waad

private investor

[John Michael Pennington @lamichaelpenny]

I haven't posted here in years. Tomorrow's SK Hynix listing is worth breaking the silence.

It prices tonight — reportedly $149/ADR, a ~$26.5B raise. If that holds, it passes Alibaba as the largest US listing by a foreign company ever.

But it's an ADR offering, not a traditional IPO. And buried in the prospectus is a structural quirk most people aren't thinking about: the US line is built to trade at a persistent premium to the Korean one.

I traded ADR arb in Asian markets for a living. Here, it all comes down to one word: headroom. 🧵

[waad @sergioomax]

@rhomboid1MF The irony of it being they outperformed for a long stretch

[waad @sergioomax]

Fundsmith doing a full remodel of the portfolio.

[waad @sergioomax]

@rhomboid1MF They‘re wildly more successful than me, so they know more at least. I actually admire them “admitting” they missed the change in market dynamics and re-positioning. At the AGM all the talk was about how underperforming leads to outperforming.

[waad @sergioomax]

Now this is just wrong. Unloaded most of my Hynix position. It has been great. Will watch the US listing from the sidelines I think

[Jukan @jukan05]

OFFICIAL: SAMSUNG OVERTAKES NVIDIA TO BECOME THE MOST PROFITABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD

[waad @sergioomax]

With new capital they would increase capex.
Or should we just believe the story as is? In this case, some people think this is bearish semis because meta would stop capex. But to be able to compete with the hyperscalers, Meta knows it has to reach scale -> bullish semis

[waad @sergioomax]

Having a great day. Can't wait for Korea to open and go -10% on my SKHY position. With this one you gotta respect momo, but rationally I think this green light for Meta Compute is bullish semis. Did Zuck leaked it to increase $META share price to be able to go the Google route?

[waad @sergioomax]

Being pumped again at the end of the quarter, just a coincidence…

[HF Best Ideas @StockCompil]

Alta Fox has published a 28-page report on XPEL $XPEL :

• Alta Fox is making a concentrated long case on XPEL Inc. and expects to benefit from share appreciation, with the entire letter centered on why XPEL remains a high-conviction position.

• The core thesis is that XPEL is a high-quality share gainer in the underpenetrated paint protection film aftermarket: the brand is strong, and proprietary DAP software creates customer stickiness that helps defend the moat.

• Alta Fox’s macro view is that affordability headwinds are easing and consumer awareness is rising, supported by Google Trends and dealer checks. That combination, plus still-low penetration, supports a view that PPF can expand from mid-single digits and keep driving sustained high-single-digit organic growth.

• The firm is explicitly more constructive than the market on the operating leverage story: management is targeting vertical integration and other initiatives to lift gross margins toward ~52–54% and EBIT margins from ~13% in FY25 to ~24–28% by FY28, and Alta Fox argues much of that upside is not yet reflected in the stock.

• On valuation, Alta Fox says XPEL trades near historical trough multiples at ~18x NTM versus a long-term average of ~30x, making the setup attractive if execution holds and the multiple rerates.

• Alta Fox frames the stock through scenario analysis, with bear/base/bull FY28 outcomes that imply revenue CAGR of roughly 4–12% and EPS ranging roughly from $2.35 to $5.49, with buybacks and margin expansion called out as major EPS drivers.

• The letter is also a direct rebuttal to skeptics: Alta Fox argues that strategic entrants and prior short reports have not materially damaged XPEL’s moat.

• Another contrarian angle is strategic optionality: Alta Fox says XPEL’s roughly $1.1B EV makes it an attractive bolt-on M&A target for large coatings or auto suppliers.

• The key risks are macro recession or weaker vehicle sales, execution risk around vertical integration, and the chance that a larger competitor enters aggressively; Alta Fox says the mitigants are accelerating attach rates, optionality between M&A and building internally, and management’s track record.

• Near-term catalysts include more clarity from management on vertical integration, visible EPS inflection, expanded sell-side coverage, and possible strategic acquisition interest.

Read the full report→ https://t.co/bMUHDKvtKV

[waad @sergioomax]

Do we get the ramp without having had the drop?

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. AND IRAN AGREE TO HALT STRIKES, SET TO HOLD TALKS LATER THIS WEEK – AXIOS, CITING U.S. OFFICIALS

[waad @sergioomax]

and continue having exposure to this new era. $TSM <20 PE 2027E. Is that expensive?… Sure China risk. But if an invasion does happen, are you going to be safe in S&P?…

[waad @sergioomax]

In these times in the market I think a lot about the late 2010’s discussions about cloud computing. Everybody putting numbers in their models and doing lots of math, when the reality was that the growth would turn out to be secular. You just had to hold on to some “easy” ideas

[waad @sergioomax]

Lots of twitteratti expecting a crash in semi. Are $TSM and $ASML not going to ride the wave until 2030 or longer? I reckon yes. I guess what I’m saying is that you can always try to read the market and guess when to sell and pay taxes, but I rather just watch for moat erosion

[waad @sergioomax]

@SouthernValue95 @dylan522p Constraints are people and time, not money

[waad @sergioomax]

Everybody being bearish memory after Sk Hynix and Micron just hit ATH and Apple (!) having to resort to the WH to fight back somewhat tells me the odds are we are going higher

[waad @sergioomax]

$NVDA now <20 PE NTM

[waad @sergioomax]

@WaterworldCapi1 Doesn’t go up with AI stocks, goes down like an AI stock

[waad @sergioomax]

@RihardJarc hopefully not exactly like 2022, still ways to go...

[waad @sergioomax]

Lower multiples for $LMT than before the war, even though the need to re-stock and defend is higher