serena

6+ years / 872+ protocols analyzed
+310 due diligence processes led
head of cross-asset strategy research at ms over 18 years

[serena @serenatanng]

2026 in one line: stocks priced earnings, bonds priced oil.

s&p +12% ytd, q3 eps growth est. ~29%. 10y from <4% in march to 5.25%, fed hiking into it, brent still ~$100.

both can't be right for long. history says bonds usually win these.

[serena @serenatanng]

10y ust at ~5.25%, highest since 2007. 30y above 5.6%, levels last seen in 2002. even a soft pce (3.4% vs 3.7% exp) didn't help bonds. oil +42% on the quarter keeps inflation risk alive.

>market still pricing a dec hike.

curious how long equities keep ignoring this.

[serena @serenatanng]

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