Matt Downs

Entrepreneur | I help bettors beat sportsbooks using market inefficiencies, Built software to find +EV bets automatically | Link Below👇

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

The final tally is in....

I made $14,718 as a part time sports bettor in the month of November.

The best part is, I spend 1-2 hours a day placing bets.

Want to know my process? Here's a thread on exactly how I do it....

A 🧵 [🔖bookmark for later]

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Explain to me how this team doesn’t automatically go 82-0?????????

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

AI costs are getting insane.

I don’t even use api access nor tokens and am still getting charged….

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Great call

[Hermes Mendez @Collasped4Game]

@PlusEV Dude u go by odds , I got huge ball knowledge, this is a horrible play to go lower Carter Bryant will go over this line . Fading him is horrible idea

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@8_iMissKirk_8 Why?

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

The BEST PrizePicks play on the board right now.

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

If you think this guy is getting ANY playing time in the finals, you're out of your mind💀

His projection will keep going down each game....

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Ok

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Live stream Nuke cash✅💥

Off to another great start tonight….

Thank you @UpsideTools

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Link: https://t.co/aXfA8Bm4yo

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Champagnie unders are banned bro

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@hidetheweeeeed That’s so cap

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

If you think this guy is getting ANY playing time in the finals, you're out of your mind💀

His projection will keep going down each game....

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@hidetheweeeeed Why?

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Link to tail: https://t.co/rltivBGLb7

Here's the free discord server to tail more plays: https://t.co/E9lLZMkQ40

Play #1 - Josh Hart UNDER 12.5 Points: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: https://t.co/U80n69YxFC:

This is the part most people miss when they only look at the slip.

Pick6 has Hart under 12.5 priced at the standard 3 leg implied price of -122, but Novig is already sitting at -138 on the same exact line.

That is the cleanest direct comp on the board.

The rest of the market is also telling the same story because a bunch of books have already moved down to 11.5, which makes the under harder to hit than the 12.5 we are getting on Pick6.

The optimizer has this at 55.6% to hit, while a standard Pick6 3 leg needs around 54.95% per leg.

This is why line shopping matters. Same player. Same side. Different number. One app is clearly behind.

If you only open Pick6, this looks normal. Once you compare it to the market, the edge shows up.

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Kornet still available on Pick6 6X🎯

Josh Hart under is the leg I'm focused on here though....

Novig is already making you pay -138 on the same exact 12.5 number.

Pick6 is still giving it to us at the standard 3 leg price.

Link to tail in Replies 👇

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

If you think this guy is getting ANY playing time in the finals, you're out of your mind💀

His projection will keep going down each game....

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Here's exactly how I observe player props when comparing DFS app projections (Like Prizepicks & Pick6) vs the Market👇

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@KJTreyy He actually might💀

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@Mackman18623929 for sure....but these are the FINALS

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@Trident_DFS Yeah and anyone with eyeballs should agree

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@Mackman18623929 You think Wemby is going to come out at all????

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

@Gleebbymeez MY SPURS ARE GOING TO WHAT

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Luke Kornet UNDER 6.5 PRA is +EV.

This data was pulled from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer, which compares PrizePicks props back to sportsbook and exchange prices in real time.

PrizePicks is giving us the fixed payout price at -119, but the market is charging heavier for the same under across the board.

Novig -130.
ProphetX -138.
DraftKings -123.
Fliff -125.
ParlayPlay -133.
PropBuilder -130.
Rebet -130.
Sleeper -135.
etc.

@UpsideTools Optimizer has it 54.3% to hit.