Sergio Cabrera

Profitable +EV bettor turning odds into wins. Sharing value betting strategies. Join the journey.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

After 10,000 bets, data beats luck.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

Check the prices (odds) at your sportsbook.

Over at 1.90
Under at 1.75

Means a 9.77% vig.

In other words, you’re paying 9.77% of your stake for placing that bet.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

Those Norway ML odds are definitely influenced by recency bias.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@PlusEV Let’s say ML and Totals.

(I don’t know much about football)

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

My Weekly Betting Stats
Sep 14 - Sep 20

ROI: -9.49%
CLV: 9.53%
Avg. Odds: 2.69

Got hit by variance this week.

Still, happy about the CLV.

Key learning:

Stake management will allow your bankroll to survive during negative streaks.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@TrailBlazin5 @AlexMonahaqyrt Absolutely!

Not saying this is the right way to go.

This guy won bc he cashed out.

But how many lost on impossible parlays today?

Not promoting irrational gambling, but not sure if I can judge a whole person’s character just because of cashing out.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@premierleague Another long season for Spurs.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

A few thoughts on my sports betting weekend:

1. You can stress over the guesswork, but in the end nobody can know the future.

2. The only way to make money in sports betting is with an edge, so base your bets on math and data and eventually you’ll make money.

3. Everyone is a betting “expert” on social media.

4. Act fast to grab value in the market, but remain disciplined and patient during uncertainty.

5. Sports betting is profitable for anyone who’s willing to listen.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

⏰ Early value?

Or closer to kickoff?

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

There’s something seriously wrong with Tottenham.

Does anyone have any idea why?

I’m curious how it could have come to this.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@TipsterEdge Exactly!

You’re so worried about being fast, that you miss focus on details.

Somehow I have the feeling it’s not worth it.

I prefer a value betting strategy.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

Arbitrage betting can be a profitable strategy.

But it isn’t risk free as some claim.

In my experience, here’s what I’ve learned:

• Speed: Arbitrage requires placing 2 bets (at least), odds can change during the process.

• Limitations: At least one bet has to be profitable for an arbitrage to exist. So bookies will eventually flag and limit your account.

• Liquidity: If you aren’t careful enough, you may place the first bet with a high stake, but the second bookie won’t take a large stake for the hedge bet.

• Obscure leagues, markets: for low leagues stuff happens. Closed markets, void bets, event cancelled, etc.

• Profitability: High profit arbs don’t last long, you’ll most likely find 2% or low % arbs. This means risking a high stake for a small “sure” profit.

Have you faced these issues with arbitrage betting?

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@SharpPicksApp Absolutely, anyone willing to play long enough will become a profitable bettor.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

Besiktas 4 - 1 Marseille
Europa League

Besiktas ML:

opening @ 2.42 -> closing @ 1.76

Got a dropping odds alert and managed to place a bet on a soft book @ 2.08 (with +EV at that time)

Won or lost, that’s irrelevant.

Focus on finding value in the market, beat the closing line value (CLV).

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@12Xpert Top leagues and high liquidity markets are out of the question.

But, what about a low, obscure league?

Then it would be feasible to develop a model where it “knows” more than Pinnacle, right?

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@thebetlab_io Thanks.

I’ve been testing late moves as well as opening moves.

Early value with more caution, of course.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@EVergreenBets In all fairness, the average bettor won’t even listen.

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

An international break just 2 months after the FIFA World Cup?

[Sergio Cabrera @SergioPlusEV]

@TrollFootball Fan’s reaction was the best 😂