Semahore

[Sridhar Ramesh @RadishHarmers]

In July, I asked a couple model theorist friends of mine what they considered the major open problems of logic. They both mentioned the stable forking conjecture. This has now been resolved using ChatGPT.

https://t.co/ESmt68K6yB

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

Fresh figures: Over the past (complete) 28 days, there have been six days where more than 10 million barrels of crude oil departed via the USN Blockade Line.

As you can see, the average daily number is 7.54 Mbpd (down from 17.67 Mbpd back in Jan & Feb 2026).

Of that amount, 5.04 Mbpd comes out via the SoH while another 2.49 Mbpd comes out of the oil terminals located along the GoO.

#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

PS: We are so done with this topic right now. Moving on.

[Hiroki Shibata @hiroki_shibata_]

https://t.co/SMnCuXHJkW
新作出ました！
すべての入力文字列を部分文字列として含む最短の文字列を求める最短超文字列問題において、単純な貪欲法の解が最適解の2倍より長くなることはない、という約40年間未解決だった予想に対し、（AIの力を借り）初の反例を与えることで予想を解決しました。

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

Crude oil exports during August 2026 vs the immediate pre-war baseline of January & February 2026.

- Iran: -100%
- Iraq (Basrah and via Baniyas, Syria): -36%
- Kuwait: -36%
- Qatar: -48%
- Saudi Arabia (both coasts): -48%
- UAE (both coasts): -0.02%

#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

[Semahore @Semahore11]

@NicoleGrajewski Babak is not a reliable source.

[Egypt's Intel Observer @EGYOSINT]

And the hangar believed to have been struck at Muwaffaq al-Salti AB, with the black mark thought to be a burn scar from last night's attack, wasn't actually hit. The same mark can be spotted several times in imagery from weeks ago, disappearing and reappearing.

[Brian Everstine @beverstine]

🧐

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.

#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

[Jason Brodsky @JasonMBrodsky]

The regime in #Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is eroding: "Nearly 200 ships navigated the Strait of Hormuz last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center."

https://t.co/Z2PS79krpC

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

My estimates for the fertility rates by province in Iran for 2025. While the TFR of Sistan and Balochestan is more than double the national rate, there are already three provinces with a sub-1.0 rate.
The TFR of the Tehran metropolitan area (Tehran and Alborz province) is 1.02.

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Implied Hormuz flow of 9.3 and 5.2 mbpd over the last two days, about a million barrels of this were product, rest was crude. There were also more upward revisions to earlier days, so the 7d average rises to 6.4 mbpd.

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

La Russie 🇷🇺 mène en ce moment même une attaque massive de drones et de missiles contre l'Ukraine 🇺🇦

Depuis le début de l'année, plus de 1 300 missiles ont été lancés contre l'Ukraine, soit au moins 5 fois plus que le nombre de missiles ASTER fournis à l'Ukraine.

Pour rappel, la production française 🇫🇷 est de moins de 100 missiles anti-aériens par mois et les stocks sont probablement inférieurs au millier d'exemplaires. Depuis plusieurs mois, l'Ukraine manque cruellement d'intercepteurs. La quasi-totalité des lanceurs européens (SAMP-T, IRIS-T, NASAMS...) sont vides depuis bien longtemps (et ces batteries ne sont pas vraiment réputées comme très efficaces) et les stocks de PAC-3 sont pratiquement terminés.

Depuis le début de l'année, la Russie a donc lancé 40 000 drones d'attaques (70% de Geran et 30% de Gerbera/Parody) et 1 300 missiles de tous types. En termes de production, on parle d'environ 200 missiles russes qui sortent des usines chaque mois et environ 6 000 drones Geran. Avec l'arrivée de plusieurs drones jet, les Geran-4, Geran-5 et Banderol, il devient plus difficile d'intercepter les vagues de drones. C'est donc des centaines de missiles à "bas coût" en plus qui sortent des usines chaque mois.

Pendant ce temps en France, on essaie de nous faire croire que nous sommes passés en économie de guerre et que nous suivons en direct les enseignements de la guerre à l'Est…

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Iran fired 5 ballistic missiles at Jordan, 10 Patriot missiles were used to intercept.

[jerry @jerrrrrrryyyyy]

Great proof but is there a way to get gpt to not write in this annoying eigenprompt prose

[Semahore @Semahore11]

@phl43 Is this a problem unique to liberal imperialists? Don’t Leninists, Trotskyists, and Maoists also ultimately seek to achieve communism by exporting violence? If an ideology no longer seeks to expand, that in itself suggests that it has exhausted its vitality.

[Balázs Pozsgay @pozsgaybalazs]

Crazy times! On July 22 we found a solution to one of the five major problems in quantum information theory usig AI. The problem is distillability or un-distillability of Werner states. We checked the computations and they are correct.

The really crazy thing is this: just around this time there were 2 other groups who cracked this. First there was a group who just recently posted a paper about this on arxiv, it appeared on July 23. Second, there was an announcement from a different group yesterday (July 24) with no arxiv but a public overleaf. We can prove that we had the result before the arxiv paper appeared, and we can post our new paper on monday, it can appear on tuesday. So everybody was pretty much around the same time.

Interestingly, our proof is different from the one on arxiv.

AI model: ChatGPT 5.6 Sol
Human authors: Thomas C. Fraser, Felix Huber, BP and István Vona

[Pooya Hatami @Pooyahat]

Can we stop it with the “Instant PhD/Instant tenure” tweets for AI results? It makes academia sound like a bounty system for famous problems and undermines the sustained research, teaching, mentorship, and service those credentials are supposed to represent.

[Semahore @Semahore11]

@phl43 Lol, I don’t think Chinese nationalists would be too fond of using PPP-based measures, because under that metric Taiwan’s per capita living standard would appear higher than those of the Nordic countries, while the gap between India and China would look much smaller.

[Steven Fortson @zaphod58]

The two EC-130s that were believed to have been hit or damaged in the Iranian attack were not. Both returned to Davis Monthan last week. The one video I saw of the arrival didn’t show any obvious signs of damage repair.

[Semahore @Semahore11]

@predict_addict What do you mean by referring ti USSR math?
Jean Bourgain was not a Russian. And the geometric measure theory traditions behind this year’s fields medals come from both EU & US. Stupid AI bro should not talk about
math.