fix is one filter:
Don't sell premium unless IV Rank > 30. Strong setups start at 50+. Top-decile opportunities are 80+.
This single rule eliminates more bad trades than any other filter I run.

Where to find it (free):
Tastytrade shows IV Rank natively in the trade page. Most brokers do.
If yours doesn't: https://t.co/QmmfPaFucB shows it for free. So does barchart.

One caveat: IV Rank isn't a green light. It's a filter.
A stock can sit at IV Rank 95 because the market is correctly pricing event risk you don't know about. The number tilts odds — it doesn't guarantee them.

@MarketChmln @Barchart @tastytrade #options #bullbear

[Paul @sellthefear]

Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day.
A few notes for premium sellers heading into the long weekend:
→ 3 calendar days of theta decay, 1 trading day. Short premium benefits, but the IV crush you're hoping for doesn't show up until Tuesday's open.
→ Tuesday gap risk is real. Three days of headlines, one repricing event.
→ Earnings names reporting Tue-Thu (CRM, DELL, NTAP, HPQ, COST) — size accordingly into the print.
Honoring those who served. Markets reopen Tuesday.

[Paul @sellthefear]

15 names where IV30 is materially above HV20 right now — i.e. options are pricing more vol than the stock is actually delivering:
NTAP +103%
CVNA +80%
ULTA +78%
SMTC +62%
LULU +62%
AXP +51%
ADBE +50%
ORCL +42%
NKE +40%
STLD +39%
This is where premium sellers historically find edge.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Liberation day part 2?

[Paul @sellthefear]

I suppose yesterday's drop was somewhat expected.

[Paul @sellthefear]

Metals & Mining (XME, SPSIMM)
+6.2% on the week, RSI ~79 → fully overbought
This is inflation / capex / China-stabilization flow.
Still leadership, but risk of sharp mean reversion is rising.

Industrials (S5INDU)
+3.0%, RSI 74 → strong, broad participation.
This is real economy optimism, not speculative excess.
One of the highest-quality leadership groups right now.

Semiconductors (SOX)
+3.8%, RSI 74 → top of medium-term range
Still driving the index, but increasingly fragile.
Any Tech correction will start here.